1. Internal Migration and Development in the Philippines Nimfa B. Ogena University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI) ogena@upd.edu.ph

2. Introduction For nearly 3 decades, internal migration studies have been overshadowed by international migration studies, particularly labor migration Between 2005 and 2010, the stock of overseas Filipinos increased by 2.5 million from 7.0 million in 2005 to 9.5 million in 2010. Official estimate of DFA, POEA and CFO as of Dec. 2013 indicates that the number of overseas Filipinos has reached 10.2 million.

3. The infrastructure is well set up for collecting and managing data especially on international labor migration Many countries even look up to the Philippines as a model for the efficient administration of its labor export policy although some controversial problematic cases surface from time to time Remittances of overseas Filipinos have been closely monitored by the government with the hope that their use would ultimately feed into national development outcomes. Overseas Filipinos have become modern day heroes.

4. How about internal migrants? Census on Population and Housing (CPH) 5-year period migration estimates from data collected: Current residence Previous residence (asked for 5 years old and above) Date moved to the current residence Collected for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010 Censuses

5. Migration Matrix Residence 5 years ago Region /provi nce123...JTotal Current residence 1NM 1 M 12 M 13...M 1J P1P1 2M 21 NM 2 M 23...P2P2 3M 31 M 32 NM 3...P3P3........................... JM J1 M J2 M J3...NM J PJPJ TotalC1C1 C2C2 C3C3 CJCJ T

6. The 2010 CPH reported t about 2.9 million Filipinos changed residence between 2005 to 2010 About 1.4 million of the increment in the OF stock are temporary labor migrants who are also counted in the CPH as a member of the household. Therefore, there were only 1.1 million international migrants vs. 2.9 million internal migrants 1 international migrant per 2 internal migrants

7. As in previous mid-decade censuses, the 2015 CPH will not be gathering data on migration for the period 2010 to 2015 Other possible sources of data on migration special surveys administrative data

8. What migration data do we get from the census? IndicatorsYears coveredPublished level of disaggregation In-migration rate (number of in-migrants per 1000 population) by sex Out-migration rate (number of out-migrants per 1000 population) by sex Net migration rate (number of out-migrants per 1000 population) by sex 1995-2000Region, Province, Sex Latest Published Internal Migration Statistics based on 2000 CPH Source: Appendix A of the 2000-based Philippine Population Projections

9. Inter-regional Net Migration Rates by Region: 1995-2000 Gaining RegionsLosing regions REGION IVANCR REGION IIIREGION V REGION IREGION IX CARCARAGA REGION VIIREGION VI REGION XREGION VIII ARMM REGION XI REGION XII REGION II REGION IVB Source: Appendix A of the 2000-based Philippine Population Projections

10. Inter-regional Migration, 2005-2010 Gaining Regions REGION III REGION IVA REGION VII CAR REGION XI CARAGA Source: Small Working Group on Migration of the Inter-Agency Committee on Population Projections for the 2010 CPH based population projections

11. Inter-regional Migration, 2005-2010 Losing Regions NCR REGION I REGION II REGION IVB REGION V REGION VI REGION VIII REGION IX REGION X REGION XII ARMM

12. TypeTrendRegions exhibiting the trend 1 Increasing positive 2 Decreasing positiveRegions 3, 4a, 7 3 Increasing negativeRegions 1, 2, 4b and 10 4 Decreasing negativeRegions 5, 6, 8, 9, 12, NCR and ARMM 5 Positive to negative 6 Negative to positiveCAR, Region 11 and Caraga trends of NMRs during 1995-2000 and 2005-2010 Note: the regions exhibited types 2, 3, 4 and 6 only Inter-regional net migration rates for base year 2010: Source: Small Working Group on Migration of the Inter-Agency Committee on Population Projections for the 2010 CPH based population projections

13. Inter-provincial Migration, 2005-2010 Provinces with more than 20 thousand net migrants gained CAVITE LAGUNA RIZAL BULACAN

14. Inter-provincial Migration, 2005-2010 Provinces with more than 15 thousand net migrants lost PANGASINAN NEGROS OCCIDENTAL QUEZON

15. Internal Migration and Development Nexus Migration, Population Distribution and Urbanization Labor Market Conditions (Income, employment) Migration and Poverty (Remittances) Migration and Health Education and Migration Migration, Housing and Security Environment and inequity/access to services Etc.

16. Study Objectives 1. Identify development factors associated with inter-provincial net migration gain/lose ; 2. Examine how being a net migration gaining/losing province move selected development variables.

17. Inter-provincial Migration, 2005-2010 The NMRs were used to categorize the provinces as gaining or losing provinces for the subsequent analyses.

