1. Hung parliaments and the challenges for Westminster and Whitehall MAKING MINORITY GOVERNMENT WORK 1 Report Launch @ Institute for Government 3 December 2009 Robert Hazell, Akash Paun, Mark Chalmers, Ben Yong

2. About the Project Constitution Unit and Institute for Government partnership “The unwritten rules of the game in British politics are deeply intertwined with the assumption that one party will win a clear majority and rule the roost. If that assumption is no longer valid, a very large proportion of the normal conventions of government would come under challenge.” David Butler, Governing without a majority, 1986 3 stages of government life cycle 4 case studies Lessons for 6 different actors 2

3. A norm of single party majority rule? 3 Coalition Majority Labour National Government Conservative Liberal Unionist 1890-991900-091910-191920-291930-391940-491950-591960-691970-791980-891990-992000-09 Minority

4. 4 2005 General Election One seat per 44,000 votes One seat per 27,000 votes One seat per 97,000 votes Disproportional representation

5. A Conservative victory would need a large swing in comparison with recent history 5 2005 +3.1 2010 +6.9 What the Conservatives need for a majority in 2010

6. 6 Sources: www.ukpollingreport.co.uk and www.electoralcalculus.co.ukwww.ukpollingreport.co.ukwww.electoralcalculus.co.uk Labour lead Conservative lead 2005 result = 42 seat Labour majority Current opinion poll average = c.30 seat Tory majority ‘No man’s land’ Vote Share At the same point in 1996 And the eventual result in 1997 There is a wide ‘no man’s land’ between Conservative and Labour majorities

7. A longer government formation process 7 Source: de Winter, L. (1995), ‘The role of parliament in government formation and resignation’, in Doring, H. (ed), Parliaments and Majority Rule in Western Europe, p.118.

8. A range of possible government forms Majority Minority Single- Party Multi- Party Agreement to disagree Ministers outside Cabinet Contract parliamentarism Confidence agreements Pre-1996 1979-2009 1979-2004 1974, ‘76-79, ‘97e.g. 2004-092007-2009 1998-9, 2008-9 1999-2007 e.g. 1940-451996-1998 1999-2008

9. “Coalition (majority) rule makes life difficult within government but simple in parliament. Minority government is the other way around.” “Minority government is a challenge for the opposition as much as a challenge for government.” “The absence of a government majority does not imply the existence of an opposition majority.” “A hung parliament will lead to multi-party governance, even if single party government continues.” 9 Minority and coalition government: Key tradeoffs

10. CANADA Canada’s Dysfunctional Minority Parliament

11. Context A Westminster-type Parliament with 308 MPs elected by the first past the post electoral system. Queen is Head of State, with powers exercised by Governor General on advice of the PM. 3 national parties: Conservatives, Liberals, NDP 1 separatist party: Bloc Québecois

12. History 10 minority governments in 20th century, 3 this century Pure minority government is preferred Many past minority governments viewed favourably, e.g. Lester Pearson Current parliament defined by brinksmanship, continuous electioneering, hyperpoliticisation. September ’08 dissolution; December ’08 prorogation

13. Three periods of minority governments 13

14. Key Lessons Politicians need to make parliament work, avoid calling on the Monarch. Be consultative and cooperative not unilateral. Civil service must be prepared for possibility of coalition and other forms of multiparty governance. Media plays role in educating and shaping attitudes

15. NEW ZEALAND New Zealand’s Experience of Multi-Party Governance

16. In Brief Minority government can work, provided there is: 1.Preparation 2.Careful and sensible management 3.Adaptability and flexibility

17. NZ Governments, 1996-2009 by regular Cabinet participation

18. Key problems Government formation Multiparty management

19. Government Formation Crown: pre-emptive diplomacy Civil service: set out rules in advance Political parties: flexibility; multi-party arrangements

20. NZ Governments, 1996-2009 by executive responsibilities

21. Management Multiparty management: Sensible and careful management The unity-distinctiveness dilemma: Be flexible

22. SCOTLAND Learning from Scotland’s Parliament of Minorities 22

23. Scottish constitutional context Part of the Westminster family: the same fundamental relationship between government and parliament, ministers and civil service, party leaders and backbenchers. A similar party system and media environment. But with significant differences.... An aspiration for ‘a new politics’ of power-sharing, inclusiveness and accountability. A proportional electoral system and multi-party politics. Fixed term parliaments Parliamentary procedures designed to strengthen the legislature, e.g. committees’ role in legislative process. 23

