1. PRESS BRIEFING WATER AND POWER DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY December 16, 2005 MEGA DAM PROJECTS

2. 2 SEQUENCE OF PRESENTATION A. A.PAKISTAN’S NEED FOR LARGE DAMS B. B.WATER AVAILABILITY VS POPULATION GROWTH C. C.NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN WORLD D. D.PROJECT LAYOUT E. E.DESIGN EARTHQUAKE F. F.COST ESTIMATES G. G.APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP & SINDH H. H.IMPLEMENTATIONS SCHEDULE J. J.FUNDING REQUIREMENTS

3. 3 PAKISTAN’S NEED FOR LARGE DAMS WATER SCARCE COUNTRY AS PER GLOBAL CRITERIA RAPIDLY INCREASING POPULATION DEPLETING ON-LINE STORAGES LARGE ESCAPAGES OF UNCONTROLLED FLOOD IN SEA EFFECTIVE RIVER REGULATION AND INTEGRATION OF EXISTING IRRIGATION SYSTEM

4. 4 WATER APPORTIONMENT ACCORD 1991 PARA-6 THE NEED FOR STORAGES, WHEREEVER FEASIBLE ON THE INDUS AND OTHER RIVERS WAS ADMITTED AND RECOGNIZED BY THE PARTICIPANTS FOR PLANNED FUTURE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

5. 5 WATER AVAILABILITY (MAF) POPULATION (Million) 1126 m3 2005 155.27 Million (2005)

6. 6 Sr. #River Basin Average Annual flow (MAF) No. of Dams Storage Capacity (MAF) % age Storage 1Colorado12359.62497 2Nile381132475 3 Sutlej Bias India (Total) 32 750 5 4,636 11.32 245 35 33 4Yellow River345768.9520 5Columbia17933419 6 Indus & others Rivers 145318.3713 7Yangtze8701324 8World20,000-8,00040 AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS

7. 7 ESCAPAGE BELOW KOTRI HYDROLOGICAL YEAR FROM APRIL TO MARCH Source: WRMP WAPDA based on data supplied by Govt. of Sindh Upto 03.10.05

8. 8 1. From Western Rivers u/s RIM Stations146 MAF 2. Uses above RIM Stations (NWFP) 5 MAF 3. Net available at Rim Stations141 MAF 4. Distribution by IRSA (1991-WAA)117.35 MAF 5. Canal Diversion106 MAF 6. Not available for distribution (as per Accord) (4-5)11.35 MAF 7. Water flowing downstream Kotri (3-5) 35 MAF WATER AVAILABILITY IN PAKISTAN

9. 9 RESERVOIR GROSS STORAGE CAPACITY GROSS STORAGE LOSS ORIGINALYEAR 2004 YEAR 2012YEAR 2025 TARBELA 11.62 (1974) 8.36 (72%) 3.26 (28%) 4.17 (36%) 5.51 (47%) MANGLA 5.88 (1967) 4.64 (78%) 1.24 (22%) 1.72 (29%) 1.97 (34%) CHASHMA 0.87 (1971) 0.48 (55%) 0.39 (45%) 0.48 (55%) 0.50 (57%) TOTAL18.37 13.48 (73%) 4.89 (27%) 6.37 (35%) 7.98 (43%) RESERVOIR SEDIMENTATION (MAF)

10. 10 NUMBER OF DAMS UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN SOME COUNTRIES Country Total No. of Dams Above 50 Ft.Above 200 Ft. CHINA25359 TURKEY11322 INDIA286 IRAN5228 JAPAN9735 PAKISTAN31 (Gomal Dam) Source: ICOLD register of Dams

