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Market Review February 29, 2016 INTEREST RATES Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Fed Funds Rate0.50 10-Yr Treasury1.7401.9282.273 DJ Corporate3.2593.3503.426 3-Month LIBOR0.630.61 30-Yr Fix Mortgage3.663.734.08 Prime Rate3.50 COMMODITY PRICES Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Gold123411161060 Crude Oil33.7533.6237.04 Gasoline1.7491.7832.000 Natural Gas1.711 2.2982.337 INDEX LEVELS Month-End 2/29/16 Month-End 1/31/16 Year End 12/31/15 Domestic Stocks DJ Industrial Avg.165161646617425 S&P 500193219402043 NASDAQ455746145007 Russell 2000 ® 103310351136 Int’l Stocks MSCI EAFE155815911716 MSCI Emerg. Mkt.740742794 S&P SECTOR YEAR-TO-DATE MTDVal Core Grw Large -0.03 -0.04 Mid 0.701.131.57 Small 0.680.00-0.71 EQUITY STYLE RETURN YTDVal Core Grw Large -5.19-5.41-5.62 Mid -4.86-5.50-6.12 Small -6.08-8.80-11.47 NEWS February was a respite after January’s steep market declines with the S&P 500 posting a small loss of -0.13%, putting its year-to-date loss at -5.09%. The commodities-sensitive materials sector, which includes mining companies, posted the biggest gains in the S&P 500 in February. Materials stocks rose 7.3% in February but are down 19% over the past 12 months Crude oil prices snapped a three-month losing streak and gained 0.4% in February. The crude-oil market is expected to remain oversupplied through the rest of the year. Gold prices rose to $1,234 an ounce, bringing its February gain to 11%.. NEWS February was a respite after January’s steep market declines with the S&P 500 posting a small loss of -0.13%, putting its year-to-date loss at -5.09%. The commodities-sensitive materials sector, which includes mining companies, posted the biggest gains in the S&P 500 in February. Materials stocks rose 7.3% in February but are down 19% over the past 12 months Crude oil prices snapped a three-month losing streak and gained 0.4% in February. The crude-oil market is expected to remain oversupplied through the rest of the year. Gold prices rose to $1,234 an ounce, bringing its February gain to 11%.. TOTAL RETURN Month to Date Year to Date1-Year EQUITIES Russell 3000 ® (Broad US) -0.03%-5.67%-7.84% S&P 500 (Large Cap US) -0.13%-5.09%-6.19% ACWI ex-US (Broad Int’l) -1.11%-7.83%-17.00% MSCI EAFE (Devlpd. Int’l) -1.80%-8.89%-14.80% MSCI Emerging Markets -0.15%-6.62%-23.13% FIXED INCOME BC Aggregate Bond 0.71%2.10%1.50% BC US Universal 0.71%1.82%0.94% B of A ML 3-Month T-Bills 0.03%0.04%0.11% BC Treasury 0.89%3.04%2.88% BC US Corp. High Yield 0.57%-1.04%-8.30% Citi World Govt. ex-US 3.95%4.99%1.70% OTHER NAREIT Cmp (RealEstate) -0.25%-3.86%-4.59% Bloomberg Commodity Trust -1.63%-3.28%-26.50% CONTACT INFORMATION 505-224-9100 www.ulrichcg.com ECONOMY Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth was higher than originally reported, and monthly data showed a promising start to 2016 as wage growth accelerated and information inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target. The Commerce department said gross domestic product advanced at a 1% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, revising up its earlier estimate of 0.7%. Core inflation has risen faster than the Federal Reserve predicted in December, when it decided to raise the benchmark federal-funds rate for the first time in nearly a decade. Developments in the U.S. contrast sharply with economic data and monetary policy in other advanced economies. Policy makers in Europe and Japan have been pushing interest rates down to negative levels and buying assets in a bid to fuel growth and combat weak inflation. ECONOMY Fourth-quarter 2015 GDP growth was higher than originally reported, and monthly data showed a promising start to 2016 as wage growth accelerated and information inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target. The Commerce department said gross domestic product advanced at a 1% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter, revising up its earlier estimate of 0.7%. Core inflation has risen faster than the Federal Reserve predicted in December, when it decided to raise the benchmark federal-funds rate for the first time in nearly a decade. Developments in the U.S. contrast sharply with economic data and monetary policy in other advanced economies. Policy makers in Europe and Japan have been pushing interest rates down to negative levels and buying assets in a bid to fuel growth and combat weak inflation. CHART OF THE MONTH Inflation-adjusted U.S. GDP Annualized quarterly change Source: Commerce Department
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Market Review Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation. The price of equity securities may rise, or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company’s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Investments in commodities may have greater volatility than investments in traditional securities, particularly if the instruments involve leverage. Equity Style Returns are based on the Russell Indices. Large cap are represented by the Russell 1000 ® Value Index, Russell 1000 ® Index (Core), and Russell 1000 ® Growth Index; mid cap are represented by the Russell Midcap ® Value Index, Russell Midcap ® Index (Core), and Russell Midcap ® Growth Index; small cap are represented by the Russell 2000 ® Value Index, Russell 2000 ® Index (Core), and Russell 2000 ® Growth Index. Russell Investment Group is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell ® is a trademark of the Russell Investment Group. © Ulrich Consulting Group, LLC
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