1. 1 N ETWORK D EMANDS: A CCESS, U SE & P ERFORMANCE S AAD H AJ B AKRY, PhD, CEng, FIEE IT / N ETWORK P LANNING: Basic & Related Issues

2. 2 O BJECTIVES / C ONTENTS Main Points Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance A CCESS D EMANDS U SE D EMANDS P ERFORMANCE D EMANDS

3. 3 A CCESS D EMANDS Main Points Saad Haj Bakry A NALYSIS: Generic House Holds Business Offices Public Centers Mobile Access Internet Access Special Services Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance T YPES: P OINTS / R IGHTS C HANGE: Generic / Proportional Change A CCESS P ROVISIONING A CCESS D ISTRIBUTION C ASE S TUDIES

4. 4 Saad Haj Bakry T YPES OF A CCESS A CCESS P OINTS: Associated with Locations House Holds: H Business Offices: B Public Centers: C A CCESS P OINTS: Associated with Locations House Holds: H Business Offices: B Public Centers: C Access Demands A CCESS R IGHTS: Associated with Users Internet Access: N Mobile Access: M Special Access: S (Special Services) A CCESS R IGHTS: Associated with Users Internet Access: N Mobile Access: M Special Access: S (Special Services) Time : t Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Variables : Population: P Interest: I

5. 5 Saad Haj Bakry G ENERIC F UNCTION Access Demand: AD(t) Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance AD(t) = SF(t). I(t). P(t) Access Interest: I(t) Source Factor: SF(t) Depends on the specific source of demand Access Demands

6. 6 Saad Haj Bakry H OUSE H OLDS: H Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFH(t) = 1 / PH(t) Average number of people per house hold: PH(t) Average demand interest per house hold: IH(t) Access demands generated by house holds: ADH(t) ADH(t) = SFH(t). IH(t). P(t)

7. 7 Saad Haj Bakry B USINESS O FFICES: B Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFB(t) = WP(t) / WB(t) Proportion of Working Population: WP(t) Average demand interest per business office: IB(t) Access demands generated by business offices: ADB(t) ADB(t) = SFB(t). IB(t). P(t) Average number of working people per office: WB(t)

8. 8 Saad Haj Bakry P UBLIC C ENTERS: C Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFC(t) = 1 / PC(t) Average number of people per public center: PC(t) Average demand interest per public site: IC(t) Access demands generated by public sites: ADC(t) ADC(t) = SFC(t). IC(t). P(t)

9. 9 Saad Haj Bakry M OBILE A CCESS: M Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFM(t) = PM(t) Proportion of target population that may require mobile access: PM(t) Average demand interest among target population: IM(t) Demands for mobile access: ADM(t) ADM(t) = SFM(t). IM(t). P(t)

10. 10 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFN(t) = PN(t) Proportion of target population that may require Internet access: PN(t) Average demand interest among target population: IN(t) Demands for Internet access: ADN(t) ADN(t) = SFN(t). IN(t). P(t) I NTERNET A CCESS: N

11. 11 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Source factor: SFS(t) = PS(t) Proportion of target population that may require access to SS : PS(t) Average demand interest among target population: IS(t) Demands for SS access: ADS(t) ADS(t) = SFS(t). IS(t). P(t) S PECIAL S ERVICE: S

12. 12 Saad Haj Bakry E XAMPLES At Time: t = 0 A CCESS D EMANDS: ADH = 6 million ADB = 4 million ADC = 100,000 ADM = 6 million ADN = 4 million ASN = 1 million PH = 5 p/h WP = 0.4 WB = 4 p/b PC = 5,000 PM = 0.6 PN = 0.5 PS = 0.2 I NTEREST: IH = 1.5 a/h IB = 2 a/b IC = 25 a/c IM = 0.5 IN = 0.4 IS = 0.25 Network Demands: Access, Use, & PerformanceAccess Demands Total = 21.1 million P opulation: P = 20 million

13. 13 Saad Haj Bakry G ENERIC C HANGE Access Demand: AD(t) Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance ad(t) = [ AD(t+1) – AD(t) ] / AD(t) Proportional Change: ad(t) Factors of Change: Population / Interest / … Access Demands AD(T) = AD(0) [1+ad(t)]

14. 14 Saad Haj Bakry C ONSTANT P ROPORTIONAL C HANGE: 1/2 Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Proportional Change: ad(t) = ad = constant for all (t): t = 0 to t = T Access Demands AD(T) = AD(0) (1+ad) T Current State: AD(0) AD(0) = I(0) SF(0) P(0) AD(T) = I(T) SF(T) P(T) Target State: AD(T)

15. 15 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands AD(T) = AD(0) (1+ad) T C ONSTANT P ROPORTIONAL C HANGE: 2/2 Ln [AD(T)] = Ln [AD(0)] + T Ln (1+ad) x = { Ln [AD(T) - Ln [AD(0)] } / T ad = (e x -1)