11. 11 PROPOSED DAMS ON INDUS AKHORI DAM SKARDU DAM

12. 12 Barotha Power House AKHORA KHATTAK

13. 13 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT LAYOUT

14. 14 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURES RESERVOIR GROSS STORAGE7.9 MAF LIVE STORAGE6.1 MAF RETENTION LEVEL915 FT MAIN DAM CREST ELEVATION940 FT. MAXIMUM HEIGHT260 FT. LENGTH11,000 FT. SPILLWAYS OVERFLOW SPILLWAY1,070,000 Cusecs ORIFICE 980,000 Cusecs POWERSTATION NUMBER OF UNITS8/12 Nos. Initial/Ultimate INSTALLED CAPACITY2,400/3,600 MW (12,400 GWh per year) ESTIMATED COST (SEPTEMBER 2005)US $ 6.1 Billion NO LOW LEVEL OUTLETS INCLUDED IN PRESENT DESIGN

15. 15 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEISMIC DESIGN THE EVALUATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD AND DETERMINATION OF MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) AND OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE) WAS MADE WITH THE ADVICE OF PROF. ALLEN, PROF. AMBRESSEYS AND MR. ABUL FARAH. THE PARAMETER OF MCE M = 7 AND a = 0.4g ARE BASED ON THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM EARTHQUAKE OCCURRING ON KALABAGH FAULT WHICH IS 12 KM FROM THE DAM SITE AT ITS NEAREST POINT. OTHER MAPPED FAULTS ARE SUFFICIENTLY FAR AWAY.

16. 16 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT PROVINCE POPULATION * TO BE RESETTLED LAND AFFECTED (ACRES) BARANIIRRIGATEDTOTAL PUNJAB78,00021,6002,90024,500 N.W.F.P42,0002,9001003,000 TOTAL120,00024,5003,00027,500 * December 2004

17. 17 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT Cost Estimates (US$ Million) Sr. No. DescriptionSeptember 2005 1.Resettlement & Relocation675 2.Preparatory Work, Colonies, Contractor Camp400 3.Diversion Works, Dam Embankment and Earthwork 630 4.Power Intakes, Conduits & Power Station920 5.Spillway450 6.Transmission Lines and E&M Works550 7.Physical Contingencies415 Sub Total4040 8.Price Escalation793 9.IDC1146 10.Taxes & Duties121 Total Investment Cost6100

18. 18 APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP

19. 19 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF NWFP APPREHENSIONSFACTUAL POSITION  POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING OF NOWSHERA TOWN AND PESHAWAR VALLEY IN CASE OF UNPRECEDENTED FLOOD  MODERN FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM WOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE WARNING AGAINST FLOODS  TARBELA IS ALSO ON LINE NOW  DRAINAGE OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED  CONSERVATION LEVEL OF KALABAGH DAM IS 915 FT WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE LOWEST GROUND LEVEL OF MARDAN, PABBI AND SWABI SCARP AREAS  FERTILE CULTIVATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED  2,900 ACRES OF BARANI LAND AND ONLY 100 ACRES OF IRRIGATED LAND WOULD BE SUBMERGED IN THE RESERVOIR  LARGE POPULATION WOULD BE DISPLACED  RESETTLEMENT PLAN WOULD ENSURE PROPER COMPENSATION TO THE AFFECTEES PUNJABNWFPTOTAL NO. OF AFFECTEES78,00042,000120,000 LAND AFFECTED (Acres) 24,500 3,000 27,500

20. 20 KALABAGH RESERVOIR AREA WITH PROPOSED MODEL VILLAGES

21. 21 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT 3 – D VIEW OF NOWSHERA VALLEY

22. 22 PIR SABAK

23. 23 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT L-SECTION OF KABUL RIVER

24. 24 DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH SWABI CHARSADDA PABBINOWSHERA MARDAN RESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915 DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES LEVEL IN FEET 955 960 940 970 1000

25. 25 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT KABUL RIVER SECTION KM-5 (9270 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PIR SABAK)

