1. Public Opinion and Political Socialization Chapter 11

2. Public Opinion and Political Socialization Lecture Outline Public opinion polling became front page news in November 2000. –TV and web-based news organizations called the state of FL for Al Gore early in the evening based on exit polls. –Shortly thereafter they had to retract that call and FL remained hotly contested for weeks. –Recounts, lawsuits, and weeks of distress followed before the Supreme Court stopped all further vote counting essentially granting the election to George W. Bush.

3. Public Opinion and Political Socialization Polls flew, the predictors and pundits argued back and forth. The loser in all of this may have been political polling and the tradition of calling elections based on projections instead of actual votes. We learned that elections were not high tech in many places and that there were lots of mistakes, spoiled ballots, and problems in American elections. We also learned that there are bad polls out there. –How do you tell a bad poll from a good one?

4. What is Public Opinion? Public opinion is “what the people think about an issue or set of issues at any given point in time.” –Opinions are normally measured by opinion polls.

5. What is Public Opinion? Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues. Look at the definitions closely. Do you see any problems?

6. What is Public Opinion? Problems: –1. The phrase “at any given point in time” implies that opinions change over time. –2. We are assuming that people know what they think and that polls measure those thoughts. Is that a fair assumption?

7. What is Public Opinion? Problems: –3. Sampling can also be problematic. How can a subset of the population represent the views of everyone? –4. Polls are used to “estimate” public opinion.

8. What is Public Opinion? What follows……. –Will address these problems –Will look at the nature of public opinion and polling –Will look at the uses of polls and whether those uses are in the public good or whether polls are a serious problem for democracy.

9. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion Early Election Forecasting and Polling Matures As early as 1824, newspapers tried to predict election results using polls. 1883, the Boston Globe used exit polls to try to predict winners.

10. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion 1916, the Literary Digest mailed survey postcards to potential voters in an attempt to predict the outcome. –Straw polls that are now seen as highly problematic. –Used in the prediction of 1936 victory of Alf Landon who ultimately lost in a landslide to FDR.

11. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion What Went Wrong? Straw polls simply ask as many people as possible a given set of questions. –They do not choose a sample in a random and scientific manner so that the sample will represent the population.

12. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion What Went Wrong? (cont.) Literary Digest made several errors: –1. They sampled middle class people and those with Republican sympathies. –2. They mailed their questionnaires in early Sept and opinion changed before the Nov elections. –3. They committed the sin of self-selection. Only highly motivated people returned the survey, so the survey oversampled better educated, politically interested, and wealthier people--again, more Republicans. George Gallup, however, successfully predicted the 1936 election. His company continues today.

13. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion The American Voter, Public Opinion, and Political Socialization The American Voter was published in 1960 and continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior.

14. Early Efforts to Influence & Measure Public Opinion The American Voter, Public Opinion, and Political Socialization (cont.) –This book studied the ‘52 & ‘56 elections and discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation. These studies led to the National Elections Study (NES) that still drives the research of political scientists interested in voting behavior.

15. Political Socialization & Other Factors That Influence Opinion Formation Political attitudes are grounded in values. –We learn these values by a process known as political socialization.

16. Political Socialization & Other Factors That Influence Opinion Formation Many factors influence opinion formation. The most important are: –Family- Mass Media –School & Peers- Impact of Events –Social Groups- Religion –Race- Gender –Region- Political Ideology

17. How We Form Political Opinions 1. Personal Benefits –Americans are more “me-oriented” than ever before. So, they tend to choose policies that will benefit them. e.g., the elderly and Social Security.

18. How We Form Political Opinions 1. Personal Benefits (cont.) –When policies don’t affect us personally, we often have trouble forming an opinion. Foreign policy.

19. How We Form Political Opinions 2. Political Knowledge –Americans are highly literate & over 82% graduate from high school. –We also have access to a wide range of higher education.

20. How We Form Political Opinions 2. Political Knowledge (cont.) –However, we don’t know much about politics. Americans generally don’t know: –the Speaker of the House? –the Chief Justice of the S.C.? –their congressional Representative? It’s okay, you’re in the majority if you don’t know!! –Americans are also geographically illiterate. Most Americans can’t find the Persian Gulf or Vietnam on a map. –However, most of us have political opinions guided by issues, events, people, ideology, or something else.

21. How We Form Political Opinions 3. Cues from Leaders –Low levels of knowledge make public opinion highly changeable. Rapid opinion shifts are common when the public doesn’t have much information on an issue or if the information is bad. Political leaders and the media can have a large effect on public opinion since we don’t know much and don’t seem to care much either.

