1. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of Mumbai’s public transport system Munish Kumar Chandel Assistant Professor Centre for Environmental Science and Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Bombay ITEA Conference, Oslo June 2015

2. Content  Mumbai and its transport system  Role of Buses in Mumbai’s Transport  Objective of the study  Methodology  Results  Conclusion

3. Mumbai Metropolitan Region Commercial capital of India Geographically, MMR is divided into three distinct entities: EntityArea (sq.km) Population (2011) Mumbai city (also known as Greater Mumbai) 60312,478,447 Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) 4,35520,748,395

4. Transportation system in Mumbai Sub-urban railway Metro Monorail Buses Taxis and auto-rickshaws

5. Modal share in MMR Mumbai city development plan,2005-06.

6. Transportation system in Mumbai Primary mode of public transport in Mumbai Central Railway and Western Railway Total sub-urban rail route network in MMR - 400 km (280 km of Central railways and 120 km of Western railway) Total 100 sub-urban stations (77 on Central railway and 23 on Western railway) Both railways carry a combination of sub-urban, long distance and freight traffic within MMR. Public Transport Mumbai Suburban Railway, Metro and Monorail Network Railways:

7. Transportation system in Mumbai Public Transport Bus: Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST) is the largest public bus transport service provider BEST operates services within Greater Mumbai, and to major destinations outside Greater Mumbai Total number of buses in service (2013-2014): 4,288 Non-AC buses: 3,799 (80% of the total fleet); AC buses: 412 Total buses on CNG - 2,985 (63.5% of the total fleet) Private buses also play a major role in intercity movement. Pickup and drop-off points by private buses are informally organised.

8. Transportation system in Mumbai Public Transport Metro rail: To provide a rail based mass transit connectivity within a convenient walking distance for each of the areas of Greater Mumbai, is proposed for a total length of 146 km with nine corridors. Project will provide East-West rail based connectivity to Central and Western suburbs. Phase I, Versova – Ghatkopar (10.8 kms) shall reduce journey time from 90 minutes to 21 minutes. Navi Mumbai metro will have six corridors of length 108.75 km. Navi Mumbai metro expected to begin operation by 2017.

9. Monorail Envisaged as a feeder network to mass transit system Implementation of about 20km stretch from Sant Gadge Maharaj Chowk (Jacob circle)-Wadala - Chembur with 18 stations as pilot project is under operation. Transportation system in Mumbai

10. Private Transport Source: TRANSFORM, 2008 Growth of private vehicles (in millions) in Greater Mumbai (1996 to 2005)

11. Vehicular growth choking road corridors. Transportation system in Mumbai Source:Mumbai city development plan,2005-06.

12. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of Mumbai’s public transport system

13. BEST Undertaking The transportation wing of Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport Undertaking (BEST) runs the public transport buses in Greater Mumbai since 1926. As of 2014, the BEST runs a total of 4288 number of buses ferrying around 4.8 million passengers over 365 routes, covering a distance of over 7 lakh kilometres daily. CNG and diesel are the fuels used. In 2014, 2970 of CNG buses and 1318 of diesel buses were running in MMR. Bus, along with train carry about 86% of the commuter trips in Mumbai.

14. Problems of public transportation in India 20% of the India’s CO 2 emissions from transport sector are from buses (Clean Air Asia, 2012) Expected to increase by two-three fold between 2008 to 2025 due to rapid growth of population (Fabian and Gota, 2009). 12% of the total diesel consumption in India was from buses in 2008-2009 (Government of India,2010). Variation in annual distance travelled by different buses in India was high (10000-23000 km/year).

15. Pollution from Mumbai’s Buses Buses are old. With average age of buses in 2014 as 8 years. (RTI,2015) Only 12 buses met the emission standards of EURO IV in 2010. There is no improvement in the fuel efficiency of BEST buses With partial deregulation in diesel prices in 2013, the per-kilometre cost increased

16. Total number of BEST Buses

17. Fuel consumption by BEST Undertaking

18. Fuel efficiency of BEST buses, Mumbai.

19. Use of alternative fuels and technologies in reducing GHG emissions Public transportation can play a major role by switching towards alternative clean fuels and technologies.

20. India 2012 (ppm)Location 50Major Cities 350Metropolitan Cities 500Nationwide Sulphur content levels in diesel in India (UNEP, 2012). Fuels  Diesel - remains an important fuel due to its high energy density.  CNG, natural gas with high methane content that is compressed to increase energy density.  Electric bus – Can draw energy from two sources of stored energy : a consumable fuel and a rechargeable energy storage system.  Biodiesel – produce through process called transesterification, which combines oils with alcohol and a catalyst to produce biodiesel.

21. Emission Reduction Technologies Diesel particulate filter (DPF) – can reduce particulate matter/soot and carbon black emissions. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) - is a means of converting NOx with the aid of a catalyst into diatomic nitrogen, N 2, and water, H 2 O. Urea is used as reductant. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) - works by recirculating a portion of an engine's exhaust gas back to the engine cylinders. Good NOx reduction technology. CNG Oxidation Catalysts (OCs) - used to reduce CO and HC and CH 4 emissions Three-way Catalysts (3WC)- The oxidation-reduction catalysts used to oxidize both CO and HC and reduce NOx.