16. 16 Saad Haj Bakry A CCESS P ROVISIONING Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands Average Annual Access Provisioning Requirements: ∆AD = [ AD(T) – AD(0) ] / T Access Provisioning Requirements (t): ∆AD(t) = ad(t) AD(t)

17. 17 Saad Haj Bakry C ASE S TUDY: 1/2 Network Demands: Access, Use, & PerformanceAccess Demands At t=0: no access Target: t = 2 / …. / t = 10 Population: P(0) = 20 m Factor Scenario (1) Scenario (2) P. growth: p3 %4 % P. sector: PM60 %70 % Interest0.50.7 Time ( Years) Annual Access Provisioning (m) Scenario (1) Scenario (2) 23.185.3 41.682.87 61.192.07 80.951.68 100.811.45

18. 18 Saad Haj Bakry C ASE S TUDY: 2/2 Network Demands: Access, Use, & PerformanceAccess Demands Target Time (years) Upper Limit Scenario Lower Limit Scenario Average Annual Access Provisioning Requirements (m)

19. 19 Saad Haj Bakry A CCESS D ISTRIBUTION Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands A4A4 A4A4 C OMMUNICATIONS S UB- N ETWORK : Connectivity: Topology A CCESS S ITES A CCESS S UB- N ETWORK A5A5 A5A5 A6A6 A6A6 A7A7 A7A7 A9A9 A9A9 A 10 A1A1 A1A1 A2A2 A2A2 A3A3 A3A3 A8A8 A8A8

20. 20 Saad Haj Bakry A CCESS D ISTRIBUTION P ROPORTIONS Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Access Demands a i = 100 (A i / A i ) Access Weights (%) Dealing with proportions rather than values A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A4A4 A5A5 A6A6 A7A7 A8A8 A9A9 A 10 SUMSUM A i a1a1 a2a2 a3a3 a4a4 a5a5 a6a6 a7a7 a8a8 a9a9 a 10 100

21. 21 Objective Saad Haj Bakry T RAFFIC G ENERATION: T IME S CALE T RAFFIC L OAD: M ATRIX V OLUMES P ROPORTIONS Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance U SE D EMANDS C ASE S TUDY: B USINESS T RANSACTIONS D ISTRIBUTED P OLICY C ENTRALIZED P OLICY

22. 22 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands T RAFFIC G ENERATION T WO R ANDOM P ROCESSES A RRIVAL OF D EMANDS: Random Distribution (Poisson Process) D URATION OF D EMANDS (Negative Exponential Distribution / Related to Poisson Process) A RRIVAL: of Calls (for Sessions); of Messages / Requests.. D URATION: of Calls (or Sessions); of Messages (Length)

23. 23 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands T IME S CALE Arrival of Demands: Poisson Distribution Service of Demands: Poisson Distribution A1 A2 A3 S1 S2 S3 Inter-Arrival Periods: Exponentially Distributed Service Periods: Exponentially Distributed

24. 24 Saad Haj Bakry T RAFFIC L OAD: M ATRIX Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A4A4 A5A5 A6A6 A7A7 A8A8 A9A9 A 10 A1A1 0 A 1,2 A 1,3 A 1,4 A 1,5 A 1,6 A 1,7 A 18 A 1,9 A 1,10 A2A2 A 2,1 0 A 2,3 A 2,4 Traffic loads are associated with “ access volumes ” & “ available services ” A3A3 A 3,1 A 3,2 0 A 3,4 A4A4 A 4,1 A 4,2 A 4,3 0 A5A5 A 5,1 A 5,2 A 5,3 A 5,4 0 A6A6 A 6,1 A 6,2 A 6,3 A 6,4 A 6,5 0 A7A7 A 7,1 A 7,2 A 7,3 A 7,4 A 7,5 0 A8A8 A 8,1 Traffic loads are related to “ business transactions ” 0 A9A9 A 9,1 0 A 10 A 10,1 0

25. 25 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands T RAFFIC L OAD: V OLUMES Generated Traffic at Site A X : G X = [ A X,j ] – A X,X Received Traffic at Site A x : V X = [ A i,X ] – A X,X Total “Generated / Received” Traffic G = [ A i,j ] – [ A i,i ] V = G

26. 26 Saad Haj Bakry T RAFFIC L OAD: P ROPORTIONS Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance a1a1 a2a2 a3a3 a4a4 a5a5 a6a6 a7a7 a8a8 a9a9 a 10 a1a1 0 a 1,2 a 1,3 a 1,4 a 1,5 a 1,6 a 1,7 a 18 a 1,9 a 1,10 a2a2 a 2,1 0 a 2,3 a 2,4 Traffic load proportions provides a “ relative view ” that may remain the same, even with growth / time. a3a3 a 3,1 a 3,2 0 a 3,4 a4a4 a 4,1 a 4,2 a 4,3 0 a5a5 a 5,1 a 5,2 a 5,3 a 5,4 0 a6a6 a 6,1 a 6,2 a 6,3 a 6,4 a 6,5 0 a7a7 a 7,1 a 7,2 a 7,3 a 7,4 a 7,5 0 a8a8 a 8,1 Traffic load proportions are useful for investigating “ future growth ” 0 a9a9 a 9,1 0 a 10 a 10,1 0 Use Demands

