1. March 5, 2015 University of Salerno Vincenzo Passannante 1 CORSO DI DOTTORATO IN INGEGNERIA ED ECONOMIA DELL’INNOVAZIONE XIII CICLO 1 Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy Theoretical problems in Cause – Specific Mortality forecasting and diagnosis rates. Solutions and actuarial applications.

2. Agenda Motivation Modelling of cause-specific mortality Mitigating the discontinuities About the dependence Critical Illness Cover New proposal for Insured Loan Case study Conclusions

3. Motivation New horizons for Insured Loan CUSTOMIZING INSURANCE AND FINANCIAL PRODUCTS INCREASING AVAILABILITY OF SPECIFIC DATA LONGEVITY RISK

4. The IDEA is to insert other type of insurance coverage in the financial management Cause – specific death Critical Illness

5. Modelling of cause-specific mortality Structural Breaks and Dependence Forecasting the future trend of cause –specific mortality Mitigate the discontinuity points Consider the dependence

6. The problem of prediction for causes of death Central death rate for Circulatory System (age 60-64, female) year International Classification of Diseases (ICD), dependence Discontinuities in the time series Dependences among the cause – specific deaths/diseases Important implications on several Insured Loan Proposed Better estimates and predictions of cause-specific mortality New tools for Insurance Company year

7. Mitigating the discontinuties The Model of Haberman et al. (2014) Average age-specific mortality Deviation in mortality Mortality index at year t Adjustment for coding changes Constraints: Assumption: where:

8. About the dependence Vector Error Correction Model  Selection the lag order of VAR(p) Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC), Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQ), Schwarz Criterion (SC), Final Prediction Error (FPE).  Unit root test With some tests (KPSS, ADF, PP) it is possible to see if the characteristic polynomial has unit root. KPSS tests the null hypothesis that the variable is trend stationary, while ADF and PP test the null hypothesis of a unit root (the null hypothesis of non- stationary).

9. Vector Error Correction Model  Fitting a VAR(p) or VECM If all the variables are stationary (I(O), integrated of zero order) the fitting with a VAR is appropriate. However, the Johansen’s procedure should be applied if some of the variables are I(1) in order to find the number of cointegrating relations. With the trace test and the maximum eigenvalue test we can see the number of cointegrating relations. If there isn’t cointegration between the variables it is possible to use a VAR (p-1) on the first difference.

10. VAR and VECM for Kt Consider VAR(p) with: for The condition for the Var(p) model to be stationary is:

11. VAR and VECM for Kt Unit root tests All causes of death have unit roots NOT STATIONARY ALL VARIABLES ARE I(1)

12. Cointegration If all the variables aren’t stationary and integrated of the same order, we can find an equilibrium between them in the long – run represented by this equation:

13. Cointegration If this relation is stationary (it means that they have the same trend in the long – run), the variables are cointegrated. If the process is stationary ALL CAUSES OF DEATH ARE COINTEGRATED

14. How many cointegrating relation are there?  Consider a process with three variables integrated of order 1, and suppose that it is cointegrated with the cointegrated vector,,such that  It is shown, with the Granger representation theorem, that if the series are cointegrated, exists a representation ECM.

15. How many cointegrating relations?

16. In matrix form: Matrix LoadingCoint. Matrix Representation of the VAR(2) in the form vector error correction model (multivariate version of the Dickey – Fuller test)

17. How many cointegrating relations? We can determinate the number of cointegrating relations in the series Yt by the rank of the matrix. In particular: if the is a VAR(p-1) stationary; if the has not unit roots, it is a VAR(p) stationary; if has r cointegrating relations and k-r common trend.

18. Critical Illness Cover Stand Alone and Accelerated Benefit Stand Alone Cover A benefit is paid if the assured suffers for one the following contractual critical conditions ( for example Heart Attack, Stroke, Cancer, Respiratory System). Accelerated benefit Stand Alone + accelerated benefit if the assured dies. A benefit is paid if the assured suffers a particular diseases and an accelerated benefit in case of death.

19. Insured Loan SIL: Standard Insured Loan Supposing the borrower/insured’s debt is one monetary unit where

20. The benefit payable if the insured dies The constant actuarial premium the insured pays if alive in which

21. New proposals for Insured Loan SpeIL: Death Specific Insured Loan The basic equation is: - The idea is to design a product in which the loan is saved in case of the borrower’s death for a specific cause.

22. SCILsa: Standard Critical Illness Loan (Stand Alone) - In this case the loan is saved if the insured suffers specified critical diseases.

