1. Building Climate Readiness in Nature-Based Tourism-Dependent Coastal Communities along the North Shore of Lake Superior Karly Bitsura-Meszaros, Jordan W. Smith, Mae Davenport, Erin Seekamp, & Dorothy Anderson

2. Recreational Opportunities Hiking Boating Swimming Driving for pleasure Fishing Off-road ATV driving Snowmobiling Gathering wild foods STUDY AREA Tourism-Dependent 5.76 million person-visits $1 billion in travel-related expenditures 25,000 full-time equivalent jobs (Davidson-Peterson Associates, 2008) North Shore, Minnesota A region with a vast array of natural resources that foster coastal and nature-based tourism.

3. CLIMATE AND RECREATION Physical Impacts Extreme weather events can damage tourism infrastructure. Slow, incremental changes can shorten recreation seasons. Reduction in ice thickness and snow depths in winter. Species’ habitats may shift or be lost. Tourism Flow The perception of risk associated with climate impacts can affect visitation, leading to altered trip-taking behavior. The physical impacts can alter individuals’ decisions about the time of year they choose to visit

4. Funding Agency Minnesota Sea Grant PROJECT INTRODUCTION Investigators University of Minnesota North Carolina State University Carleton College

5. OVERARCHING GOALS Assess the capacity of local communities to adapt to changing climatic conditions. Determine the risks to tourism destinations and recreation resources. Develop and deliver web-based decision- support tools for adaptive planning. GOAL 1 GOAL 2 GOAL 3

7. Assemble Project Action Team (PAT) Evaluate local management plans Conduct stakeholder interviews and focus groups (Insert photos from July)

8. Identify key climate variables Average daily: High/low wind chill temperatures High/low real temperatures Snow depth Inland ice thickness Select GCM ensemble from NCAR Medium, high and low scenarios Model climate variables Employ in visitor survey

9. Gather visitation data from tourism destinations Regress past climate conditions against visitation data

10. Develop on-site survey instrument To measure visitors’: Current use Contingent trip behavior Risk perceptions Place attachment Piloted in November Winter sampling begins today Summer sampling in June

11. For use in capacity building outreach with PAT Web-maps will display results of adaptive capacity assessments They will also display visualizations of current/projected conditions Participatory GIS exercise with PAT

12. MANAGEMENT PLAN EVALUATION To determine the extent to which existing resource management plans address climate-related impacts to the region’s natural systems and the recreational activities that depend upon them. Types of Plans (N=16)Inclusion Criteria Cook or Lake County Grand Marais, Lutsen, or Finland Grand Portage Indian Reservation Contain management strategies Soil and water management Emergency management Transportation plans Wildfire management Coastal management Land use

13. METHODOLOGY Adapted from Preston, Westaway & Yeun’s (2011) tool for climate adaptation plans Expanded to assess climate-related and general vulnerabilities independently Expanded to see the inclusion of different types of resources (wildlife, forest, water, recreational) Scored on a three-point scale ADAPTATION STAGES AND PROCESSES Goal-Setting Stock-Taking Decision-Making Implementation and Evaluation Articulation of objectives, goals and priorities Identification of success criteria Assessment of human capital Assessment of social capital Assessment of natural capital Assessment of physical capital Assessment of financial capital Stakeholder engagement Assessment of climate drivers Assessment of non-climate drivers Assessment of impacts, vulnerability and/or risk Acknowledgement of uncertainties Options appraisal Exploitation of synergies Mainstreaming Communication and outreach Definition of roles and responsibilities Implementation Monitoring, evaluation and review

15. CONTRIBUTIONS Project as a Whole Benefits to the communities Stakeholder engagement Access to project data & findings Iterative multidisciplinary process Full assessment of climate readiness Policy Analysis User friendly Easily transferrable Identifies “unintentional” climate change impact coverage

16. AMS 2015 Phoenix, AZ January 7, 2015 Contact Information Karly Bitsura-Meszaros, NC State University kameszar@ncsu.edu Jordan Smith, NC State University jordan_smith@ncsu.edu Mae Davenport, University of Minnesota mdaven@umn.edu