1. Trends in Child Welfare David Finkelhor University of New Hampshire Title Child Abuse Council Symposium Campbell, CA

2. Overall Serious Violent Offending By Juveniles - 60% 1992-2011

3. Rape by Juveniles - 72% 1992-2011

4. Auto Theft by Juveniles -86% 1989-2011

5. ALL VIOLENT CRIME Down over 70% Since 1993

6. ALL VIOLENT CRIME

7. ALL VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIME

9. ALL VIOLENT CRIME

11. Source: National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System SEXUAL ABUSE 1990-2012 62% Decline (1992-2012) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 2.1% Increase (2011-2012)

12. *Source: FBI, Crime in the United States Reports 35% Decline 1992 - 2010 Forcible Rape Rape Victimization

13. SEXUAL ABUSE National Incidence Study (NIS) National Incidence Study (NIS) 1993-2005 (Endangerment Standard) *Change in rate not statistically significant

14. SEXUAL ASSAULT AGES 12-17 Note: Age 12 – 17 years; 3 year averages except 2008 which is a 2 year average. 2006 data excluded. Source; National Crime Victimization Survey 69% decline

15. SEXUAL ABUSE Minnesota Study Survey Note: respondents are 9 th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected Minnesota school districts. Source: Minnesota Student Survey, 1992-2013 53% Decline 40% Decline % Reporting Abuse

16. STATUTORY RAPE STATUTORY RAPE Percentage of Females, Ages 15-24, Whose First Sexual Intercourse Occurred at Age 15 or Younger with an Individual 3+ Years Older Sources: Sources: National Survey of Family Growth, analyzed by Child Trends 39% decline

17. Source: Sinozich & Langton (2014) Bureau Justice Statistics Rape and Sexual Assault of College Students and Nonstudents Students 18-24: down 52% Non-students 18-24: down 46%

18. Percentage Unwanted Sexual Experiences at UNH: 2012 Study and Changes Over Time: University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH

19. PHYSICAL ABUSE 1990-2012 54% Decline (1992-2012) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 4.9% Increase (2011-2012) Source: National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System

20. PHYSICAL ABUSE National Incidence Study (NIS) National Incidence Study (NIS) 1993-2005 (Endangerment Standard) *Change in rate not statistically significant

21. Juvenile Physical Abuse Trends in Minnesota (1992 - 2010) Note: respondents are 6 th, 9 th, and 12 th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected Minnesota school districts. 20% Decline % Reporting Abuse (lifetime) Source: Minnesota Student Survey, 1992-2010

22. Neglect Substantiation Rates: 1990-2012 14% Decline (1992-2012) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 2.9% Decline (2011-2012) Source: National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System

23. Intimate Partner Victimization 1994-2011 Source: National Crime Victimization Survey: Catalano, S. (2013). Intimate Partner Violence: Attributes of Victimization, 1993–2011. Washington, DC: US Bureau of Justice Statistics (NCJ243300). 70% decline 72% decline

24. Figure 9. NCVS Intimate Partner Violence 1992-2010 Rate per 1,000 females ages 12+ Source: National Crime Victimization Survey Data. IPV- NCVS 68% decline 1993-2010

25. - 33% 99-11

26. 97-11 down 45%

27. -14% -41%

28. SCHOOL VICTIMIZATION / VIOLENCE

29. SCHOOL VICTIMIZATION / FIGHTING

30. Victims of Hate Speech 50% Decline

31. SCHOOL VICTIMIZATION / THEFT

32. A student pushed, shoved or grabbed you on school property in the last 12 months Minnesota State Survey -19% -18% -7%

33. 33 ONLINE VICTIMIZATION

35. CHILD PORNOGRAPHY POSSESSION 2000-2009 up 186%

36. Teen Suicide Teen Suicide 1990 - 2014 Source: Source: Child Trends Databank 38% Decline 1990-2007 Rate per 100,000 Teens (15-19 yrs) 16% Increase 2007-2014

37. Percentage of High School Students Who Thought Seriously About Attempting Suicide 1991-2013 *Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Survey 52% Decline 1991 - 2009 10% Increase 2009 - 2013

38. Trends in Missing Children 1990-2012 Trends in Missing Children 1990-2012 *Source: state missing children’s clearinghouse data 43% Decline 1997-2012

39. Trends in Runaway, Kidnapped, and Family-Abducted Children 1990-2012 *Source: state missing children’s clearinghouse data

40. -31% 98-11

41. -40% 91-11 -53% 91-11

42. Monitoring the Future

43. Monitoring the Futurere

44. Monitoring the Future

45. Teenage Birth Rate 1990-2010 Rate per 1,000 Females (15-17 yrs old) Source: National Vital Statistics Reports: Sept. 25, 2001, Vol. 49 (10); June 6, 2002, Vol. 50 (10); Dec.17, 2003,Vol. 52 (10); Nov.23, 2004 Vol.53(9); Dec. 10, 2007, Vol. 56(7); Child Trends, Facts at a Glance, (April 2011): 2008 & 2009; CDC, NCHS Data Brief, No. 89 (April 2012): 2010 55% decline 1991-2010

46. Percentage of Students who had Sexual Intercourse with Four or More People During their Life Grades 9-12 *Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Survey 9% decline 1993-2011 18% decline 1991-2011 24% decline 1991-2011

47. * Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Survey The Percentage of 9 th Graders Who Have Ever Had Sexual Intercourse 1991-2013 23% Decline 1991 - 2013

48. *Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Survey Students in Grades 9 -12 Who Have Had Intercourse Within the Last Three Months Students in Grades 9 -12 Who Have Had Intercourse Within the Last Three Months 1991-2011 PA Sub 1990- 2005* 11% Decline 1995 - 2011

49. CDC Fact Sheet on HIV Related Risk among US High School Students http://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/newsroom/docs/2012/YRBS-Fact-Sheet- 072312-508.pdf

50. Sexually Active Teens Blacks: down 29% Others: stable

51. All races - 50% 92-12

52. NG Sub 1990-2005* National Mathematics Scores Among Students in Grade 8 *Source: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences

53. Radford, L Corral, S. Bradley, C. Fisher, H. & Collishaw, S (2011) Child Abuse and Neglect in the UK Today www.nspcc.org.uk/childstudywww.nspcc.org.uk/childstudy

54. Germany: Trend in Child Sexual Abuse Germany: Trend in Child Sexual Abuse in the Police Crime Statistics, 1994 to 2010 Sources: Sources: Stadler, L. & Bieneck, S. (2012)

55. Child Maltreatment in New Zealand OBSERVEDNEW ZEALAND ABUSE RATES: New arrivals OBSERVED NEW ZEALAND ABUSE RATES: New arrivals Abuse findings per year per 1000 children 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.9 2.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 1.1 0.8 2.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 Year Number of abuse per 1000 children Physical Abuse Emotional Abuse Neglect Sexual Abuse Note: Unadjusted rates may reflect increased screening rather than changes to the true underlying rate of abuse in NZ Unadjusted rates may reflect increased screening rather than changes to the true underlying rate of abuse in NZ -53% -39% -18% +164% Difference from 1997 (ten years)

56. CountryBoys 1993/94 % 1997/98 % 2001/02 % 2005/06 % % Change Rel. Girls 1993/94 % 1997/98 % 2001/02 % 2005/06 % % Change Rel. Hungary20.818.05.76.316.814.56.46.7 Denmark25.726.611.48.323.424.611.17.8 Czech Republic 19.015.36.86.31913.25.54.8 Belgium (Flemish) 28.123.013.89.419.519.310.18.3 France34.117.813.413.935.016.512.913.3 Russia36.825.618.517.240.123.816.815.7 Germany31.331.615.214.920.326.211.112.9 Finland18.813.110.49.112.59.68.06.9 Belgium (French) 40.133.119.822.132.621.611.511.9 Greenland41.035.722.123.039.434.926.524.9 Norway16.915.812.09.712.610.99.96.9 Switzerland 22.416.213.7 19.811.710.5 Israel28.824.320.017.817.314.910.7 Poland17.715.312.411.411.612.68.07.3 Lithuania41.742.036.428.039.538.432.326.5 Portugal 24.524.316.5 13.513.412.6 Sweden6.86.45.44.66.05.24.13.5 USA 16.314.811.9 11.210.410.9 Estonia31.125.621.723.923.321.615.719.2 Scotland11.09.68.49.310.29.79.19.5 Latvia27.430.623.723.424.228.116.219.3 Ireland 11.110.210.0 7.66.57.3 Wales12.3 9.311.111.411.59.711.6 Austria21.520.219.519.614.7 13.512.1 Canada15.817.116.415.211.512.214.413.1 England 9.414.410.8 7.311.68.7 Greece 12.69.323.0 8.26.722.9 International Trends in Chronic Bullying Victimization * P <0.05. based on inflated Confidence Intervals by 1.4 to account for design effect

58. INTERNATIONAL TRENDS

60. Summary Conclusions Many forms of delinquency, maltreatment, self- harm, risk-taking are down since 1990s Not reversed by recession of 2008 No large obvious differential by region, race Some international parallels

61. Weaker Explanations Weaker Explanations Economic factors

64. Questionable Explanations Questionable Explanations Economic factors Family stability

67. Weaker Explanations Weaker Explanations Crack cocaine epidemic abatement Gun control Incarceration Megan’s laws, sex offender registries, residency restrictions Abortion legalization, fewer unwanted children

68. Explanations worth more study Explanations worth more study More effective prevention and intervention Psychopharmacology

73. Explanations worth more study Explanations worth more study More effective prevention and intervention Psychopharmacology Medicaid expansion

75. Explanations worth more study Explanations worth more study More effective prevention and intervention Psychopharmacology Medicaid expansion Troop surge Aggressive policing Technology and surveillance Lead removal Changing norms and awareness Immigration

76. Why is Improvement Controversial?

77. Decline? I don’t see it.

78. Will policy makers lose interest?

79. Implications Cheer up (controversial) Figure out what is working Frame advocacy in terms of successes Be cautious about what we abandon

80. Strategies for Panics and Fads Make facts available Address common misinterpretations Avoid impulse to pander Typologies Build ties with sober journalists and practitioners Judicious use of “data cop” persona

81. 2016 International Family Violence and Child Victimization Research Conference July 10-12, Portsmouth, NH https://cola.unh.edu/frl/call-abstracts https://cola.unh.edu/frl/call-abstracts