1. Science and Context Presentations: “Following the Water” 1. Scenarios (Maria Wright) 2. Climate (Phil Mote) 3. Hydrology (Roy Haggerty) 4. Snowpack (Anne Nolin) 5. Forests (Dave Turner) 6. Reservoir Operations and Tradeoffs (Kathleen Moore) 7. Urban Demand (Christian Langpap) 8. Population and Land Use (Bill Jaeger) 9. Agricultural Demand (Bill Jaeger) 10. Law (Adell Amos) 11. Fish (David Hulse) Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

2. About these Slides 2Willamette Water 2100 – December 4, 2015 The following slides are from three minute presentations scientists gave to introduce project results by topic area at the Willamette Water 2100 Capstone Workshop on December 4, 2015. The short presentations were followed by round table discussions that provided more detail. These slides represent work in progress and can be used in presentations with attribution, but should not be cited as final work. This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. 1039192, 1038925 and 1038899. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in these slides are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

3. 1. Scenarios Presenter: Maria Wright, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

4. Elements Climate Population & Income Forests Development Reservoir Ops Urban Water Price Agriculture Water Claims Environmental Flows WW2100 Scenarios 20 scenarios 1 Reference 19 alternative Each scenario varies one or more element Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

5. 10 of the 20 Scenarios Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

6. 2. Climate Presenter: Philip Mote, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

7. NW precipitation WY2015: -10% Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

8. David Rupp and Julie Vano Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

9. 3. Hydrology Presenter: Roy Haggerty, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

10. Willamette River at Portland. Reference case. In bottom and right figures, shading is as follows. Light blue = LowClim. Blue-green = HighClim. Brown = all modeled changes in human systems (population, land use, etc.). Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

11. Hydrologic drought days for the Willamette River at Portland. One day of hydrologic drought is a day in which the 30-day running mean discharge is below the 10th percentile of 30-day mean discharges. Shading is Light blue = LowClim. Blue-green = HighClim. Brown = all modeled changes in human systems (population, land use, etc.) except for No Reservoirs. Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

12. 4. Snowpack Presenter: Anne Nolin, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

13. Rising winter temperatures lead to an overall decline in snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Snow water equivalent declines by 63-95%. Low elevation snow is gone. There is decadal variability but a significant downward trend April 1 Snow Water Equivalent Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

15. 5. Forests Presenter: David Turner, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

16. Willamette River Basin in 2010 Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

17. Cumulative Area Burned Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

18. Upland Forest Mean Evapotranspiration Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

19. 6. Reservoir Operations and Tradeoffs Presenter: Kathleen Moore, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

20. Flood Control Benefits Estimated value for one week in January: Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

21. Storage Shortfalls Estimated recreation losses: Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

22. Marginal Value of Water for Recreation Estimated dollars per acre-foot per day: Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

23. 7. Urban Demand Presenter: Christian Langpap, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

24. DETERMINANTS OF URBAN WATER DEMAND Residential Price (-0.6) Income (0.13 flat, 0.18 IBR) Population (1.0) Density (-0.05) Non-residential Price (-0.6) Commercial Income (0.04) Industrial Income (0.11) Population (0.85) Variables and response parameters chosen based on a review of the economics literature on urban water demand. Variables that can be forecasted over the entire study period, either as exogenous drivers (income, population growth) or generated within the Envision framework (population density). Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

25. The model of urban water demand predicts total daily water use. Predicted trends vary with changes in key drivers such as population or price. Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

26. Predicted urban water use is adjusted for seasonality. Urban water use varies significantly between winter and summer, and between indoor and outdoor uses. Indoor water use goes largely to non-consumptive uses and is returned to stream flow in amounts roughly the same as the amounts diverted. Outdoor water use is largely used consumptively in backyard evapotranspiration, evaporation, or seeps into groundwater. Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

27. 8. Population & Land Use Presenter: Bill Jaeger, Oregon State University (representing Andrew Plantinga, UC-Santa Barbara, and Dan Bigelow, Oregon State University) Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

28. Population and income growth result in urban land expansion at the expense of agricultural and forest land Growth, land use & water - Andrew Plantinga & Dan Bigelow Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

29. Land values: 2010 vs 2100 2010 2100 Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

30. 9. Agriculture Presenter: Bill Jaeger, Oregon State University Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

31. Agriculture, Irrigation, Water use - William Jaeger & Alexey Kalinin Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

32. Projected development of irrigated lands 2010- 2100 Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

33. Predicted changes in summer flows in Tualatin River – due to urban expansion and irrigation contraction Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

34. per acre Extra conveyance cost for stored water irrigation Instream water rights Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

35. 10. Law Presenter: Adell Amos, University of Oregon (no slides) Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

36. 11. Fish Presenter: David Hulse, University of Oregon (representing Stan Gregory, Oregon State University) Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

37. Willamette River Fish Communities Stan Gregory Oregon State University Willamette River Fish Database (http://gis.nacse.org/wrfish/)http://gis.nacse.org/wrfish/ Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

38. Major Take Home Messages – Fish Project Native fish make up the vast majority of fish captured in the Willamette River (97% native species). This is an ecological foundation for both conservation and restoration actions in the Willamette River basin. Fish species richness and abundance were greater in the upper river, which was more geomorphically diverse and cooler. The upper Willamette River is another ecological foundation for linking the river network and the different portions of the basin. Salmonids were mostly collected in the upper river, particularly cutthroat trout and rainbow trout. Future changes in river temperatures and habitat complexity are major challenges for aquatic ecosystems. The occurrence of cold-water species is likely to decrease as river temperatures warm in the future. The river is changing because of human caused changes in hydrology and sediment supply. A new river is forming. We need to develop a more rigorous and widely shared vision of the new Willamette River. Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015

39. HarrisburgSalemI-5 Br in Portland Willamette Water 2100 - December 4, 2015