1. ANALYZING WHERE THE CANDIDATES STAND ON THE ISSUES International Affairs Ronald Sass, Fellow in Climate Change James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy

2. THE ISSUE IS NOT SCIENTIFIC The basic scientific development of climate change is essentially complete. 97% of all climate scientists agree that the climate is changing in a direction toward a warmer state and that man, mainly through the use of fossil fuels, is a major cause of that change. The majority of Americans, including Republicans, agree with the above statement. So, why do the candidates for the Presidency of the United States differ so widely in their position on climate change?

3. THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD. Globally, 2015 was the warmest year in recorded history.

4. HOW DOES THE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RECORD APPEAR?

5. THE ISSUE IS INTERNATIONAL The Conference of Parties (COP21) reaffirmed the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below 2° Celsius. Established binding commitments to make “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs), to regularly report their progress and to undergo international review. Committed all countries to submit new NDCs every five years. Obliged developed countries to support the efforts of developing countries with funds and technology transfer. Extended a mechanism to address “loss and damage” resulting from climate change without establishing a basis for liability and compensation. Signed by 195 countries and requires ratification by at least 55 countries accounting for at least 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions by 2020.

6. THE ISSUE IS ECONOMIC The vast majority of the world’s economy revolves around energy sources or manufacturing techniques that produce greenhouse gases and contribute to global warming. The American fossil fuel industry is immensely profitable, politically influential and a large component of the portfolios of many individuals and companies. The American free market approach to economy does not consider the external costs of climate change. Is it true that whatever we do with respect to climate change will adversely affect the economy and cost jobs?

7. THE ISSUE IS POLITICAL The Democratic candidates each have a plan that mainly follows the current Administration’s stance on climate change. The Republican candidates reflect the current Republican Congress commitment to oppose the incumbent Administration on all issues, including climate change. Both parties appear to be shifting to extreme positions, Bernie Sanders on the left for example and Ted Cruz on the right, leading to severe political polarization. Which political party best represents our future interests and those of our children?

8. Candidate’s Stand on Climate Change Is realIs man made Has called for action Will call for action Has made proposals Oppose Keystone XL Hillary ClintonYes Bernie SandersYes Jeb BushYes No Ben CarsonNo Chris ChristieYes No Ted CruzIs com- plicated No Carly FiorinaYes No Jim GilmoreYes No John KasichYes No Marco RubioYesNo Donald TrumpNo

10. Obama and Climate Change Department of Transportation and the EPA issued new fuel- economy standards for cars and light trucks. Twenty fold increased use of solar energy and tripled electricity produced by wind power since President Obama took office, Climate Action Plan to reduce the harmful effects of climate change introduced in 2013. Environmental Protection Agency to take steps to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. These proposed steps will reduce carbon pollution 30% from 2005 levels by 2030. In November of 2014, the President signed agreement with China to work together to reduce carbon pollution in the next 15 years.

11. Democrats: I have a plan Hillory Clinton: proposes a plan to install half a billion solar panels across the country by 2020 and expand renewable energy (including geothermal and hydro) sufficiently to produce 33 percent of U.S. electricity by 2027. Her Clean Energy Challenge, partnering with states, cities and communities, includes incentives, competitions, and investment in transmission and R&D. Clinton is opposed to Arctic drilling and supports extending the Production Tax Credit for renewables. Bernie Sanders: introduced climate change legislation to tax carbon emissions, and secured $3.2 billion in the economic stimulus package for greenhouse gas emission-reduction grants. Promotes a goal of 25 percent of electricity from renewables by 2025 and for the extension of the Production Tax Credit. He led the fight against the Keystone XL pipeline, and opposes fracking and Arctic drilling.

12. Republicans: Who needs a plan Jeb Bush: Energy plan focuses on drilling and nixing regulations on crude oil and natural gas exports. Increased emissions from these policies won’t be a problem, technology will take care of it if needed. Ben Carson: Says environmental science is beyond man’s control or understanding. “Climate change is going on but there is no reason to make it into a political issue. Chris Christie: believes manmade climate change is real but has not put forth any proposals to reduce emissions. Ted Cruz: The facts do not support climate change and the theory that human activity causes it is “pseudoscientific.” Government researchers are “cooking the books” on climate change to have a basis for controlling the economy and energy industry.

13. Marco Rubio: Believes climate change is happening, but not that it is caused by man. “And I do not believe that the laws that they [Democrats] propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy.” Donald Trump: Doesn’t believe in climate change and asserts that the changes we see are actually just weather, unaffected by human actions. He puts climate change low on the list of problems we need to address. In 2012, Trump said global warming is a hoax created by China to make U.S. manufacturing uncompetitive. John Kasich: Believes climate change is real and manmade and has called for action. He feels renewable energy should be a large part of our energy mix and encourages research into new technologies. He supports the approval of the Keystone XL pipeline and oil drilling on federal lands. Kasich opposes the EPA’s Clean Power Plan.

14. A Few of the Quotes I Have Trouble With. “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.” Donald Trump “I do not believe that human activity is causing these dramatic changes to our climate the way these scientists are portraying it. And I do not believe that the laws that they propose we pass will do anything about it, except it will destroy our economy.” Marco Rubio “For the people to say the science [on climate change] is decided on this is really arrogant, to be honest with you.” Jeb Bush “Today the global warming alarmists are the equivalent of the flat-earthers. You know it used to be: ‘It is accepted scientific wisdom the Earth is flat.’ And this heretic named Galileo was branded a denier.” Ted Cruz “The volcano that erupted over in Northern Europe [in 2010] actually poured more CO2 into the air in that single act of nature than all of humans have in something like the past 100 years.” Mike Huckabee

15. WHAT ABOUT THE VOTER? Climate change is by nature a very complex subject that combines a multitude of scientific disciplines into a biogeochemical system. The data are highly statistical and everybody knows you can prove anything by statistics. Our leaders and the media are sending out a large number of conflicting messages about climate change and what to do about it. Can we trust the voter will reach a reasonable decision based on what he/she hears and what he/she believes?

19. Partisan Differences Among Voters over the Environment, Helping the Poor, Global Warming and the Economy. Percent rating each a top priority * 75% and above support of political group. Survey January 15-19, 2014. Pew Research Center * * * * * * * * * * *

20. THANK YOU Too much thinking, too little action is a recipe for fecklessness. Yet too much action, too little thought are ingredients for a potential disaster. Larry Cuban