1. Chapter 8 Mass Media and Public Opinion Section 2 Measuring Public Opinion

2. Objectives: * Describe the challenges involved in measuring public opinion. * Explain why opinion polls are the best measure of public opinion. * Identify five steps in the polling process. * Understand the challenges of evaluating polls. * Recognize the limits on the impact of public opinion in a democracy.

3. Measuring Public Opinion * How many times have you heard the phrase: “According to a recent poll….” * Probably more than you can count, especially leading up an important election. * Polls are one of the most common means of gauging public opinion.

4. Measuring Public Opinion * The general shape of public opinion on an issue can be found through a variety of means. * examples: voting, lobbying, books, pamphlets * In American politics, it is vital to know what public opinion is on certain issues. * Elections, interest groups, the media, and personal contacts with the public all provide the means of measurement.

5. Measuring Public Opinion Elections > In a democracy, the voice of the people is suppose to express itself through the ballot box. < Election results are very often said to be indicators of public opinion. > The votes cast for the various candidates are regularly taken as evidence of the people’s approval or rejection of the stands taken by those candidates and their parties.

6. Measuring Public Opinion * A result of the elections is that the victor and his/her party claim to have received a Mandate – to carry out their campaign promises. * In reality, election results are seldom an accurate measure of public opinion. * Voters make choices in elections for any of several reasons * Very often, those choices have little or nothing to do with the candidates’ stands on public opinion.

7. Measuring Public Opinion * Interest Groups are private organizations whose members share a certain view and work to shape public policy. * These organizations are often called pressure groups. * These groups present their views through lobbyists. * It is hard to know how many people are part of this group and how strongly the people of this group feel about the issue.

8. Measuring Public Opinion The Media * The media play a huge part in public opinion. * We can say that the media is a “molder” or a “ mirror” of public opinion. Personal Contacts * Most public officials have frequent and wide- ranging contacts in many different forms with large numbers of people. * With these contacts, they try to read the minds of the public.

9. Measuring Public Opinion * Government officials have any number of contacts with the public * They encounter the public in their offices, in public meetings, at social gatherings, and other places.

10. Measuring Public Opinion Polls- The Best Measure * Public Opinion is best measured by public opinion polls – devices that attempt to collect information by asking people questions. * The more accurate the polls are based on scientific polling techniques. * Straw Polls > Most early polling efforts were of this method. < They were polls that sought to read the public’s mind simply by asking the same question to a large number of people.

11. Measuring Public Opinion > This technique is highly unreliable > It rests on the false assumption that a relatively large number of responses will provide a fairly accurate picture of the public’s views on a given question. > The problem is that nothing in the process ensures that those who respond will represent a reasonably accurate cross section of the total population. < This method emphasizes quantity rather than quality.

12. Measuring Public Opinion * Scientific Polling < Serious efforts to take the public’s pulse on a scientific basis date from the mid-1930s. > Such early groups that took these types of polls such as George Gallup and Elmo Roper. > They have developed really highly skilled ways to poll people and their opinion. < They tap the public’s preferences on everything from toothpaste to television shows.

13. Measuring Public Opinion The Polling Process * Scientific poll-taking is an extremely complex process. * Their efforts to discover and report public opinion. 1) Defining the Universe > The universe is a term that means the whole population that the polls aim to measure < The universe can be voters in Houston, TX, all Republicans in New England, or all Catholic women.

14. Measuring Public Opinion 2) Constructing a Sample > If you have a small sample to poll. The best way to get their input is to ask them. < If it is a big group to poll, you can’t ask everyone their opinion. > Pollsters must select a sample – a representative slice of the total universe. < Most professional pollsters draw a random sample – a probability sample. > They interview a certain number of randomly selected people who live in a certain area to poll.

15. Measuring Public Opinion > They usually interview some 1,500 people to represent the nation’s population < The law of probability says that the results of a poll will be accurate to within a small and predictable margin of error. > Some pollsters use the less complicated Quota Sample – a sample deliberately constructed to reflect several of the major characteristics of a given universe.

16. Measuring Public Opinion 3) Preparing Valid Questions < The way in which questions are worded is very important. > Wording can affect the reliability of any poll. > Should local taxes be reduced? Answer? < Should the city’s police force be increased to fight the rising tide of crime in our community? Answer > The answer is obvious and pollsters have to carefully word the questions so that they do not mislead people or shape people’s answers.

17. Measuring Public Opinion 4) Interviewing > How the pollsters communicate with the sample respondents can also affect the accuracy. < Most surveys are done by phone or mail. > They have to employ the same technique with all respondents for the sample to be accurate. < Pollsters appearance, tone in their voice, attitude, and dress affect the results of the poll.

18. Measuring Public Opinion 5) Analyzing and Reporting the Findings > Polls measure people’s attitudes. < To be of any real value, someone must analyze and report the results of that poll. > Pollsters use computers to find the results and to report their findings.

19. Measuring Public Opinion Evaluating Polls * Most major national polls are felt to be pretty accurate and reliable. * Scientific polls are the most useful tools there are for the difficult task of measuring public opinion.

20. Measuring Public Opinion Limits on the Impact of Public Opinion * Polls are not elections, nor are they substitutes for elections. * It is when faced with a ballot that voters must decide what is important and what is not. * Voters must be able to tell the difference between opinions and concrete information. * Democracy is more than a simple measurement of opinion. * Democracy is about making careful choices among leaders and their positions on the issues.