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Measuring Remittances using Multi-Purpose Household Surveys: the LSMS experience Gero Carletto Development Research Group The World Bank (with Claudia Rodriguez)
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What is an LSMS? DISTINCTIVE FEATURES Multi-Topic Questionnaire Multiple Instruments Consumption-based welfare measure Quality Control Demand-driven
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Main objectives of LSMS Surveys Measuring and Monitoring Welfare Poverty and policy analysis Capacity building Methodological validation (LSMS IV) Consumption, subjective poverty, migration, … Income (remittances)
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Review: main methodologies Transfer/remittances module Household (total transfer; by recipient) Individual (remitter) Other income HH level Closed vs. open Individual migrant’s rosters Combination
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Individual level transfers (Nepal 2002/03)
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Other Income, HH level (Vietnam 2004)
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Individual migrant’s rosters GHANA LSS 2005/06, ALBANIA LSMS 2005, BULGARIA MTHS 2007 Current household members Present (past migration) Absent Former Household members Other individuals
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No. of surveys With remittance information 68 Unable to differentiate bet/w domestic and int'l remittances 19 No remittance information 4 Total 91 Most survey contain some remittance info …
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Large heterogeneity in methods … MethodNo.% Transfers/ Remittances (Indiv. level)3450.0 Transfers/ Remittances (HH level)811.8 Individual level (migrant roster)45.9 Other income1927.9 Other (social protection)34.4 TOTAL68100.0
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Some differences in reference periods No. of surveys% Last 12 months4972.1 Last year34.4 Last 14 months11.5 Last 6 months34.4 Last 3 months11.5 Last 30 days11.5 Multiple57.4 Flexible57.4 Total68100.0
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Country X, 2004
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Country X, 2004 (cont’d)
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Country Y, 1997
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Any improvements over time? Albania 2002-2005 Bulgaria 1995-2007 BiH 2001-2004 Ghana 1987-2005 Nicaragua 1993-2001 Vietnam 1993-2004
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CountryMethodology % HHs w/ remittances Vietnam 1992 Individual level remittances5.0 Vietnam 1997 Individual level remittances6.0 Vietnam 2004 Other income (HH level)5.0
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BoP vs. survey estimates
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Bulgaria MTHS 2007 (Sample: 4,300 HHs) Current HH members (1) Former HH members (2) Other income module (3) (2)+(3) HH with migrants205*458 HH with migrants sending remittances 64223138334 Average remittances received by HH (yearly) ??? U$2,186US$779US$1,993
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Conclusions Most surveys contain info on remittances but … Little consistency in methodology Often different components and groups of individuals included Ambiguities and double counting “Large” underestimation? Lack of benchmark! Some progress, but … Limited to few countries: demand-driven?? Shortage of best practices
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Conclusions (cont’d) Reference period: 12 months (?) Importance of placement (?) Individual vs. household-level HH membership Distinguish transfers from abroad Multiple modules Temporary migrants and returnees: info (last 12 months) on country of work, length of spell abroad, occupation, wages De-coupling remittances from migration???
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