24. Three elections, three minority parliaments 24 Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats SNP Others

25. A decade of multi-party governance 25 Government formed within two weeks of each election, with some teething problems in 1999. 1999-2007, stable coalition majority government based on detailed ‘Partnership Agreement’ and collective responsibility. 2007 – SNP become the largest party for first time (by one seat). Despite narrowness of result, election viewed as SNP victory. SNP minority government formed, with limited Green support. First two and a half years of minority rule have seen a slowdown in legislation, plus frequent government defeats in Parliament. But only one government bill has been lost; most defeats have been on non-binding motions and legislative amendments. 2009 Budget was initially defeated, triggering talk of crisis, but this was resolved in a week, with concessions offered to the opposition.

26. Key lessons from Scotland 26 Formal coalition can be constraining, and may undermine the smaller party’s identity. A coalition majority government can dominate parliament like a single party administration at Westminster. Minority government increases uncertainty in parliament, but permits a clearer strategic vision and more flexibility. A minority government needs to manage expectations, downplay significance of defeats, build relationships with opposition parties, and be prepared to compromise (on policy, spending and agenda). But government is able to retain dominance of the legislative, budgetary and policy-making process. Minority rule can lead to (perceived) politicisation of the civil service. To critics, SNP is populist and unaccountable. To defenders, the current parliament represents grown-up, inclusive decision-making.

27. MAKING IT WORK Lessons for Westminster, Whitehall and the Crown 27

28. Lessons for Prime Minister and government Do not govern in a majoritarian way Accept likelihood of frequent parliamentary defeats Prepare media and public for these defeats, so not seen as issues of confidence Set out clear strategy and long term goals When advising the Crown, put aside party interest

29. Civil Service must be prepared For caretaker government, with clear caretaker convention To support negotiations between the parties For different possible combinations of minority and/or coalition government For relaxation of collective Cabinet responsibility, but not confidentiality To develop a clear set of rules to which all players subscribe

30. Lessons for Parliament Parliament cannot make policy, or force government to do anything against its will Implement Wright Committee proposals to relax government domination of the timetable Government legislation won’t diminish. But its passage will take longer, and it will be more heavily amended Budget still dominated by government. Opposition parties will negotiate changes, need expert support Contested procedural rulings, pressure on Speaker

31. Lessons for the opposition parties Lack of government majority does not mean there is an opposition majority Difficult to coordinate ‘the opposition’ against the government, or bring government down Minority government forces opposition parties to behave responsibly: they determine which measures pass Can influence government policy through bilateral deals Hold out for stronger research and policy support

32. Lessons for the Crown Mystique about government formation risks drawing Crown into controversy Need clear rules to explain it is not Monarch’s role to form a government, or facilitate negotiations Decision to form a government must be reached by politicians PM then advises who can command confidence Investiture vote to elect new PM would be more direct test of confidence than Queen’s Speech

33. Minority government can work if... The government does not seek to govern in a majoritarian way The civil service understands the rules of the new political game, and codifies them into a new rule book Parliament becomes a forum in which the government builds legislative coalitions with different parties on different issues The opposition parties are encouraged to behave responsibly, and supported in parliament to do so The media also understand the new political game, and do not depict minority government as nasty, disputatious and short

34. BACKUP SLIDES 34

35. ‘Westminster Model’ Single Party Majority Rule ‘Formal Partnership’ Coalition Majority Rule ‘Going it Alone’ Single Party Minority Rule ‘Best (or Worst) of Both Worlds’ Minority Coalition Rule Grey Area Four ideal types of government Majority Minority Single- Party Multi- Party

36. Single party majority rule as the norm? 36

37. Two party dominance has declined 37

38. Challenges for the executive 38 CoalitionMinority Preparation & scenario planningYY Support for government formation processYY Coalition management processesYN Reduced flexibilityYN Difficulties in strategic coordination / ‘joined up government’Y?N? Relaxation of collective responsibilityY?N Dealing with uncertainty – policies, spending, government survivalY?Y Expectations management and dealing with defeatsNY Contact with / monitoring of opposition and parliamentNY? Shift of emphasis away from legislationNY Search for external partners and public backingNY A stronger centre / core executiveY? Greater threat of politicisation of civil serviceN?Y? Be prepared for early electionN?Y Clarify constitutional rules (e.g. on dissolution, investiture)Y?Y