27. 27 Saad Haj Bakry C ASE S TUDY: B USINESS T RANSACTIONS Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance T WO E XTREMES Use Demands A3A3 A3A3 A1A1 A1A1 A4A4 A4A4 A5A5 A5A5 A2A2 A2A2 D ISTRIBUTED P OLICY A2A2 A2A2 A4A4 A4A4 A5A5 A5A5 A1A1 A1A1 A3A3 A3A3 C ENTRALIZED P OLICY Traffic generation would be proportional to the access weights of the two parties Traffic generation would be proportional to the access weights of one party

28. 28 Saad Haj Bakry C ASE S TUDY: D ISTRIBUTED P OLICY Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A4A4 A5A5 A1A1 0a 1.a 2 a 1.a 3 a 1.a 4 a 1.a 5 A2A2 a 2.a 1 0a 2.a 3 a 2.a 4 a 2.a 5 A3A3 a 3.a 1 a 3.a 2 0a 3.a 4 a 3.a 5 A4A4 a 4.a 1 a 4.a 2 a 4.a 3 0a 4.a 5 A5A5 a 5.a 1 a 5.a 2 a 5.a 3 a 5.a 4 0 a i (%). a j (%) = a i. a j (%) = [ (a i.a j ) / 100 ] %

29. 29 Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Use Demands A1A1 A2A2 A3A3 A4A4 A5A5 A1A1 0k 2.a 2 k 3.a 3 k 4.a 4 k 5.a 5 A2A2 a2a2 0000 A3A3 a3a3 0000 A4A4 a4a4 0000 A5A5 a5a5 0000 C ASE S TUDY: C ENTRALIZED P OLICY “k” is a scale factor associated with the response of the central site

30. 30 Main Points Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance P ERFORMANCE D EMANDS B ASIC I SSUES L OSS OF I NFORMATION A VAILABILITY C ONGESTION D ELAY I NFORMATION S ECURITY E VALUATIONS

31. 31 MeasuresDescription Performance Technology Capabilities. User Satisfaction Natural Feel Quantitative Parameters Clearly Defined (Mathematically) Evaluated Numerically Qualitative Parameters Like and Dislike. Ease of Use. Social and Behavioural Factors. Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance B ASIC I SSUES

32. 32 MeasureDescription MTBFMean Time Between Failures MTTRMean Time to Repair Availability The proportion of time when the system is available for use Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance A VAILABILITY

33. 33 MeasureDescription NOSNumber of Successful Attempts NOFNumber of Failed Attempts Congestion Service Levels Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance C ONGESTION

34. 34 MeasureDescription Elements (Point-to-Point) Processing /Queuing / Transmission / Propagation. End-to-End Source to Destination Delay (from Sending to Receiving) Jitter Deviation from Average Synchronization Audio-Video “Lip Synchronization” Delay Sensitivity Audio & Video (Online) Streams Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance D ELAY

35. 35 MeasureDescription Loss of Information Signal-to- Noise Ratio. Signal-to-Interference Ratio. BER: Bit Error Rate. Cell-Loss Rate Jamming: Loss of Communications Loss Sensitivity Data (Text) Streams. Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance L OSS OF I NFORMATION

36. 36 MeasureDescription Integrity Protection against: Destruction Modification Loss Confidentiality Unauthorized “Disclosure” of Information: “Encryption / Attack” Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance I NFORMATION S ECURITY

37. 37 Performance Demands Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance E VALUATIONS Acceptable Performance / Reasonable Cost Performance HighLow Cost Low High Evaluations at the Busy Period

38. 38 R EMARKS Saad Haj Bakry Organization Considered Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Main Points Access, Use, & Performance Demands Business Plan Network Design

39. 39 S UGGESTED W ORK Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance Main Points Access: Investigate demands for “X i ” access, considering an organization or a country (sites) Use: Estimate traffic load matrices (“X i ” between sites), considering business transactions Performance: Investigates acceptable performance measures: “X i ”

40. 40 R EFERENCES Saad Haj Bakry Network Demands: Access, Use, & Performance s AuthorTitlePublication 1 CCITT (ITU-T)General Network PlanningITU, Geneva, 1983 2 S. H. Bakry, M. K. Samarkandy and S. Al-Wakeel A methodology for the investigation of telephone demands in Saudi Arabia ITU Telecommunication Journal, Vol. 54, No. 1, January 1987, pp. 37-45 3 S. H. Bakry and I. Al-Kadi Analysis of public access provisioning requirements for information networks NETWORK MANAGEMENT-An International Journal (Wiley), Vol. 6, No. 6, Nov. - Dec. 1996, pp.327- 333 4 R. Jammal Al- Deen, S. H. Bakry, and A. Nouh Performance based evaluations of tangible benefits of information networks with applications NETWORK MANAGEMENT - An International Journal (Wiley), Vol.10, No. 2, March-April, 2000, pp. 91-101.