1. Strategic Capacity Planning for Products and Services McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2012 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Instructor Slides You should be able to: 1. Summarize the importance of capacity planning 2. Discuss ways of defining and measuring capacity 3. Describe the determinants of effective capacity 4. Discuss the major considerations related to developing capacity alternatives 5. Briefly describe approaches that are useful for evaluating capacity alternatives 5-2

3. Instructor Slides Capacity The upper limit or ceiling on the load that an operating unit can handle Capacity needs include Equipment Space Employee skills 5-3

4. Instructor Slides Goal To achieve a match between the long-term supply capabilities of an organization and the predicted level of long-term demand Overcapacity  operating costs that are too high Undercapacity  strained resources and possible loss of customers 5-4

5. Instructor Slides Key Questions: What kind of capacity is needed? How much is needed to match demand? When is it needed? Related Questions: How much will it cost? What are the potential benefits and risks? Are there sustainability issues? Should capacity be changed all at once, or through several smaller changes Can the supply chain handle the necessary changes? 5-5

6. Instructor Slides Capacity decisions 1. impact the ability of the organization to meet future demands 2. affect operating costs 3. are a major determinant of initial cost 4. often involve long-term commitment of resources 5. can affect competitiveness 6. affect the ease of management 7. have become more important and complex due to globalization 8. need to be planned for in advance due to their consumption of financial and other resources 5-6

7. Instructor Slides Design capacity Maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed for Effective capacity Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time, maintenance, and scrap Actual output Rate of output actually achieved--cannot exceed effective capacity. 5-7

8. Instructor Slides Measure capacity in units that do not require updating Why is measuring capacity in dollars problematic? Two useful definitions of capacity Design capacity The maximum output rate or service capacity an operation, process, or facility is designed for Effective capacity Design capacity minus allowances such as personal time and maintenance 5-8

9. Instructor Slides Actual output The rate of output actually achieved It cannot exceed effective capacity Efficiency Utilization Measured as percentages 5-9

10. Instructor Slides Design Capacity = 50 trucks per day Effective Capacity = 40 trucks per day Actual Output = 36 trucks per day 5-10

11. Instructor Slides Facilities Product and service factors Process factors Human factors Policy factors Operational factors Supply chain factors External factors 5-11

12. Instructor Slides Strategies are typically based on assumptions and predictions about: Long-term demand patterns Technological change Competitor behavior 5-12

13. Instructor Slides Capacity Cushion Extra capacity used to offset demand uncertainty Capacity cushion = 100% - Utilization Capacity cushion strategy Organizations that have greater demand uncertainty typically have greater capacity cushion Organizations that have standard products and services generally have less capacity cushion 5-13

14. Instructor Slides 1. Estimate future capacity requirements 2. Evaluate existing capacity and facilities; identify gaps 3. Identify alternatives for meeting requirements 4. Conduct financial analyses 5. Assess key qualitative issues 6. Select the best alternative for the long term 7. Implement alternative chosen 8. Monitor results 5-14

15. Instructor Slides Long-term considerations relate to overall level of capacity requirements Require forecasting demand over a time horizon and converting those needs into capacity requirements Short-term considerations relate to probable variations in capacity requirements Less concerned with cycles and trends than with seasonal variations and other variations from average 5-15

16. Instructor Slides Calculating processing requirements requires reasonably accurate demand forecasts, standard processing times, and available work time 5-16

17. Instructor Slides Service capacity planning can present a number of challenges related to: The need to be near customers Convenience The inability to store services Cannot store services for consumption later The degree of demand volatility Volume and timing of demand Time required to service individual customers 5-17

18. Instructor Slides Strategies used to offset capacity limitations and that are intended to achieve a closer match between supply and demand Pricing Promotions Discounts Other tactics to shift demand from peak periods into slow periods 5-18

19. Instructor Slides Once capacity requirements are determined, the organization must decide whether to produce a good or service itself or outsource Factors to consider: Available capacity Expertise Quality considerations The nature of demand Cost Risks 5-19