18. Development Indicators Health Total Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate Child Woman Ratio 2000 Proportion of barangays with health station 2007 Percentage of barangays with hospital LT 5% in 2000 Education Growth rate of college graduates or higher 2005- 2010 Percentage of barangays with college/university LT 4% 2000

19. Development Indicators Economy Inflation Rate (in percent) 2008 Number of Establishments (in 100) 2000 Number of Operating Ecozone Purchasing Power of Peso (2006=100) in 2008 LT 0.90 Labor Market Employment rate GE 95 (in percent) 2009 Poverty Incidence (in percent) 2006 Average Annual Family Income (in 100,000) 2006 Average Annual Family Expenditure (in 100,000) 2006

20. Development Indicators Urbanization Number of Urban Barangays 2007 Number of Telephone Lines Installed 2009 Paved Roads (in km) 2005 Percentage of barangays with access to national highway GT 75% 2000 Security Crime Rate per 100,000 population, 2010 Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems 20 Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 2009 03

21. Development Indicators Access to services Number of Urban Barangays 2007 Number of Telephone Lines Installed 2009 Paved Roads (in km) 2005 Security Crime Rate per 100,000 population, 2010Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems 2003

22. Odds ratios for Bivariate Models Predicting Positive NMR (2005-2010) in Philippine provinces Predictors Odds Ratio Total Fertility Rate0.333* Poverty Incidence (in percent) 20060.956** Employment rate (in percent) 20090.998* Average Annual Family Income (in 100,000) 20066.535** Average Annual Family Expenditure (in 100,000) 200612.428** Inflation Rate (in percent) 20080.809* Growth rate of college graduates or higher 2005- 20101.059+

23. Odds ratios for Bivariate Models Predicting Positive NMR (2005-2010) in Philippine provinces (cont.) Predictors Odds Ratio Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems 20030.421+ Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 200911.733* Percentage of barangays with access to national highway GT 75% 20002.348+ Percentage of barangays with college/university LT 4% 20000.442+

24. Odds ratios for Multivariate Models Predicting Positive NMR (2005-2010) in Philippine provinces Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Percentage of barangays with access to national highway GT 75% 2000.572.603 Average Annual Family Income (in 100,000) 2006 5.1772.447 4.881 Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 2009.092.124 Have Barangays with Peace and Order Problems 2003 2.083 Inflation Rate (2006=100), 2008.902 Percentage of barangays with college/university LT 4% 2000 1.889 Constant.1113.270.637 A 100,000 thousand increase in the average annual family income increases by about 5 times the odds to be a migrant-gaining province holding the effect of the crime rate constant. Having a crime rate of at least 1/100 population reduces by 89% the odds of a positive NMR.

25. Bivariate correlations of NMR (2005-2010) with selected recent indicators NMR Poverty Incidence 2012-0.34611** Crime Rate greater than 1 per 100 population, 20120.12017 Poverty incidence in 2012 is significantly lower for provinces that gained migrants during the period 2005-2010. Being a migrant-losing or migrant-gaining province during the period 2002- 2010 does not matter as far as crime rate of 1/100 or higher in 2012 is concerned.

26. Summary and Conclusion Migrant-gaining provinces are associated with higher Annual family income Annual family expenditures and High crime rate (greater than 1/100 population). Higher income is associated with greater odds of a positive NMR. Having a crime rate greater than 1/100 population reduces by 89% the odds of a positive NMR.

27. Development Data Issues Changes of area boundaries Changes of definitions used Frequency and timely release administrative data collected by government agencies Prompt publication/sharing of at least provincial- level data to stakeholders

28. Migration Data Issues Need to fill the gap in measuring internal migration via census advocate for inclusion of migration questions in mid- decade census Changes of area boundaries Under-enumeration across census Duration of “residence” (Permanent/Temporary) “Double-counting” – in place of origin and in place of destination

29. Reporting of migration data Types of migration (lifetime, seasonal, circular, 5-year or 1-year period migration rates) Level of measurement (inter-regional, inter-provincial; Number of migrants/Rates) Disaggregation of internal migration data (by age, sex, administrative data) Types of migration (lifetime, period migration, seasonal, circular) Frequency of reporting: 5-years, 2-years, 1-year Prompt publication/sharing to stakeholders of internal migration data from CPH and other data sources

30. Recommendations Further research on the migration and development nexus Advocacy by stakeholders for Making the National Migration Survey a designated survey, with initial assessment of migration data needs Synchronization of national and local migration data collection initiatives Regularity and timely release of publication of internal migration statistics Public use access to internal migration data, free if possible for researchers

31. Internal Migration and Development in the Philippines Nimfa B. Ogena University of the Philippines Population Institute (UPPI) ogena@upd.edu.ph