26. 26 APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH

27. 27 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONSFACTUAL POSITION  NO WATER IS AVAILABLE FOR FILLING KALABAGH RESERVOIR  AVERAGE ANNUAL OUTFLOW BELOW KOTRI IS 35.2 MAF  MOST CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE SHOWS 16 MAF FOR STORAGE / DEVELOPMENT  ABOUT 6 MAF IS JUST REPLACEMENT FOR TARBELA, MANGLA AND CHASHMA DUE TO SEDIMENTATION  SINDH WOULD BE CONVERTED INTO A DESERT  AFTER MANGLA & TARBELA DAMS, SINDH CANAL WITHDRAWALS INCREASED FROM 37.20 MAF TO 44.47 MAF  CANAL WITHDRAWALS FOR SINDH WOULD FURTHER INCREASE BY 2 MAF AFTER KALABAGH

28. 28 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONSFACTUAL POSITION  RIVERINE AREA WOULD GO OUT OF PRODUCTION DUE TO CONTROL OVER RIVER  FLOOD PEAKS IN EXCESS OF 300,000 CUSECS WOULD STILL BE COMING  ASSURED WATER SUPPLY THROUGH PROPOSED TUBEWELLS WILL BE MADE ROUND THE YEAR  INDUS DELTA MANGROVE FOREST WOULD VANISH  ONLY 7,000 ACRES OUT OF 294,000 ACRES MANGROVE FOREST ARE IN INDUS ACTIVE DELTA ESTABLISHED THROUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY  NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AS REQUIRED MINIMUM WATER (AS PER LATEST STUDIES) WILL STILL BE FLOWING BELOW KOTRI

29. 29 RIVERAIN AREA DEVELOPMENT (SINDH) THROUGH TUBEWELLS

30. 30 THE INDUS DELTA MANGROVES AND LANDFORMS

31. 31 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT APPREHENSIONS OF SINDH APPREHENSIONSFACTUAL POSITION  FISH PRODUCTION BELOW KOTRI WOULD BE AFFECTED  NO EVIDENCE ESTABLISHES THIS APPREHENSION AS FISH PRODUCTION INCREASED  MARINE FISH (THOUSAND TONS) - 1995283- 2000308 -1996270-2001315 -1997292-2002318 -1998303-2003274 -1999351-2004275  STUDY REQUIRED TO DETERMINE ESCAPAGE DOWNSTREAM KOTRI  ROYALTY FROM KALABAGH WOULD GO TO PUNJAB ALTHOUGH THE PROJECT WOULD BE FEDERALLY FUNDED  IT IS TO BE DEALT WITH CONSTITUTIONALLY

32. 32 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT SEASON-WISE AND ANNUAL CANAL HEAD WITHDRAWALS OF SINDH (1962-63 TO 1999-2000) SEASON PRE- MANGLA (1962-67) AVERAGE PRE- TARBELA (1967-76) AVERAGE POST- TARBELA (1976-2000) AVERAGE ADDITIONAL WATER FOR SINDH AFTER MANGLA AND TARBELA KHARIF26.1628.6629.453.2912.6% RABI11.0412.1915.023.9836.1% TOTAL37.2040.8544.477.2719.5%

33. 33 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT HOW SOON CONSTRUCTION CAN START ? All designs & Tender Documents ready Revised Environmental/Resettlement Studies Underway. Preliminary Works i.e. Access Roads, Colonies etc. can also start. Construction can start in 2006.

34. 34 KALABAGH DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

35. 35 SHARING OF FUTURE STORAGE PROJECTS (Water Apportionment Accord 1991) PUNJAB 37% SIND37% NWFP14% BALUCHISTAN12%