20. Instructor Slides Things that can be done to enhance capacity management: Design flexibility into systems Take stage of life cycle into account Take a “big-picture” approach to capacity changes Prepare to deal with capacity “chunks” Attempt to smooth capacity requirements Identify the optimal operating level Choose a strategy if expansion is involved 5-20

21. Instructor Slides Leading Build capacity in anticipation of future demand increases Following Build capacity when demand exceeds current capacity Tracking Similar to the following strategy, but adds capacity in relatively small increments to keep pace with increasing demand 5-21

22. Instructor Slides An operation in a sequence of operations whose capacity is lower than that of the other operations 5-22

23. Instructor Slides Optimal Output Rate 5-23

24. Instructor Slides Economies of Scale If output rate is less than the optimal level, increasing the output rate results in decreasing average per unit costs Diseconomies of Scale If the output rate is more than the optimal level, increasing the output rate results in increasing average per unit costs 5-24

25. Instructor Slides Economies of Scale If output rate is less than the optimal level, increasing the output rate results in decreasing average per unit costs Reasons for economies of scale: Fixed costs are spread over a larger number of units Construction costs increase at a decreasing rate as facility size increases Processing costs decrease due to standardization 5-25

26. Instructor Slides Diseconomies of Scale If the output rate is more than the optimal level, increasing the output rate results in increasing average per unit costs Reasons for diseconomies of scale Distribution costs increase due to traffic congestion and shipping from a centralized facility rather than multiple smaller facilities Complexity increases costs Inflexibility can be an issue Additional levels of bureaucracy 5-26

27. Instructor Slides Minimum cost & optimal operating rate are functions of size of production unit. 5-27

28. Instructor Slides Constraint Something that limits the performance of a process or system in achieving its goals Categories Market Resource Material Financial Knowledge or competency Policy 5-28

29. Instructor Slides 1. Identify the most pressing constraint 2. Change the operation to achieve maximum benefit, given the constraint 3. Make sure other portions of the process are supportive of the constraint 4. Explore and evaluate ways to overcome the constraint 5. Repeat the process until the constraint levels are at acceptable levels 5-29

30. Instructor Slides Alternatives should be evaluated from varying perspectives Economic Is it economically feasible? How much will it cost? How soon can we have it? What will operating and maintenance costs be? What will its useful life be? Will it be compatible with present personnel and present operations? Non-economic Public opinion 5-30

31. Instructor Slides Techniques for Evaluating Alternatives Cost-volume analysis Financial analysis Decision theory Waiting-line analysis Simulation 5-31

32. Instructor Slides Cost-volume analysis Focuses on the relationship between cost, revenue, and volume of output Fixed Costs (FC) tend to remain constant regardless of output volume Variable Costs (VC) vary directly with volume of output VC = Quantity(Q) x variable cost per unit (v) Total Cost TC = FC + VC Total Revenue (TR) TR = revenue per unit (R) x Q 5-32

33. Instructor Slides BEP The volume of output at which total cost and total revenue are equal Profit (P) = TR – TC = R x Q – (FC +v x Q) = Q(R – v) – FC 5-33

34. Break-Even Analysis A standard approach to choosing among alternative processes or equipment Model seeks to determine the point in units produced (and sold) where we will start making profit on the process or equipment Model seeks to determine the point in units produced (and sold) where total revenue and total cost are equal

35. Break-Even Analysis (Continued) This formula can be used to find any of its components algebraically if the other parameters are known Break-even Demand = Purchase cost of process or equipment Price per unit - Cost per unit or Total fixed costs of process or equipment Unit price to customer - Variable costs per unit Purchase cost of process or equipment Price per unit - Cost per unit or Total fixed costs of process or equipment Unit price to customer - Variable costs per unit

36. Break-Even Analysis (Continued) Example: Suppose you want to purchase a new computer that will cost $5,000. It will be used to process written orders from customers who will pay $25 each for the service. The cost of labor, electricity and the form used to place the order is $5 per customer. How many customers will we need to serve to permit the total revenue to break-even with our costs? Break-even Demand: = Total fixed costs of process or equip. Unit price to customer – Variable costs =5,000/(25-5) =250 customers Example: Suppose you want to purchase a new computer that will cost $5,000. It will be used to process written orders from customers who will pay $25 each for the service. The cost of labor, electricity and the form used to place the order is $5 per customer. How many customers will we need to serve to permit the total revenue to break-even with our costs? Break-even Demand: = Total fixed costs of process or equip. Unit price to customer – Variable costs =5,000/(25-5) =250 customers

