1. SC11: HPC Trends and Market Update
Addison Snell,
SC11: HPC Trends and Market Update
Actionable Market Intelligence for High Performance Computing
November 2011

2. Intersect360 Research
HPC market sizing, forecast, and technology trend analysis
Quarterly surveys of worldwide end users since 2007
Research reports published monthly on average
Feature articles in partner publications
Custom research, consulting, special studies
Weekly podcast with Michael Feldman, HPCwire
“Analyst Crossfire” at HPCC, ISC, SC conferences

3. HPC Total Market Model and Forecast
HPC Total Market Forecast ($000)
22% growth
Sales cycles come back in
Post-recession growth is high in except U.S. gov’t & acad.
Servers are the largest component, but storage fastest growing
Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011

4. HPTC vs. HPBC Definitions
High Performance Technical Computing (HPTC)
Applications in science and engineering
Top markets: academia, government labs, defense, manufacturing, bio/life science, oil/gas exploration
High Performance Business Computing (HPBC)
Applications include trading, pricing, risk management, logistics, fraud detection, online games, analytics, …
Top markets: financial services, ultrascale internet, online games, retail, entertainment

5. HPTC and HPBC Vertical Markets
HPTC Total Market (2010 rev., 70%) by Vertical
HPBC Total Market (2010 rev., 30%) by Vertical
25% Acad.
40% Comm.
35% Govt.
Financial analytics and DCC&D reclassified and restated as HPBC
HPBC is >95% commercial (exceptions: Fannie Mae, Federal Reserve Bank, …)
Financial services is only slightly smaller than total manufacturing

6. Different Software Approaches
Bio
CFD
Structures
(CAE)
Oil

7. HPC Total Market by Region
2010 HPC Total Market Revenue by Geography
Source: Intersect360 Research, 2011
North America was 54% in 2007; continuing to fall as percentage
U.S. government and academic markets restricted by current budgetary climate in Congress
Asia-Pacific has highest growth rate; EMEA has highest growth volume

8. 2010 HPC Server Revenue Share
IBM has been consistent #1
HP took over #2 with strong 2010
Sun falling off
SGI, Cray easy to track
Large percent of systems in our surveys identified as “in-house” or “generic”
Notable “others”: Appro, Bull, Fujitsu, Penguin, Sugon, Supermicro, T-Platforms, …

9. 10 Important HPC Trends in 2011
Accelerator adoption continues:
About two-thirds of users at least testing them (was 20% one year ago)
NVIDIA has 90% of current accelerator usage but will now face off against Intel MIC
Storage is fastest-growing product sector
Storage consolidation intensifies competition
Lustre roadmap stabilized for HPC
InfiniBand struggles to grow further as an HPTC system interconnect; needs new usage or markets

10. 10 Important HPC Trends in 2011
Biggest finance application is risk management
Facilities continues to increase share of budget
Memory usage growing with multi-core
Programming services spending buoyed by multi-core, accelerators, cloud
Cloud is only 3% of spending; mostly private cloud
Windows share flattened after years of growth
Big Data represents a major opportunity for HPC vendors to grow

11. Big Data Market Opportunities
“Big Data” is a rapidly growing set of applications touching large datacenters, SMBs, and research
Fueled by creation and availability of data
Organizations seek to bridge the gap between having better data and making better decisions
Application areas include: enterprise analytics, research analytics, real-time analytics, complex event processing, data mining, visualization …
Growth in these application areas creates a market opportunity for providers of HPC technologies

12. Intersect360 Research at SC11
BOFs/Panels:
Big Data webcast (Monday) and BOF (Tuesday)
BOF: Archiving in the Cloud (Wednesday)
Panel: The Path to Exascale (Wednesday)
Sponsored receptions:
Intersect360 Research reception (Monday afternoon)
Beowulf Bash (Monday night)
SC11 Analyst Crossfire (Friday 1:30-3:00)
Vendors: Pete Ungaro (Cray), Don Becker (NVIDIA)
Users: Earl Dodd (RMSC), Keith Gray (BP)

13. Actionable Market Intelligence for High Productivity Computing