1. Global Observation of Forest and Land Cover Dynamics REDD sourcebook development: background, status, next steps Martin Herold GOFC-GOLD Land Cover Office, FSU Jena, Germany On behalf of working group: F. Achard, S. Brown, R. DeFries, G. Grassi, D. Mollicone, D. Pandey, C. Souza More information: http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/redd

2. REDD and implementation Starting REDD implementation: –National carbon accounting capacities –National REDD implementation strategy and activities Tools for estimating, accounting, reporting on REDD: –IPCC Good Practice Guidelines and Guidance –Stronger role for satellite remote sensing –Dedicated research and case studies 2005: Establishment of GOFC-GOLD REDD working group –Promote satellite monitoring as objective and efficient approach in developing countries –Forest changes can be monitored with confidence for assessing and comparing historical and future rates of deforestation –Consensus technical guidance are in development (REDD sourcebook)

3. Ensure contribution through participation 2005 GOFC-GOLD working group est. COP11 Montreal GTOS submission I Subm. of view by parties I 1 st GOFC-GOLD workshop ED/GOFC SBSTA side event SBSTA 24 1 st SBSTA workshop GTOS/GOFC report COP12 Nairobi ESA/GOFC Side event + booth Subm. of view by parties II 2 nd SBSTA workshop SBSTA 26 2 nd GOFC-GOLD workshop ESA/GOFC- GOLD side event GTOS submission II COP13 Bali 1. REDD Source- book draft TNC/WINR/ GOFC-GOLD side event 2006 20072008 2009 Subm. of view by parties III + IV GTOS submission III SBSTA 28 GTOS/GOFC -GOLD side event 3 rd GOFC-GOLD workshop COP14 Poznan 3 rd SBSTA workshop SBSTA 30 COP15 Copenhagen

4. Sourcebook cover http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/redd

5. Sourcebook rationale 1.Consensus perspective from earth observation & carbon measurement and accounting experts:  1. draft (Dec. 07): 14 authors from 11 organizations  GOFC-GOLD as independent platform to formulate scientific and technical consensus  User-friendly synthesis of technical procedures 2.Bali status of negotiations and UNFCCC approved methodologies and definitions

6. Sourcebook objectives 1.to provide transparent methods that are designed to produce estimates of changes in forest area and carbon stocks from deforestation and degradation  in a format that is user-friendly 2.to complement the IPCC GPG-LULUCF (2003) and IPCC Guidelines-AFOLU (2006) by providing additional explanation, clarification and enhanced methodologies for obtaining and analyzing key data 3.to support REDD early actions and readiness mechanisms on national level

7. Gross carbon emissions (concept) Gross deforestation Gross degradation Gross carbon emissions A loss = Area of deforestation (ha) C loss = Carbon emission from deforestation (t/ha) for forest types i … m A dgr = Area affected by degradation (ha) C dgr = Carbon emission from degradation (t/ha) for degrad. types j … n Area change is most dynamic: needs to be observed from satellite !

8. Foundations of the sourcebook 1.Historical reference can be done consistently from 1990s onwards:  Account for carbon emission in forest areas on a national basis  As minimum use 1990/2000/2005 Landsat for activity data  TIER 1 (default data) available for estimates of carbon stocks (to be treated conservatively) 2.Global applicability; national conditions may require use of different data sources, methods, and capacity building 3.Measurement and monitoring system should be simple and provide conservative estimates

9. Sourcebook format Chapter 1 and 2: Introduction and definitions

10. Sourcebook format Table of Content (current) 1 Purpose and Scope of the Sourcebook 2 Issues and Challenges 3 Guidance on Monitoring of Gross Changes in Forest Area Monitoring of Gross Deforestation Monitoring of Forest Degradation 4 Estimation of Carbon Stocks Overview of carbon stocks, and issues related to C stocks Which Tier Should be Used? Stratification by Carbon Stocks Estimation of Carbon Stocks of Forests Undergoing Change Uncertainty 5 Methods for estimating CO2 Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Linkage to 2006 IPCC Guidelines Organization of this Chapter Fundamental Carbon Estimating Issues Estimation of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Estimation of uncertainties 6 Guidance on Reporting Issues and challenges in reporting Overview of reporting principles and procedures What are the major challenges for developing countries? The conservativeness approach

11. Availability of historical Landsat data as key source of fine-scale global land cover change observations (left, areas covered shown in red). NASA and USGS are currently compiling the next global mosaic for 2005 known as the mid-decadal global Landsat survey – a truly global effort integrating different satellite images from different Landsat sources and other sensors where needed (Source: NASA).

