1. Student Assignment Analysis for the Lexington Public Schools Project Progress & Scenario Presentation for The Lexington School Committee March 8, 2016

2. Presentation Overview Project Update Background Information Projections, Growth Rates, Enrollment Presentation of Alternate Scenarios Modest and Larger Scale Scenarios Consideration of Buffer Zone Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

3. Project Update Activities & Progress: – Processed and evaluated existing data – Finalized student assignment considerations – Established scenario evaluation criteria – Created scenario “building blocks” – Developed alternate scenarios – Ongoing collaboration with principals, working group and Student Assignment Committee Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

4. Background Information Context for Student Assignment

5. Current Elementary Students Distribution by School Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

6. Average Annual School District Growth Rates (Since 2007-2008) Source: LPS ESTABROOK +2.40% FISKE +2.34% HASTINGS +0.34% BRIDGE +2.12% BOWMAN +2.48% HARRINGTON +1.25% Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

7. Increase in Student Enrollment Since 2007-08 (# of students) Source: LPS ESTABROOK +88 FISKE +84 HASTINGS +11 BRIDGE +81 BOWMAN +100 HARRINGTON +41 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

8. Current Enrollment As of February 29, 2016 Source: LPS ESTABROOK 527 FISKE 528 HASTINGS 437 BRIDGE 575 BOWMAN 592 HARRINGTON 457 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

9. Projected Enrollment for 2019-20 (50 th percentile projection, based on current district boundaries) Source: LPS ESTABROOK 560 FISKE 564 HASTINGS 440 BRIDGE 651 BOWMAN 638 HARRINGTON 463 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

10. Expected Increase in Student Enrollment Based Projected Enrollment for 2019-20 (# of students; 50th percentile projection, based on current district boundaries) Source: LPS ESTABROOK +33 FISKE +36 HASTINGS +3 BRIDGE +76 BOWMAN +46 HARRINGTON +6 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

11. Continued Student Growth Current Enrollment (as of 2/29/16) 2016-17 Oct 1 Projection Bowman 592595 ± 42 Bridge 575604 ± 64 Fiske 528535 ± 50 Estabrook 527528 ± 45 Harrington 457451 ± 67 Hastings 437434 ± 28 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

12. Potential Student Assignment Scenarios

13. Scenario Review General Comments Students potentially impacted in scenarios: Some incoming K without older sibling in LPS Small number of current K (future 1 st graders) Incoming K data is based on census responses which is limited in its accuracy/completeness All 5-year views are based on current elementary students and expected kindergarteners Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

14. “Components” Areas considered for boundary change Criteria for defining components 1.Geographic – contiguous with district boundaries 2.Density of student population 3.Proximity to elementary schools 4.Walkability and ease of transportation *Colored dots represent all existing students (K-5) in each component Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

15. ESTABROOK Grade 1 +7 Grade K +4 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 BRIDGE Grade K -4 HASTINGS Grade K +16 FISKE Grade K -5 Grade 1 -10 Modest Scenario Strategy: 1.Fiske components to Estabrook & Harrington 2.Bridge, Harrington, Bowman components to Hastings Pros: 1.Utilizes space in Hastings 2.Bridge, Bowman and Harrington components picked for distance from school and transportation convenience – no walkability compromised 3.Fiske gets 1 st grade relief 4.Allows room for projected growth at Estabrook Cons: 1.Does not make immediate use of all space available at Estabrook 2.May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students BOWMAN Grade K -4 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

16. ESTABROOK Across Grades +73 HARRINGTON Across Grades -33 BOWMAN Across Grades -45 BRIDGE Across Grades -36 HASTINGS Across Grades +145 FISKE Across Grades -104 Modest Scenario Potentially in 5 Years Using Current Student Locations and extrapolating 1.Bridge, Bowman and Harrington would get modest relief over 5 years 2.Fiske could potentially see significant relief 3.Hastings could have an additional 145 students 4.Keeping expected growth in mind, Estabrook may become over-crowded Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

17. ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +7 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 BRIDGE Grade K -6 HASTINGS Grade K +16 FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 1 Strategy: 1.Incoming K from Bowman, Bridge & Harrington to Hastings 2.South of Rte 2 from Bridge and Avalon Lexington Ridge from Bowman 3.Incoming K from Hastings and incoming K, 1 from Fiske to Estabrook Pros: 1.Utilizes some available space 2.Bowman, Bridge, Fiske get modest relief 3.Allows for projected growth at Estabrook next year Cons: 1.Does not make immediate use of all space available at Estabrook 2.Potential impact on later assignments for new Hastings 3.May impact MS feeder pattern or transportation BOWMAN Grade K -7 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

18. ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +19 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 +3 HASTINGS Grade K +16 Grade 1 -12 Strategy: 1.Move K and 1 from Hastings to Estabrook to use Estabrook space Pros: 1.Utilizes space at Hastings & Estabrook 2.Bowman and Bridge get modest relief 3.Fiske gets relief in 1 st grade Cons: 1.Potential impact on later assignment changes for larger new Hastings 2.Long term risk of overcrowding at Estabrook 3.May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students BOWMAN Grade K -7 FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 BRIDGE Grade K -6 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 2

19. ESTABROOK Grade K +11 Grade 1 +19 HARRINGTON Grade K -7 Grade 1 -4 HASTINGS Grade K +16 Grade 1 +12 Strategy: 1.Same as Scenario 1, but move K & 1 from all schools to use Estabrook space Pros: 1.Use space at Hastings & Estabrook 2.Bowman and Bridge get modest relief 3.Fiske gets relief in 1 st grade Cons: 1.Hastings gains 12 1 st graders 2.Potential impact on later assignments for new Hastings 3.Long term risk of overcrowding at Estabrook 4.May impact current middle school feeder pattern or transportation experience for some students BOWMAN Grade K -7 Grade 1 -9 FISKE Grade K -7 Grade 1 -11 BRIDGE Grade K -6 Grade 1 -7 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Larger Scale Scenario: Variation 3

20. ESTABROOK Across Grades +180 HARRINGTON Across Grades -33 HASTINGS Across Grades +104 Larger Scale Scenario Potentially in 5 Years BOWMAN Across Grades -71 FISKE Across Grades -131 BRIDGE Across Grades -49 Using current student locations and extrapolating 1.Bridge, Bowman and Harrington would potentially get significant relief over 5 years 2.Fiske could potentially see larger relief 3.Hastings could have an additional 104 students 4.Keeping expected growth in mind, Estabrook could be significantly over- crowded Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

21. Buffer Strategy Future Bowman/Bridge Buffer Future Hastings/Estabrook Buffer Strategy: 1.If a larger scale scenario is adopted then Estabrook will see potential overcrowding in 5 years. To manage growth, a buffer zone could be used between Hastings and Estabrook 2.Additional buffers could be located in 2 of areas of high density, Katahdin Dr & Avalon Main Campus Dr Pros: 1.Provides School District flexibility to manage enrollment and space use over time Cons: 1.Buffers are a new concept in Lexington 2.Administrative challenges Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

22. Buffer Zones A “buffer zone” is defined as a specified area between two or more school assignment areas that permits individual addresses to be assigned to two or more schools. All other assignment area lines are fixed and students living within these boundaries are assigned to one school based on address. Brookline, Newton & Arlington use buffer zones Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

23. Fixed District Lines including Specified Buffer Zones Pros No impact on students already enrolled in schools Allows siblings to attend the same school Can be designed to target areas of high density/growth Allows for adjustments to maximize space use and better achieve parity across schools in response to population shifts Cons May create uncertainty for new families Administrative processes are reported to be time consuming No certainty that a specific buffer zone will adequately address overcrowding over time Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

24. Example of Buffer Zones from Surrounding Communities Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

25. Scenario Recap Modest Approach has less impact on current district boundaries and while it may not meet near term goals of fully utilizing existing space, it anticipates the projected growth at Estabrook. Larger Scale Approach meets near-term goals of using available space, but will likely create overcrowding at Estabrook in the future. Buffer Zones, in combination with either of the approaches above, have been shown to be a successful strategy to mitigate overcrowding and support equitable distribution. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

26. Next Steps Presentation/discussion at public forums – Estabrook - March 12, 10AM-noon – Clarke - March 16, 7-9PM Ongoing collaboration with Working Group to review public and SC feedback Student Assignment Committee Meetings – April 7 & 12 School Committee Meeting – April 26 Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools

27. Thank you.

28. Lexington Homes Year Built Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Note on Data: Data from Lexington Assessors database; querying on YearBuilt field. Not all condo developments have YearBuilt information.

29. Note on Data: Data from Lexington Assessors database; querying on LastSaleDate field. Presentation Prepared by Applied Geographics, Inc. and Lexington Public Schools Lexington Properties Last Sale Year