1. What research results are policy relevant? Annette Freibauer

2. Main Questions How will the C sink evolve (vulnerability)? –Projections of natural C sink –Projections of management effects –Projections of disturbance regimes What is the uncertainty of C sink measures due to interannual variability? What is the potential for climate change mitigation?

3. Vulnerability

4. C loss potential higher than C sink potential 101001000 Magnitude of vulnerability [PgC] highly unlikely unlikely likely very likely Permafrost Wetlands & Peatlands Terrestrial Biomass Soil Carbon Gruber et al. SCOPE

5. The future of the natural C sink Cramer et al., 2001 GCB

6. Windthrow, e.g. Tatra

7. Fate of C & N climate change land use mangement Peter Fleischer Disturbance

8. Interannual variability

9. Interannual variability in National Inventory Reports of Annex-I

10. Land use and Management

11. Projection of forest area in 2020 Global forest area (FAO) projected by continuous net trends Deforestation Afforestation Afforestation area exceeds deforestation Ergebnisse

12. 30 Projection of net CO 2 flux from change in forest area Average C stocks in biomass Cumulative afforestation area since 1990 with 10-30 year rotation Deforestation emissions systematically underestimated (net area change) Source Sink Land use change turns into net sink

13. EU-23 Forest management projections Source Sink Ergebnisse Forest sector: Biomass, soil, products North America: now old forests China, EU, Russia: now young forests CO 2 Flux [Tg CO 2 yr -1 ] Time

14. Mitigation in practice

15. Climate effects in spruce forestry C stocks in soil, biomass & products C stocks + substitution Mean C benefits over 150 years (t C/ha) 311 229 226 311 246 262 0 100 200 300 400 500 time255075100125 Years C stocks + cumulative C substitution, tC/ha Spruce for products Spruce for energy Spruce for sequestration Spruce for products Spruce for energy Spruce for sequestration Benefits by recycling Freibauer et al. subm.

16. C benefits with „leakage“ and downstream effects Freibauer et al. subm.