1. WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr RCOF concept and Outcomes Geneva – WMO Headquarter 05-07 April 2011

2. 2 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Outline RCOFs process Main Objectives RCOFs concept Preforum Forum Dissemination Update verification RCOFs outcomes Capacity Building National Forecasts Consensus discussion

3. 3 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Targeted framework NMHSs (National Level) GPCs Monitoring & Forecast (Global Level) RCC (Regional Level) Users (National) Water ressources Agriculture Energy Health … National Partners Regional Partners International Partners National Organisation & NGO MWG MEDIA Regional Users MEDIA

4. 4 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 The RCOFs Processes Main Objectives To reduce the socio-economic vulnerabilty of countries to the impacts of Climate events, To strengthen the capacity of NMHS and their users in the domain of Long Range Forecasts and their use, To provide usefull and comprehensible products to the benefit of end-users (from making decision domain, National Authorities, Agriculture, hydrology, health domain, …).

5. 5 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 RCOF concept Preforum Presentation of key points for the next (rainy) season, Preparation of national statistical forecasts, Capacity building activity to the benefit of NMHS and users in relationship with the general topics of Fora Sharing of experience in creating new products or improving exixting material, Forum Presentation of the last informations on the climate system and its evolution, Elaboration of consensus and regional products for the next rainy season, Presentation and discussion about specific topics (Agriculture, Climate forecasting, Hydrology, Climate and Health, Communication, …). Discussion on expected, desirable and/or realistic developpments,

6. 6 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 RCOF concept Dissemination Dissemination of products by the NMHS, including national adaptation of regional products. Interpretation to the benefit of users through Multidisciplinary Working Group (impacts of the forecast on the targetted domain). Communication Media involvment (Press release, TV, … ) Update of the forecasts (Monthly base) Continuous adaptation of the forecasts to the last available information on the climate system and its evolutions (notably update of the SST). Adaptation of the users to the updated forecast (?) Evaluation of Forecasts Quality of the forecasts (technical evaluation) and use of the Forecast. Remark : the relevant Lead-time is a crucial input for the organisation of the RCOFs

7. 7 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 RCOF components Capacity Building To develop regional and national capacities in Seasonal Forecasting Learning tools and methods Improving Climate Knowledge Learning user liaison National Forecasts To help in tailoring/adapting the National Forecasts with respect of the global and regional climate context Using statistical methods (e.g. using Observed SSTs) Using MOS methods (e.g. using forecasted Large Scale Conditions) Using tailoring methods (e.g. river flow, Malaria risk, … )

8. 8 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 RCOF components Consensus process To develop a consensus view of expected seasonal anomalies Across various forecast products Across various geographical regions and national boundaries To issue a consensus product (at regional scale) Using wholly objective methods (e.g. MME) Using objective-subjective mix (e.g. NCEP-CPC outlook over USA, RCOF consensus processes, … ) Using wholly subjective methods (e.g. knowledge of climatology, current conditions and expert judgement)

9. 9 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) NMHSs National Forecasts + Downscaling MWG GPCs Forecasts (« large scales » and SSTs ) Multi-disciplinary Working Groups (MWG) Consensus Discussion Regional Forecast Users (National & Regional) 18 countries Euro-Sip Partners + IRI Other Forecasts e.g. African Desk

10. 10 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) SST Evolutions : Coupled models, spread of the ensembles and their consistency SST Scores from GPCs or like-GPCs (SVS) MME compositions (expert assessment ?) Corrections of SST based national forecasts Large Scale circulation and expected impacts : GCMs, spread of the ensembles and their consistency Parameters scores from GPCs or like-GPCs MME compositions (expertise ?) Consistency with national forecasts Regional and National Climate knowledge National forecast : SST based Downscaling based (MOS) Tailoring based (MOS)

11. 11 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) SST Evolutions :

12. 12 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) Large Scale Circulation and its impacts :

13. 13 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 9 GPC ensemble-mean precip forecasts JJA 2010 Beijing Melbourne MoscowMontreal Exeter Seoul ECMWFWashington Coupled ocean- atmosphere models 2-tier (un- coupled) models Tokyo

14. 14 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) National forecast :