12.  Satellite monitoring: National examples from Brazil, India and several national REDD case studies  Starting point to develop more detailed monitoring system:  Motivation to use more detailed data than 1990-00-05  Identify hot spots of forest loss  Stratified sampling to estimate area change in future or for monitoring degradation  Establish or enhance national capacities  Develop understanding of historical (spatial) processes  Remote sensing data output to guide further field work related to carbon accounting (i.e. stratification) Monitoring deforestation at national scale

13. Change in forest areas remaining as forest (degradation)  Degradation results in loss of carbon stocks:  Less than for deforestation; cumulative effects can result in significant carbon emission  Specify activity/processes that cause carbon stocks to degrade can help formulate appropriate detection methods:  Slash and burn, (Selective) Logging, Fuelwood extract, Grazing …  Regional variations and different level of carbon emissions  Require different monitoring options and detection indicators  More severe degradation (area/intensity) usually result in more distinct indicators suitable for monitoring  Three options for observations: 1.Direct remote sensing approaches 2.Indirect remote sensing approaches 3.Inventory based approaches (field surveys)

14. Accuracy assessment  Independent accuracy assessment using sample of higher quality data/estimates as integral part any monitoring system to link to crediting system  Uncertainties should be quantified and reduced as far as practicable  Remote sensing approach:  Approaches & standards exist for land cover map assessment  Accuracy assessment of the area of land cover change  No uniform methods  Principle of conservativeness:  estimates (reduction of emissions) should not be overestimated  assumes reward for more robust and accurate monitoring system  motivation to complete uncertainty assessment and decrease error

15. Carbon stock change from deforestation/degradation Tiers (C pool change) 1. IPCC default values:  biomass in forest types by region and ecol. stratification, carbon fraction etc. 2. Country specific data:  Inventories (date, focus)  Ecological monitoring plots  Project studies/field samples 3. Full inventory of C stocks:  Comprehensive assessment  Consider different carbon pools and assessment for all associated changes Principle of conservativeness: When accuracy and precision cannot be achieved, REDD emission estimates should be underestimated REDD Simple & conservative starting point Motivation to improve monitoring system over time Accurate & established emissions monitoring Red. Em. Uncertainty Carbon Credits Potential

16. Sourcebook status 1.Current draft presented in Bali for open review:  www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/redd (Registration required) 2.Starting point for discussing and defining an appropriate monitoring framework, and to support early actions 3.Revision is ongoing:  Address comments and feedback received  Add and update sections (national inventories, fire, evolving technologies, soil carbon, accuracy assessment) 4.Further methods and technical details may be specified and added with evolving negotiations and decisions 5.Next side event anticipated for June 2008 at SBSTA 28 6.Activities to liaise with IPCC GPG developments 7.Next GOFC-GOLD workshop: 13/14. Oct., Jena, Germany

17. Concluding remarks 1.Building a national carbon accounting for REDD system is a process that can start now: Assessment of existing capacities and data Methods and guidance exist: IPCC guidelines and sourcebook Start conservative with motivation to reduce uncertainties over time 2.Build databases and understanding of historical deforestation and strengthen UNFCCC negotiating position 3.Stimulate national REDD implementation strategy and activities

18. Acknowledgement Authors Frederic Achard, Barbara Braatz, Sandra Brown, Ivan Csiszar, Sandro Federici, Ruth De Fries, Giacomo Grassi, Nancy Harris, Martin Herold, Danilo Mollicone, Devendra Pandey, Tim Pearson, David Shoch, Carlos Souza Jr. Support for GOFC-GOLD REDD working group and Sourcebook preparation:

19. Web resources GOFC-GOLD REDD sourcebook: –http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/redd Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS): –http://www.fao.org/gtos/ GOFC-GOLD: –http://www.fao.org/gtos/gofc-gold/ GOFC-GOLD land cover project office: –http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/ EO and reducing emissions from deforestation: –http://www.gofc-gold.uni-jena.de/sites/deforest.php