1. ANALYSING EXPLANATORY FACTORS FOR HOUSEHOLD LEVEL TRIP GENERATION MODELLING GEO 6166 | TERM PROJECT NIKHIL MENON SPRING 2014 A CASE STUDY OF THE NETHERLANDS 1

2. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND: ▫Trip generation –> first step in the conventional four – step transportation forecasting process. ▫Output: number of trips originating / destined from/ to a traffic analysis zone – usually residences (Household level). ▫Application: widely used for forecasting travel demand models. 2

3. INTRODUCTION PROBLEM STATEMENT ▫Analyzing the explanatory factors that govern trip generation at a household level. ▫Main factors could include  household structure and family size  income  vehicle ownership  availability of public transit system  residential location  presence or absence of children  number of working individuals in the household etc. 3

4. DATA SOURCE AND STUDY AREA NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL SURVEY OF THE NETHERLANDS (1998) ▫Modified for the purpose of the study THE NETHERLANDS: ▫Total area: 16,039 sq mi (1/4 th of Florida) ▫Population: 16,819,595 (2014 est) ▫Population density: 1050/ sq mi 4 Telegraph, 2012 Internations Wikipedia, 2014

5. MODEL VARIABLE INFORMATION 5

6. INTERACTION VARIABLES ▫Checking for the simultaneous influence of two variables on trip generation. ▫Income (Low, medium and high) is used as a source of interaction with the other independent variables. ▫Summary:  Dependent Variable: 1  Independent Variables: 31 (10+ 21 interaction terms) 6

7. MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION ANALYSIS 7 significance values in parentheses  = 0.05.

8. CONCLUSIONS KEY FINDINGS ▫Positive influence on trip generation induced by hhsize, nworker, ncar, income. ▫Negative influence on trip generation induced by nchild, resloc. POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS ▫Additional variables that enhance the model – (for eg.) presence or absence of a public transit system, roadway LoS, time of day, congestion tax etc. 8

9. DISCUSSION 9 LifeFoc