15. 15 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 RCOF process and GFCS Relevant operationnal mechanism : Process and convey climate information within the 3-level structure mostly to the benefit of the national level Climate and user oriented information Strengthenning capacities at the regional and national level Experience and best practises : More than 10 year experience (especially in operation and user liaison) Sustainability demonstrated (depiste some local difficulties) Evaluation in 2008 (accumulation of best practises and guidance on Operations, Linkage with research, User liaison, …) Some quality assessment of the consensus products (including SVS evaluation) User dedicated COF : Hydrology, Health (Malaria – MALOF) Replication of the mechanism to the application domain demonstrated

16. WMO Workshop on Strategy for implementation of CSIS J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr GPC Toulouse

17. 17 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 A Traditional RCOF consensus Scheme (Presao-SG) Consensus discussion : Discussion of the main expected scenarios for the SSTs and the expected impact over the region (including discussion about uncertainties) Starting with a first guess (built on the national country forecasts) and comparing with the GCMs’ consensus Discussion point by point on the number and limits of the different zones and associated probabilities (including consequences of uncertainties in the large scale signal onto the national forecasts) Remarks about discussion : Strong and stimulating discussion Difficulties inherent to the different forecasts and their weights Strong bias in the probabilities (verification by Acmad and IRI - 2008) Downscaling shoud facilitate the discussion Purely electronic discussion possible (SEECOF experience)

18. 18 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Unofficial draft GPC consensus: 33 40 25 35 30 35 Beijing Exeter Seoul Model consensus ‘dry’ Consensus ‘wet’ Some signal for ‘wet’, positioning uncertain

19. 19 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Expertised bulletin : Global Climate Bulletin (GCB) Multi disciplinary Expert Team (Mercator, Cerfacs, CNRM, DClim) Monthly update, Expected lead-time 1 month for forecasts, edited by the end of the current month (for next 3 month forecasts – note the relationship with expected Lead-Time) GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin

20. 20 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Global Climate Bulletin n°132 (issued end of May) April 2010 observations JJA 2010 forecasts

21. 21 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin CEPMMT Météo-France Pacifique tropical: poursuite « La Niña » Atlantique: tropical Nord et septentrional chauds Bonne cohérence entre les 2 modèles

22. 22 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Velocity Potential gives insight into the atmospheric response in terms of Hadley- Walker circulation anomalies while the Stream Function gives complementary insight into the atmospheric response to tropical forcing (especially in terms of teleconnections with mid-latitudes) Model response to oceanic forcings (Stream function and Velocity Potential in the high troposphere) OND 2010 forecasts

23. 23 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Good consistency between MF and ECMWF responses to Pacific and Atlantic Tropical forcings: AR predominant Météo-FranceECMWF Consistent signal with a warm Tropical North Atlantic

24. 24 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin

25. 25 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Temperature OND 2010 Rainfall OND 2010

26. 26 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Conclusion on the consensus processes Consensus discussion : Need of a clear guidance for the different steps followed by the consensus discussion Must be « led » by somebody To be run in a step by step maneer with intermediate and consolidated conclusion Must be schedule with enough time for a full and deep discussion in order to avoid then missinterpretation or ambiguity Draft documents to be prepared prior to the discussion Remarks about discussion : All contradictory advices must be expressed and discussed (important for the ownership of the consensus) Difficulties inherent to the different forecasting products (methods, reference datsset for the anomalies, periods, …) Specific issue for the probabilities and uncertainties assessments Purely electronic discussion possible (SEECOF experience, Niño Update, …) in an efficient way Knowledge about GCMs behaviour and performances crucial for the consensus

27. 27 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 MME Products and Consensus

28. 28 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 MME Products and Consensus

29. 29 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 MME Products and Consensus

30. 30 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 MME Products and Consensus

31. 31 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 MME Products and Consensus

32. 32 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Bulletins : -GCB -Web Bulletin (Grand Public) -Monthly Briefing Recording Documentation : -Technical ( modeling, score computation,....) -Scientific -Popular Wiki : -Collaborative work space for GCB Bulletin and others

33. 33 WMO Workshop on CSIS Geneva – 05-07 April 2011 Bulletins : Monthly Briefing Record Bulletin and others