22. How We Measure Public Opinion Public officials learn about public opinion in many ways: –Through election results, phone calls, faxes and emails. –Through letters to the editor in newspapers and magazines. –And through public opinion polls or surveys.

23. How We Measure Public Opinion In order for a poll to be reliable, it must have several characteristics. –Question Wording –Sampling –Contacting respondents –Error rate

24. How We Measure Public Opinion 1. Question Wording –You need to know how questions are phrased. –Bad questions lead to bad results. Ex., “If the government takes our guns that we use to protect our families away from us, only criminals will have guns and we will all be in danger. Are you in favor of placing your family in greater danger? Yes/No”

25. How We Measure Public Opinion 2. Sampling –In order for a poll to be reliable, the sample must be taken accurately. The best method is a scientific random sample. –Each person in the population has the same statistical chance of being selected.

26. How We Measure Public Opinion 2. Sampling (cont.) –There are a number of sampling techniques. Poor techniques that should be avoided: –Nonstratified sampling. –Straw polls. –Most nonprobability sampling methods.

27. How We Measure Public Opinion 2. Sampling (cont.) –More reliable methods: Quota sampling, e.g., respondents should reflect the makeup of a city, state, etc... Stratified sampling.

28. How We Measure Public Opinion 3. Contacting respondents –Method of contact is important. Random phone calling is valid in the US because 95% have phones. Personal contact is okay, but results can be prejudiced by the presence of the interviewer.

29. How We Measure Public Opinion Reliability Rule of Thumb: –Never trust a poll that doesn’t tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted.

30. How We Measure Public Opinion Reputable and reliable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents and the error rate (+ or - x%), so that you can determine for yourself whether to believe the results. –Any poll that tells you to call 555-9712 for yes and 555-9713 for no is unscientific and unreliable. –Same is true for internet polls that say you should register your opinion now. Not random samples.

31. How We Measure Public Opinion Types of Polls 1. Tracking Polls –Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. Small samples conducted every 24 hours. Reliability problems but may be a decent measure of trends.

32. How We Measure Public Opinion Types of Polls 2. Push Polls –Lead the subject to a specified conclusion or may try to push the subject away from candidates by linking them to negative events or traits in the question.

33. How We Measure Public Opinion Types of Polls (cont.) 3. Exit Polls –Conducted at polling places on election day.

34. How We Measure Public Opinion Types of Polls (cont.) 4. Deliberative Polls –Large scientific samples of people selected for initial polling then intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issues, and then repolling. –Attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider issues first.

35. How We Measure Public Opinion Shortcomings of Polling 1. Sampling Error –The margin of error should be quite small if the sample is carefully selected. All polls contain some error. 3 - 5% is considered a reasonably small rate of error. 3% error rate means the poll is 97% accurate.

36. How We Measure Public Opinion Shortcomings of Polling 1. Sampling Error (cont.) –Very important if a race is close: –Al Gore 48% –George Bush 52% Margin of Error: 5% –Do the numbers tell us anything?

37. How We Measure Public Opinion Shortcomings of Polling (cont.) 2. Limited Respondent Options –Have you ever taken a survey (or a test) and said I don’t like any of the answers? If the options are not broad enough, you get bad results. 3. Lack of Information –If surveys ask questions about things the respondents don’t understand or don’t know about, the answers will often be invalid. Filter questions used, such as “have you thought about...?”

38. How We Measure Public Opinion Shortcomings of Polling (cont.) 4. Intensity –Polls don’t measure intensity well. You learn a respondent’s position on an issue but not how strong that opinion might be. 5. Elitism –Deliberative polls have been accused of elite bias.

39. How Polling & Public Opinion Affect Politicians, Politics, and Policy The most important questions are: So what? Do polls affect the political process? If so, how and to what effect? Are they benign ways of measuring the attitudes of a democratic citizenry or are they malignant attempts to control and manipulate the people?

40. How Polling & Public Opinion Affect Politicians, Politics, and Policy Politicians and others (the media) spend millions on polls. –How are they used? –What is their effect? –How good and accurate are most polls? –Do politicians know much about polling? Do they attempt to make sure their polls are accurate, reliable, and scientific?

41. How Polling & Public Opinion Affect Politicians, Politics, and Policy Polls can also change opinions. –Is all the polling really measuring public opinion or forming it? Is the answer a problem? –Public opinion fluctuates--sometimes wildly. Should politicians follow public opinion? Lead it? Ignore it? Guide it?