36. 36 BHASHA DAM PROJECT

37. 37 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT SATTELITE IMAGERY OF RESERVOIR BASHA DIAMER DAM

38. 38 Drilling in River and Overland on Selected Axis.Drilling in River and Overland on Selected Axis. Finalization & Improvement on Basic Studies:Finalization & Improvement on Basic Studies:  Hydrological  Structural  Hydraulics  Construction Material  Geotechnical/Seismological  Electrical & Mechanical Preparation of Feasibility Level Designs.Preparation of Feasibility Level Designs. Environmental Impact Assessment.Environmental Impact Assessment. Resettlement Issues.Resettlement Issues. Preparation of Cost Estimate.Preparation of Cost Estimate. Economic & Financial Evaluation.Economic & Financial Evaluation. Finalization of Feasibility Report (August 2004).Finalization of Feasibility Report (August 2004). BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT STUDIES CARRIED OUT

39. 39 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT APPROVAL BY PANNEL OF EXPERTS WAPDA Appointed an international Panel of Experts (2004). WAPDA Appointed an international Panel of Experts (2004). POE made in depth review of the Work Done by the Consultants and made detailed site visit. POE made in depth review of the Work Done by the Consultants and made detailed site visit. POE Endorsed the Feasibility. POE Endorsed the Feasibility.

40. 40 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT LAYOUT PLAN/CONFIGURATION

41. 41 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT SALIENT FEATURES Sr. No. DESCRIPTION CONCRETE GRAVITY DAM AT AXIS-D ROLLER COMPACTED CONCRETE CONSTRUCTION 1. DIVERSION TUNNELS 5 No. WITH TOTAL LENGTH OF 7.5 Km 2. COFFER DAMS 55 m HIGH UPSTREAM & 25 m HIGH DOWNSTREAM 3. MAIN DAM 281 m HIGH, 990 m LONG 12 m, WIDE CREST 4. RESERVOIR GROSS CAPACITY LIVE CAPACITY FULL RESERVOIR LEVEL 9.04 MAF (11.15 BCM) 7.30 MAF (9.05 BCM) El. 1170 m 5. MAIN SPILLWAY TYPE DESIGN DISCHARGE GATE CONTROLLED OGEE CREST 23,700 Cumecs (837,000 Cusecs) 6. OUTLETS 8 CONDUITS FOR IRRIGATION AND 4 FOR SLUICING 7. POWERHOUSES LOCATION & TYPE NO. OF UNITS TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY TWO UNDERGROUND, ONE ON EACH BANK 12 UNITS, EACH OF 375 MW (6 ON EACH POWERHOUSE) 4500 MW (16,770 GWh) 8. ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT APPROX. POPULATION AFFECTED SUBMERGENCE OF KKH 23,700 (2,850 HOUSEHOLDS) 110 Km

42. 42 BASHA DIAMER DAM SEISMIC HAZARD STUDIES SEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS MAXIMUM DESIGN EARTHQUAKE (MDE) TAKEN EQUAL TO THE MAXIMUM CREDIBLE EARTHQUAKE (MCE) 0.40 g OPERATING BASIS EARTHQUAKE (OBE) 0.21 g

43. 43 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT POWER TRANSMISSION FAR AWAY FROM LOAD CENTER. FAR AWAY FROM LOAD CENTER. FIRST 325 KM THROUGH RUGGED MOUNTAINS. FIRST 325 KM THROUGH RUGGED MOUNTAINS. MORE COSTLIER AND DIFFICULT TO CONSTRUCT. MORE COSTLIER AND DIFFICULT TO CONSTRUCT. TOTAL COST U.S. $ 986 MILLION WHICH IS ABOUT 15 % OF TOTAL FINANCIAL COST. TOTAL COST U.S. $ 986 MILLION WHICH IS ABOUT 15 % OF TOTAL FINANCIAL COST.