22. Objective of the Study To find the impact of different emission control technologies and alternate fuels on greenhouse gas emissions from Mumbai’s public transportation buses. Goal of the study is to find less polluting alternative fuel and technology for Mumbai’s buses.

23. Methodology The emission estimation is for two most important GHG, CO 2 and NOx. The emission factor of various fuels and technologies bases buses calculated using following emission estimation equation: E = VKT x EF/1000000 Where, E is the emission (tonne/yr) from respective fuel and technology, VKT is the vehicle kilometre travelled annually EF represents the fuel and technology specific emission factor (gm/km).

24. Methodology Emissions under three scenarios: ScenarioParticulars Scenario 1Emission estimation from diesel and CNG buses running in 2013-2014. Scenario 2Replace present CNG buses by CNG+OC or CNG+3WC and Diesel buses by Diesel+DPF Scenario 3Replacement of total fleet by any of these fuels: B20, B100+SCR, B100+EGR or electric buses.

25. Emission factor for various fuels and technologies Fuel and TechnologyCO 2 (gm/km)NOx (gm/km) Compressed natural gas (CNG) 1341.8515.095 Diesel (D50)1175.5811.272 Diesel + Diesel particulate filter (D50+DPF) 1274.6310.909 CNG + Oxidation Catalyst (CNG+OC) 1181.499.862 CNG + Three way catalyst (CNG+3WC) 1158.552.305 B20138711.2 B100 + Selective Catalytic Reduction (B100+SCR) 1049.575.547 B100 + EGR1113.436.807 Source: Cooper et al., 2014

26. BEST buses details running in Mumbai ParticularsYear (2013-2014) Total number of diesel buses1318 Total number of CNG buses2970 Diesel consumption (litre)28658439 CNG consumption (Kg)67219208 Vehicle kilometre travelled by diesel buses (km) 81444293 Vehicle kilometre travelled by CNG buses (km) 177396403 Average age of bus as on 31st March 2014 (years) 7.55 Types of engine used for diesel buses India 2000, BS II,III,IV Types of engine used for CNG busesIndia 2000, BS II,III,IV Average speed of buses (Km/hr)15 Source: BEST, Undertaking

27. Results

28. CO 2 emissions from BEST buses Scenario 1&2

29. NOx emissions from BEST buses Scenario 1&2

30. CO 2 emissions from BEST buses Scenario 3

31. NOx emissions from BEST buses Scenario 3

32. Economics of Public transportation Public bus corporations are facing net financial losses and are relying on the government Of the various expenditure of a bus corporation fuel consumption is 30%. In 2009-2010, total combined losses of 34 bus corporation were more than 50.8 billion INR or US $1.01 billion (CIRT, 2010). As per BEST undertaking all the bus routes have stopped making profit since 2014. Losses are due to various factors, coming of Metro, incremental growth in fuel consumption, no sufficient lanes for buses, growth of car ownership, inefficient services etc. To balance the losses BEST has increased the fares in 2014.

33. Economics Any new technology will be invariable expensive and needs govt. support in form of subsidy. Most of BEST buses converted to CNG.With the estimated cost of 500 crore in 2007 (Jeetha,2007). Cost of running a diesel BEST single decker bus in Mumbai is Rs 45 per km as compared to Rs 70 per km for double decker bus (Ashok Leyland). Category of routes October 2014 October 2013 'A' class (profit-making) 02 'B' class (no-profit-no- loss) 39148 'C' class (loss-making) 472366 Financial performance of BEST bus routes

34. Cost of fuel per km FuelCost of fuelCost /Km (INR) Diesel BusesRs 55.57/ LitreINR19.6/km (Mumbai) Electric Buses Rs 5/ Units (1.2kWh/km) INR 6/km (Claimed by facilitator for Bangalore city e-bus) CNGRs 35.95/LireINR 13.6/km (Mumbai) BiodieselRs 28/Litre Rs 45/Litre (MoPNG) INR10/km INR16/km

35. Electric buses may cost up to 30-50% of the cost of a conventional diesel bus. Even if India replaces 5% of the buses with biodiesel it will save 2 million tons of diesel which is round 10000 – 15000 crore per annum. Economics

36. Conclusion Need to focus on public transportation of Mumbai For 2013-2014, the CO 2 emitted by BEST buses running in Mumbai were 0.33 million tonne, 71.3% of it were from CNG buses and remaining from diesel buses. If we replace CNG buses by CNG + 3WC and diesel buses with Diesel+DPF, the CO 2 emissions would be reduced by ~7% but NOx emissions would be reduced by significant 64%. All the biodiesel and electric buses would reduce NOx emissions by 19- 82%, maximum reduction with electrical buses. Although tailpipe CO 2 emissions would be reduced by 18-20%, however, considering the biogenic component, net CO 2 emissions would come down heavily from biodiesel buses.

37. Conclusion Even for electric bus, considering the electricity generation emissions, CO 2 emissions would be reduced by ~22%. The advanced technology buses would bring down the CO 2 and NOx emissions. The economics of these technologies also need to be considered. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle emission analysis could help the transport agency for better choice in selection of the fuel and technology.

38. Future Work Emission factors Life cycle analysis of emissions Life cycle cost analysis

39. Thank You

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