1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Ways forward with developing working sustainable biomass markets International Workshop: “Woodfuel Supply Chain – Sharing Experiences”, Warwick - United Kingdom, September 14-19, 2008. André Faaij Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Problems of bioenergy today GHG balances not OK Endless subsidies needed. Land and water constrain bioenergy to marginal levels. Increases food prices and not good for farmers. Other alternatives (solar, efficiency, hydrogen) are better and really sustainable.

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management THIS hasn’t changed (on the contrary): Houston we have a problem! Peak oil Peak soil Peak water Peak biodiversity loss Peak population Peak GDP Climate Agriculture Energy Biodiversity Poverty & development And it is urgent!

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Energy & climate crisis can only be tackled by a portfolio of all options we have available. GHG mitigation Potentials [IPCC AR4, 2007]

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Agricultural land use! We need a lot more food (especially protein). We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land. Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s. Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting; Agricultural productivity is low on large parts of the globe. Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such. Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Uncertainties and key issues Water resources Management of biodiversity Interaction with conventional markets (food, forestry). Proper GHG accounting and land-use management. Balanced economic development (macro & micro scale).

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management What’s it gonna be?

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Integration… Pfff, it’s complex… Dornburg et al., 2008

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Limitations in potentials: agri yields Compact food production >Biomass yield increase Dornburg et al., 2008

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yields: perennials ~3x annual CropBiomass yield (odt/ha* yr) Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr) Wheat4 - 5~ 50 Corn5 – 6~ 60 Sugar Beet9 – 10~ 110 Soy Bean1 – 2~ 20 Sugar Cane10 – 20~ 180 Palm Oil10-15~ 160 Jathropha5-6~ 60 SRC temperate climate10 – 15100 - 180 SRC tropical climate15 - 30170 - 350 Energy grasses good conditions10 - 20170 – 230 Perennials marginal/degraded lands3 - 1030 – 120

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Limitations in degraded land, protected areas and water

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Impacts on (woody) crop potentials Dornburg et al., 2008

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overall Picture Yes, biomass can play a significant role in future energy supply Dornburg et al., 2008

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key uncertainties biomass potentials Dornburg et al., 2008

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management So… Investment in agriculture (and livestock) is essential (2 nd green revolution) This is feasible (and necessary…) …with increased water use efficiency, less land, protection of soils and better incomes. …and essential for food security. Bioenergy can get the money and sustainable economic activity into the rural regions…

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management A future vision on global bioenergy… [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008]

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Certification bioenergy: ongoing initiatives Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and more EU nations…; EC, US, DC’s… NGO’s & International bodies. Market initiatives/multistakeholder: roundtables on palm, soy, sugar and biofuels, utilities,… IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2008; Biomass & Bioenergy. www.bioenergytrade.org

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Cramer Cie.: minimum safeguard-> stabilisation-> improvement… 1.GHG balance -> Chain performance (30-80%+..) 2.Land-use/competition with food: reporting; to be developed. 3.Biodiversity -> reporting/FSC/RSPO; to be developed. 4.Wellfare -> Reporting EPI; to be developed further. 5.Well being -> ILO, Social accountability standards, etc. 6.Environment –Waste; law, GPG’s –Agrochemicals; law, GPG’s (further development). –Soil quality; reporting/monitoring (further development). –Water quality & quantity; law, reporting/monitoring (further development). Cramer et al., 2007

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Certification bioenergy: concerted action… First time that governments actually try to set ‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! -> Paradigm shift with implications for food products, fodder, materials etc. This takes time (allow for learning). Concerns differ: palm oil/soy bean/corn… most debated, other (residues, wood) largely approved Methodological issues to be resolved: competition, biodiversity, a.o. Global convergence, dialogue and deployment priority (leadership needed).

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Operationalisation of sustainability criteria costs land availability Criteria deforestation competition with food production biodiversity soil erosion fresh water nutrient leaching pollution from chemicals employment child labour wages Impact crop management system yield quantity cost supply curve [Smeets et al., 2005/2008]

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Ethanol in Brazil; the costs of compliance with various sustainability criteria compared to the reference situation Smeets, Junginger, Faaij, Walter, Dolzan, 2006/2008

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Estimated future costs of sugarcane and ethanol production assuming 8% annual growth Explaining the experience curve: Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane J.D. van den Wall Bake, M. Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot, A. da Silva Walter Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Land use change Indonesia [Wicke, et al., 2008 (forthcoming)]

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG emissions for different palm oil production and supply systems [Wicke, et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008]

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG Balances and land conversion issues Forested peatland: extremely high emissions Natural rainforest: high emissions Base case - Logged over forest: emissions about half of modern natural gas power Degraded land: CO2 uptake 3372 g CO2-eq / kWh Fossil reference electricity production CPO electricity Cases [Wicke, et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008]

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yield developments in Europe Historic yield development  example: wheat Average yields plotted for The Western European Countries The Central and Eastern European Countries Significant difference! [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yield projections Europe Observed yield CEEC and WEC Linear extrapolation of historic trends Widening yield gap Applied scenarios Low, baseline and high [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results - spatial production potential Arable land available for dedicated bio-energy crops divided by the total land [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results - spatial cost distribution Production cost (€ GJ -1 ) for Grassy crops [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

30. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results – cost-supply curves Production costs vs. supply potential for 2010, 2020 and 2030 Variation areas indicated around the curves represent uncertainties and scenario variables. Only CEEC cost level increases [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

31. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Total energy potential under three different crop schemes. ‘ Low yielding crops’: all arable land available planted with oil crops. ‘High yielding crops’: all available land planted with grass crops. [Wit & Faaij, 2008]

32. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Economic performance 2 nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3 Euro/GJ feedstock [Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006]

33. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Cost reduction potential in 2 nd generation technologies. [Wit, Junginger, Faaij, et al. 2008]

34. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Development in net feedstock use for biofuels (REFUEL project; example scenario) [www.refuel.org, 2008]

35. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management key issues (I) Resources need to meet criteria in broad sense. Resource base needs to be diversified (lignocellulose, cultivated, marginal & degraded lands). Real market experience needs to be built in different settings (DC’s!). Sustainable (international) markets and certification to be established. International collaboration and harmonization on criteria and standards. Stable and coherent policies.

36. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key issues (II) Consider bioenergy as one option and not just biofuels; use power and heat market as stepping stones for 2 nd gen. biofuels. Use niches for biofuels (residues with add on hydrolysis units and co-gasification of biomass). Facilitate learning (conversion, supply infrastructure, biomass production). Stable and coherent policies.

37. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Stay with me for 3 more seconds… Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2 nd revolution!), development (poverty!), energy (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a unique position. We have the bioenergy options to achieve synergies (as well as the wrong ones) Governance is the key; across policy fields (agriculture, energy, climate, development); consistent and stable.

38. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Thanks for your attention www.bioenergytrade.org

39. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management

40. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Presenter Contact: a.p.c.faaij@uu.nl