23. SCILa: Standard Critical Illness Loan (Accelerated) - in which is the probability of the two compatible events, specifically to die for any cause of death and/or to suffer a specified illness.

24. Case study Application to the U.K. case Population data U.K. Population (diff. cohort) Ages: 25-29,30-34,…,84-89 Period: 1950-2001 CMI: disease rates WHO: death-cause m.r. Loan Characteristics Duration: 10/20 years Interest rate = 7%, Issue Time = 2014, C = 200000 euro HMD: aggregated m.r. Insurance Cover Characteristics SIL, SpeIL, SCILsa, SCILa Technical actuarial valuation rate = 2% Age at entry = 40/60

25. 1) Mitigating the discontinuities in the mortality time series with an extension of the Lee – Carter Model. 2) Capturing the possible dependences among the cause – specific deaths. 3) Forecasting them trough the ARIMA models, the VECM (only if there are several stationary cointegrating relations between them) and the Vector Autoregressive Model (if their representation has not unit roots). 4) Use the better prevision in order to calculate the future trend of mortality rates. 5) Finally, the pricing our proposed contracts.

26. Parameters estimation Figure 1: Model parameters (Circulatory System, UK Male population)

27. Adjusted Kt Figure 2: Adjusted mortality index (Circulatory System, UK Male population)

28. SELECT LAG ORDER AIC(n)HQ(n)SC(n)FPE(n) 1111 AIC(n)HQ(n)SC(n)FPE(n) 2111 Select lag order VAR(p) U.K. Male Population U.K. Female Population - The eigenvalues are bigger than one in absolute value. This means that the VAR could be explode because its characteristic polynomial has unit roots.

29. UNIT ROOT TESTS: ADF (MALE) CAUSES OF DEATH ADFP - VALUE I&P-0.93810,9402 Cancer-0.47840,9798 Circulatory System2.01190,99 Respiratory System-2.330,4414 External-1.21110,8936 Other-1.05490,9219 CAUSES OF DEATH PPP - VALUE I&P-1.72030,9737 Cancer-0.26940,99 Circulatory System1.24550,99 Respiratory System-38.10310,01 External-7.35970,6793 Other-2.51950,9523 CAUSES OF DEATH KPSSP - VALUE I&P2.30310,01 Cancer1.1630,01 Circulatory System2.69370,01 Respiratory System3.03450,01 External3.01380,01 Other2.48340,01

30. UNIT ROOT TESTS: ADF (FEMALE) CAUSES OF DEATH ADFP - VALUE I&P-2.82420,2416 Cancer0.15990,99 Circulatory System1.08730,99 Respiratory System-4.63810,01 External-2.15880,5106 Other-1.01090,9288 CAUSES OF DEATH PPP - VALUE I&P-7.55140,6677 Cancer1.3620,99 Circulatory System1.33360,99 Respiratory System-74.97220,01 External-5.85410,7705 Other-2.60350,95 CAUSES OF DEATH KPSSP - VALUE I&P2.72150,01 Cancer0.58910.02363 Circulatory System2.98830,01 Respiratory System2.13760,01 External2.94350,01 Other1.59030,01

31. Kt First difference, Male

32. Kt First difference, Female

33. Trace Test, Maximum Eigenvalue Test hn-hstat10%5%2.5%1% 410.050419282.703.845.256.98 326.1801608715.7418.0820.2622.40 2324.8302003931.6734.2736.9840.10 1451.0923653950.6254.0257.0161.03 0596.1592135773.7377.6181.2985.56 hn-hstat10%5%2.5%1% 410.050419282.703.845.256.98 326.1297415914.6416.6918.8420.88 2318.6500395321.4423.7525.6828.31 1426.2621649927.3929.9332.2235.57 0545.0668481833.4536.4639.0041.87 MALE

34. Trace Test, Maximum Eigenvalue Test FEMALE hn-hstat10%5%2.5%1% 410.28833532.703.845.256.98 329.528635515.7418.0820.2622.40 2339.216791631.6734.2736.9840.10 1483.838356450.6254.0257.0161.03 05155.029523673.7377.6181.2985.56 hn-hstat10%5%2.5%1% 410.28833532.703.845.256.98 329.240300114.6416.6918.8420.88 2329.688156121.4423.7525.6828.31 1444.621564827.3929.9332.2235.57 0571.191167333.4536.4639.0041.87

