1. Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Ecological Essentials: Land, Water, Climate

2. Precarious Global Food Situation Decreasing margin between grain consumption and grain production Long-term trends will: –increase food demand –limit food production World Grain Production and Consumption, 1960-2011 Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig

3. Demand Growing, Supply Strained Demand Side Growing population People moving up the food chain Biofuels turning food into fuel Supply Side Eroding soils Depleting aquifers Plateauing grain yields Rising temperature Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig

4. From Surplus to Scarcity In the past, world had two safety cushions in case of harvest shortfall: –idled U.S. cropland –large stocks of grain Both safety cushions gone –U.S. abandoned cropland set aside programs –Grain harvests falling as demand is growing Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig World Grain Stocks as Days of Consumption, 1990-2012

5. Soil Erosion Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Overplowing, overgrazing, & deforestation make soil vulnerable to wind & water erosion Roughly 1/3 of world’s cropland is now losing topsoil faster than it can be re-formed Topsoil loss reduces productivity, eventually pushing farmers and herders off their land Some countries unable to feed themselves

6. Photo Credit: NASA Earth Observatory Dust Bowls Today Overgrazing in China and Mongolia is leading to continental dust storms that can reach US & merging of deserts. Population & grazing in African Sahel destroying soils Dust storms > loss of 2–3 billion tons of soil/year These dust bowls are unprecedented & growing.

7. Peak Water and Food Scarcity Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Worldwide 70% of water is used for agriculture 40% of the world grain harvest is grown on irrigated land

8. Coming Water Shortages Overpumping produces food bubbles that burst when water supplies dry up. Source: EPI 18 countries, 3.6 billion people

9. Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble Saudi Arabia was self- sufficient in wheat by irrigating the desert Will be 100% dependent on imported grain by 2016 First country to publicly project impact of aquifer depletion on food. Photo Credit: NASA Wheat Production in Saudi Arabia, 1995- 2011, with Projection to 2016

10. Potential for Conflict Approximate watershed outlines from EPI, overlaid on map from www.ammap.com Dam-building projects in Turkey restrict Tigris-Euphrates flow to Syria and Iraq Dams in China diminish Mekong flow available to Thailand, Viet Nam, and other downstream users U.S. water withdrawals from the Colorado River cause it to run dry before it reaches Mexico’s Gulf of California Foreign land acquisitions for farming in Ethiopia and Sudan will affect the availability of fresh Nile water to Egypt Competition for scarce water resources creates tension on regional and international scales, pitting cities against farmers and countries against each other.

11. The 11,000 year period of climate stability in which agriculture developed is over. Climate Disruption Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Average Global Temperature and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations, 1880-2012

12. Higher Temperatures, Lower Yields The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects earth’s average temperature will rise up to 6.4°C (11.5°F) by 2100. Current trajectory is outpacing projections. For every 1°C rise in temperature, yields of wheat, rice, and corn are expected to drop 10%. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / dra_schwartz

13. Melting Ice Threatens Food Security Glaciers feed rivers & produce irrigation water –Much of India & China depend upon glacial feed from Himalayas Melting glaciers raise sea level, threatening rice- growing river deltas. –Low-lying countries like Bangladesh most at risk. Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / jgareri

14. 2012 Drought & U.S. Corn

15. Toward a More Stable Food System Demand Side Stabilize population Eradicate poverty Reduce excessive meat consumption Eliminate biofuels mandates Supply Side Conserve soil Increase water productivity Fill the yield gap Stabilize climate Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Niko Vujevic

16. Supply Solutions Soil Conservation Measures Return highly erodible land to grass Terracing Plant tree shelterbelts Strip cropping No-till farming Photo Credit: USDA ARS Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand Photo Credit: USDA/Dave Clark No-till farming Terracing

17. Supply Solutions Water Conservation Measures Use more efficient irrigation techniques (e.g. drip irrigation) Use more water-efficient crops, such as wheat instead of rice Move down the food chain Price water to encourage efficiency Recycle water Photo Credit: USDA ARS Photo Credit: USDA/Pete Mortimer Drip Irrigation

18. Stabilize Climate Need to cut carbon emissions 80% worldwide Spur shift to clean energy economy by restructuring taxes to incorporate indirect costs of fossil fuels –Increase carbon taxes, reduce income taxes Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / pamspix

19. Redefining Security Historically, security has been defined mostly in military terms But today climate volatility, emerging water shortages, spreading hunger, and failing states are the new threats to survival Food security is not just in the hands of agricultural departments The challenge is to reorder fiscal priorities to match these new dangers Photo Credit: Yann Arthus-Bertrand