1. Day 3: Observational Studies, Experiments and Sampling Unit 1: Statistics

2. Warm Up Day 3 Write today’s date Read the following question. Explain (in detail) the method you would use to find the answer. – Battery lifetime is normally distributed for large samples. The mean lifetime is 500 days and the standard deviation is 61 days. To the nearest percent, what percent of batteries have lifetimes longer than 561 days? – Is there another way to do this problem? (yes…)

3. Questions about normal distribution?

4. Sampling and Study Design

5. Main Questions What is bias and how does it affect the data you collect? What are the different ways that a sample can be collected? What’s the difference between an experiment and an observational study? When is a sample considered random?

6. There are three ways to collect data: 1. Surveys 2. Observational Studies 3. Experiments

7. Surveys most often involve the use of a questionnaire to measure the characteristics and/or attitudes of people. ex. asking students their opinion about extending the school day Surveys

8. Individuals are observed and certain outcomes are measured, but no attempt is made to affect the outcome. Observational Studies

9. Treatments are imposed prior to observation. Experiments are the only way to show a cause-and-effect relationship. Remember: Correlation is not causation! Experiments

10. Observational Study or Experiment? Fifty people with clinical depression were divided into two groups. Over a 6 month period, one group was given a traditional treatment for depression while the other group was given a new drug. The people were evaluated at the end of the period to determine whether their depression had improved. Experiment

11. To determine whether or not apples really do keep the doctor away, forty patients at a doctor’s office were asked to report how often they came to the doctor and the number of apples they had eaten recently. Observational Study Observational Study or Experiment?

12. To determine whether music really helped students’ scores on a test, a teacher who taught two U. S. History classes played classical music during testing for one class and played no music during testing for the other class. Experiment Observational Study or Experiment?

13. Group Work: Observational Study or Experiment Each group will be assigned one scenario. As a group, determine whether the research conducted is an observational study (O) or an experiment (E). Be prepared to share your answer and explain your reasoning with the class. Resource Manager: Obtain your scenario from Mrs. Mullen Reader: Read your scenario out loud Speaker: Shares group answer with the class Task & Time Keeper: 7 minutes – keep everyone working!

14. Types of Sampling In order to collect data, we must choose a sample, or a group that represents the population. The goal of a study will determine the type of sampling that will take place.

15. All individuals in the population have the same probability of being selected, and all groups in the sample size have the same probability of being selected. 1. Simple Random Sample (SRS)

16. 100 names are put in a hat and 10 are picked. Put 50 boys’ names in one hat and 50 girls’ names in another hat and pick 5 from each hat. SRS Not SRS Simple Random Sample ?

17. If a researcher wants to highlight specific subgroups within the population, they divide the entire population into different subgroups, or strata, and then randomly selects the final subjects proportionally from the different strata. 2. Stratified Random Sample

18. Example of Stratified Random Sample Divide high school population into grade level and select from proportional amount from each class. Probably more freshman so you’d chose more of them.

19. The researcher selects a number at random, n, and then selects every nth individual for the study. 3. Systematic Random Sample

20. Example of Systematic Random Sample Have all student line up and then randomly pick a number, n. every nth person gets an eraser

21. Subjects are taken from a group that is conveniently accessible to a researcher. Example of Convenience Sample: picking the first 100 people to enter the movies on Friday night. 4. Convenience Sample

22. The entire population is divided into groups, or clusters, and a random sample of these clusters are selected. All individuals in the selected clusters are included in the sample. 5. Cluster Sample

23. Example of Cluster Sample Dividing into classes and then randomly choosing one class

24. A voluntary response sample is made up of people who self-select into the survey. Often, these folks have a strong interest in the main topic of the survey. 6. Voluntary Response You have to add this one to your notes! Example of Voluntary Response Suppose, for example, that a news show asks viewers to participate in an online poll. This would be a voluntary sample. The sample is chosen by the viewers, not by the survey administrator.

25. The names of 70 contestants are written on 70 cards, the cards are placed in a bag, the bag is shaken, and three names are picked from the bag. Name that sample! Simple random sampleStratified sample Convenience sample Cluster sample Systematic sample

26. To avoid working late, the quality control manager inspects the last 10 items produced that day. Simple random sampleStratified sample Convenience sample Cluster sample Systematic sample Name that sample!

27. A researcher for an airline interviews all of the passengers on five randomly selected flights. Simple random sampleStratified sample Convenience sample Cluster sample Systematic sample Name that sample!

28. A researcher randomly selects and interviews fifty male and fifty female teachers. Simple random sampleStratified sample Convenience sample Cluster sample Systematic sample Name that sample!

29. Every fifth person boarding a plane is searched thoroughly. Simple random sampleStratified sample Convenience sample Cluster sample Systematic sample Name that sample!

30. Homework A Sample of Sampling Methods - For each situation, identify the sampling technique used (simple random, cluster, stratified, convenience, voluntary response, or systematic):