35. Forecast VECM and ARIMA 40-4450-54 70-74 80-84

36. MAPE VECMARIMA 20021,32%0,72% 20031,40%1,03% 20041,55%1,42% 20051,78%1,72% 20062,43%2,46% 20072,53%2,55% 20083,17%3,21% 20093,30%3,35% VECMARIMA 20021,08%0,76% 20031,63%1,31% 20041,44%1,47% 20051,74%1,83% 20061,84%2,04% 20072,17%2,31% 20082,40%2,42% 20092,85%2,93% MAL E FEMAL E

37. Age at entry/Duration4060 1062,65532,64 20120,72981,14 Age at entry/Duration4060 1090,19749,04 20175,951.320,07 Table 1. Actuarial Periodic Premium – Female. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Table 1.a Standard Insured Loan – SIL Table 1.b Specific Insured Loan – SpeIL Table 2. Actuarial Periodic Premium Table 3. Actuarial Periodic Premium Female non-smokers. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Female smokers. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10262,4831,4 20422,31198,6 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10352,211304,3 20580,72034,17 Table 2.a Stand. C. I. Loan Table 2.b Standard C.I. Loan Table 3.a Stand. C. I. Loan Table 3.b Standard C.I. Loan (Stand Alone)- SCILsa (Accelerated) – SCILa (Stand Alone)- SCILsa (Accelerated) – SCILa Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10285,62925,37 20456,981424,2 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10213,8805 20273,2925,8

38. Age at entry/Duration4060 1064,87746,67 20129,591.440,78 Age at entry/Duration4060 10108,231.251,55 20231,062.106,08 Table 1. Actuarial Periodic Premium – Male. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Table 1.a Standard Insured Loan – SIL Table 1.b Specific Insured Loan – SpeIL Table 2. Actuarial Periodic Premium Table 3. Actuarial Periodic Premium Male non-smokers. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Male smokers. Issue Time 2014, r = 2%, i = 7%, C = 200.000 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10218,71339,6 20429,72049,7 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10547,72975 201035,24686,7 Table 2.a Stand. C. I. Loan Table 2.b Standard C.I. Loan Table 3.a Stand. C. I. Loan Table 3.b Standard C.I. Loan (Stand Alone)- SCILsa (Accelerated) – SCILa (Stand Alone)- SCILsa (Accelerated) – SCILa Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10260,271515,2 20498,182373,1 Age at ent./ Duration 4060 10440,62378 20834,23590,5

39. Amortization Schedule Table 7.a. Amortization Schedule. Table 7.a. Amortization Schedule. Issue Time 2014, r = 7%, C = 200.000, n = 10 Issue Time 2014, r = 7%, C = 200.000, n = 20 Mat. Financial Instalment Payment due in case of insolvency 128.475.50214.000,00 228.475,50198.511,21 328.475,50181.938,21 428.475,50164.205,10 528.475,50145.230,66 628.475,50124.928,02 728.475,50103.204,22 828.475,5079.959,72 928.475,5055.088,10 1028.475,5028.475,49 Mat. Financial Instalment Payment due in case of insolvency Maturity Financial Instalment Payment due in case of insolvency 118.878,59214.000,001118.878,59141.876,95 218.878,59208.779,911218.878,59131.608,26 318.878,59203.194,411318.878,59120.620,75 418.878,59197.217,951418.878,59108.864,10 518.878,59190.823,101518.878,5996.284,51 618.878,59183.980,651618.878,5982.824,33 718.878,59176.659,191718.878,5968.421,95 818.878,59168.825,251818.878,5953.011,41 918.878,59160.442,951918.878,5936.961,41 1018.878,59151.473,852018.878,59

40. Global Installment Age at entry/ Duration 4060 1028761.1229400.87 2019335.5720302.75 Age at entry/ Duration 4060 1028565.6929224.54 2019054.5420198.66 Age at entry/ Duration 4060 1028538.1529008.14 2018999.3119859.73 Age at entry/ Duration 4060 1028738.8829307.03 2019300.8720077.33 Table 8.a. Global annual obligation. Table 8.b. Global annual obligation. Standard C.I. Loan (Accelerated) – SCILa Standard Insured Loan – SIL Female non smokers, C=200000, i=7%, r=2% Female non smokers, C=200000, i=7%, r=2% Table 8.c Global annual obligation. Table 8.c Global annual obligation. Specific C.I. Loan (Accelerated)- SCILsa Specific Insured Loan – SpeIL Female non smokers, C=200000, i=7%, r=2% Female, C=200000, i=7%, r=2%

41. Conclusions The causes of death are competing risk, a dependence exists between them. We introduce a new method to better understand the dependence between all causes of death, also mitigating the discontinuity points. We can propose tailored contract modelling the cause – specific deaths.

42. Vincenzo Passannante Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno vpassannante@unisa.it Thanks for your attention