1. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Scott Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Atmospheric CO 2 Mauna Loa HI

2. U.S. 2013 National Climate Assessment of Oceans and Marine Resources Scott Doney (WHOI) Contributing Lead Author Andrew Rosenberg (UCS) Contributing Lead Author Michael Alexander (NOAA) Francisco Chavez (MBARI) Catherine Drew Harvell (Cornell) Gretchen Hofmann (UCSB) Michael Orbach (Duke) Mary Ruckelshaus (Stanford) http://www.globalchange.gov/ what-we-do/assessment Release date of draft for public comment mid-Jan. 2013

3. Technical Input to NCA Ocean Chapter NOAA Organized Technical Input Lead Authors Roger Griffis (NOAA) & Jennifer Howard (NOAA) http://www.globalchange.gov/what- we-do/assessment/nca- activities/695

4. Other Available Technical Inputs http://www.globalchange.gov/what-we- do/assessment/nca-activities/695

5. U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) -Area 1.7 times land area of continental U.S. -Encompass 11 different large marine ecosystems (LMEs) Griffis & Howard, Technical Input (2012)

6. Talk Outline -Climate Background warming sea-level rise Arctic sea-ice retreat rainfall & river discharge weather & events -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

7. Global Warming Trends IPCC 2007 Global Mean Temp. Anomalies Natural Forcing Only Natural & Human Forcing

8. Sea Surface Warming M. Alexander, NOAA

9. Ocean Warming & Sea Level Rise ~80% of excess heat in climate system is in the ocean Palmer et al. OceanObs’09 (2010) Ocean Heat Content Anomaly 1955 2005

10. Shrinking Arctic Sea-Ice National Snow & Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org

11. Projected Regional Climate Trends

12. Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming range & phenology shifts winners & losers mismatch hypothesis exacerbate other stressors uncertainties in projections -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

13. Satellite Ocean Color Response to Warming Behrenfeld et al., Nature (2006) Siegel et al., RSE (submitted) +Chl -SST N. temperate Stratified S. temperate tropics/subtropics (nutrient limited) temperate/polar (light & nutrient limited)

14. Steinacher et al. Biogeosciences 2010 21 st Century Trends in Biological Production

15. Northeast Shelf Warming (2011- 2012) Sea Surface Temperature Chlorophyll http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/eco sys/advisory/current/advisory.h tml

16. Shifting Fish Distributions Nye et al. MEPS 2010 Atlantic croaker – Hare et al. 2010 -Ranges shifting poleward and deeper -Abundance changes that vary fishery by fishery MABGOM MAB GOM

17. Regional Fisheries Impacts Griffis & Howard, Technical Input (2012)

18. Lagged Social- Ecological Responses to Climate Pinsky & Fogarty Climatic Change 2012 Landings Survey Red HakeSummer Flounder Lobster Yellowtail Flounder

19. Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

20. Fate of Anthropogenic CO 2 Emissions (2000-2009) LeQuere et al. Nature Geosciences 2009; Global Carbon Project 2011 1.1±0.7 Pg C y -1 + 7.7±0.5 Pg C y -1 Atmosphere 47% 4.1±0.1 Pg C y -1 Land 27 % 2.4 Pg C y -1 Oceans 26% 2.3±0.4 Pg C y -1

21. 2− [CO 3 ][CO 2 ]  100−150%  50% 2100 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 1800190020002100 50 40 30 20 10 0 300 240 180 120 60 0 pH μmol kg −1 Year pH CO 2(aq) CO 3 2−  30% acidity  16% [CO 3 ] 2000 2− Wolf-Gladrow et al. (1999) Ocean Acidification CO 2 + H 2 O H 2 CO 3 H + + CO 3 2- HCO 3 - H + + HCO 3 - CO 2 + CO 3 + H 2 O 2- 2HCO 3 - −− < > −−

22. Acidification along the U.S. East Coast Depth (m) Distance From Shore (km) Wang et al. L&O in press Aragonite Saturation State

23. Marine Life Susceptible to Ocean Acidification -Reduced shell formation -Habitat loss -Less available prey

24. Negative Impacts of CO 2 on Mollusks Anne Cohen & Dan McCorkle WHOI (2012) Ambient CO 2 (Vineyard Sound) High CO 2 (estuaries, future) Eastern Oyster Larvae 10 microns

25. Low CO 2 High CO 2 Riebesell et al. Nature (2000) Shell-forming Plankton

26. Potential Food Web Impacts Barrie Kovish Vicki Fabry Pacific Salmon Coccolithophores Pteropods V. Fabry Copepods ARCOD@ims.uaf.edu

27. Collapse of Pacific NW Oyster Hatcheries

28. Washington State Blue Ribbon Panel -Reduce emissions of CO 2 -Reduce local land-based contributions to ocean acidification -Adapt to & remediate impacts of ocean acidification -Monitor and investigate causes & effects of ocean acidification http://www.ecy.wa.gov/water/marine/o ceanacidification.html

29. Talk Outline -Climate Background -Biological Effects of Warming -Ocean Acidification -Other Human Factors

30. overfishing agriculture fossil fuels pollution deforestation coastal urbanization

31. Other Human Stressors on Oceans & Coasts Doney et al. Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2012