37. Instructor Slides 5-37

38. Instructor Slides Capacity alternatives may involve step costs, which are costs that increase stepwise as potential volume increases. The implication of such a situation is the possible occurrence of multiple break-even quantities. 5-38

39. Instructor Slides Cost-volume analysis is a viable tool for comparing capacity alternatives if certain assumptions are satisfied One product is involved Everything produced can be sold The variable cost per unit is the same regardless of volume Fixed costs do not change with volume changes, or they are step changes The revenue per unit is the same regardless of volume Revenue per unit exceeds variable cost per unit 5-39

40. Instructor Slides Cash flow The difference between cash received from sales and other sources, and cash outflow for labor, material, overhead, and taxes Present value The sum, in current value, of all future cash flow of an investment proposal 5-40

41. 5S-41 Decision Theory and Decision Trees Decision tree: a Schematic representation of the available alternatives and their possible consequences. Useful for analyzing situations that involve sequential decisions See Figure 5S.1

42. 5S-42 Format of a Decision Tree State of nature 1 B Payoff 1 State of nature 2 Payoff 2 Payoff 3 2 Choose A’ 1 Choose A’ 2 Payoff 6 State of nature 2 2 Payoff 4 Payoff 5 Choose A’ 3 Choose A’ 4 State of nature 1 Choose A’ Choose A’ 2 1 Decision Point Chance Event Figure 5S.1

43. Decision Theory Example of a Decision Tree Problem A glass factory specializing in crystal is experiencing a substantial backlog, and the firm's management is considering three courses of action: A) Arrange for subcontracting B) Construct new facilities C) Do nothing (no change) The correct choice depends largely upon demand, which may be low, medium, or high. By consensus, management estimates the respective demand probabilities as 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4. A glass factory specializing in crystal is experiencing a substantial backlog, and the firm's management is considering three courses of action: A) Arrange for subcontracting B) Construct new facilities C) Do nothing (no change) The correct choice depends largely upon demand, which may be low, medium, or high. By consensus, management estimates the respective demand probabilities as 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4.

44. Example of a Decision Tree Problem (Continued): The Payoff Table The management also estimates the profits when choosing from the three alternatives (A, B, and C) under the differing probable levels of demand. These profits, in thousands of dollars are presented in the table below:

45. Example of a Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 1. We start by drawing the three decisions A B C

46. Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 2. Add our possible states of nature, probabilities, and payoffs A B C High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $200k $25k -$120k High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $60k $40k $20k

47. Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 3. Determine the expected value of each decision High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) A A $90k $50k $10k EV A =0.4(90)+0.5(50)+0.1(10)=$62k $62k

48. Example of Decision Tree Problem (Continued): Step 4. Make decision High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) A B C High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k $200k $25k -$120k $60k $40k $20k $62k $80.5k $46k Alternative B generates the greatest expected profit, so our choice is B or to construct a new facility

49. 5S-49 Expected Value of Perfect Information Expected value of perfect information: the difference between the expected payoff under certainty and the expected payoff under risk Expected value of perfect information Expected payoff under certainty Expected payoff under risk = -

50. 5S-50 Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity Analysis: Determining the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff Useful for decision makers to have some indication of how sensitive the choice of an alternative is to changes in one or more of these values

51. 5S-51 Sensitivity Analysis 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 A B C A bestC bestB best #1 Payoff#2 Payoff Sensitivity analysis: determine the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff Example S-8

52. Instructor Slides Capacity planning impacts all areas of the organization It determines the conditions under which operations will have to function Flexibility allows an organization to be agile It reduces the organization’s dependence on forecast accuracy and reliability Many organizations utilize capacity cushions to achieve flexibility Bottleneck management is one way by which organizations can enhance their effective capacities Capacity expansion strategies are important organizational considerations Expand-early strategy Wait-and-see strategy Capacity contraction is sometimes necessary Capacity disposal strategies become important under these conditions 5-52