44. 44 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT ALTERNATE TRANSMISSION ROUTES ON TOPO MAP

45. 45 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT ENVIRONMENT AND RESETTLEMENT POPULATION AFFECTED POPULATION AFFECTED24,350 NO. OF VILLAGES & HOUSEHOLDS NO. OF VILLAGES & HOUSEHOLDS 32 & 2,833 AGRIC. LAND WHICH WILL SUBMERGE AGRIC. LAND WHICH WILL SUBMERGE 1,600 Acres ECONOMIC TREES ECONOMIC TREES52,000 AREA UNDER RESERVOIR(El.1175 m) AREA UNDER RESERVOIR(El.1175 m) 32,000 Acres LENGTH OF KKH WHICH WILL SUBMERGE LENGTH OF KKH WHICH WILL SUBMERGE LAND REQUIRED FOR RESETTLEMENT LAND REQUIRED FOR RESETTLEMENT 110 Km 5,500 Acres LAND IDENTIFIED FOR RESETTLEMENT LAND IDENTIFIED FOR RESETTLEMENT 11,250 Acres PROPOSED NEW SETTLEMENTS PROPOSED NEW SETTLEMENTS9 INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE Roads, Water Supply, Schools, Health Centers etc. APPROXIMATE COST APPROXIMATE COST US$ 200 Million

46. 46 BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT RELOCATION/REHEBLITATION OF KKH Hasanabdal Length of Section 40 km 281 km 94 km BASHA DIAMER DAM

47. 47 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT UPGRADATION AND RELOCATIONOF KKH Upgradation Reach (Havelian to Dam Site) Upgradation Reach (Havelian to Dam Site) Length = 323 Km Cost=9.2 Billion Rupees Relocation Reach (Sazin to Raikot Bridge) Relocation Reach (Sazin to Raikot Bridge) Length≈ 140 Km Cost14.30 Billion Rupees

48. 48 BASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT CURRENT STATUS Consultancy for Detailed Design & Preparation of11.07.2005 Tender Documents Awarded Consultancy for Detailed Design & Preparation of11.07.2005 Tender Documents Awarded Consultants Mobilized 05.09.2005 Consultants Mobilized 05.09.2005 Completion Period 30 months Completion Period 30 months Date of Completion04-03-2008 Date of Completion04-03-2008

49. 49 Sr.No. CALENDER YEAR (JAN-DEC) 2002 20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 1 Feasibility Study Stage-I (Completed) 2 Preparation of Tender Documents and Detail Engineering 3 Additional Investigation Studies and Model Testing 4 Pre-construction Activities Land Acquisition, Up-gradation of KKH 5 Tendering Process Up to Award 6 Mobilization of Contractor 7 Construction Activities 8 Rehabilitation/ Resettlement including Relocation of KKH BHASHA DIAMER DAM PROJECT OVERALL IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

50. 50 SKARDU / KATZARAH DAM PROJECT

51. 51 SKARDU DAM Skardu Shigar Airport SKARDU DAM SITE SKARDU/KATZARAH DAM PROJECT

52. 52 CROSS SECTION THROUGH AIRPORT

53. 53 STATUS & TECHNICAL ISSUES OF FUTURE DAMS KALABAGHBHASHAAKHORI SKARDU/ KATZARAH WATER AVAIL (MAF)90501427 LIVE STORAGE (MAF)6.107.346.00UNDER STUDY POWER POTENTIAL (MW)36004500600UNDER STUDY LOGISTIC PROBLEMSLEASTMORELESSMAXIMUM POWER DISPERSAL NEAREST TO LOAD CENTRE VERY DIFFICULT NEAREST TO LOAD CENTRE MOST DIFFICULT HEIGHT OF DAM (FT.)260908418860 STATUSF D T F AUG 04 D MAR 08 F DEC 05PF START OF CONSTRUCTION 200620092015(UNCERTAIN) SEISMICITYLESSMORELESSMORE Environment – Persons Displaced 120,00024,00049,300160,000 – Roads Affected MINOR KKH – Submerge 110 Km Upgrade 320 Km 97 KM 40 Km submerge upgrade 680 Km – Land Submergence (Acres) 110,2003200059,20090,000 Cost ($ Billion)6.16.55? PF Pre FeasibilityF FeasibilityD Design T Tender Documents