1. Political Science 30: The Grammar of Hypotheses Interested in interning with San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio? If so, contact Ingrid at izurlo@sandiego.gov

2. Logistics II: The Revenge Mac users may rent IBM SPSS Statistics Base Gradpack 19 for Mac for $40.99 for six months from http://e5.onthehub.com/WebStore/ProductSearchOfferingList.aspx?ws=49c547ba-f56d-dd11- bb6c-0030485a6b08&vsro=8&srch=statistics+base&utm_source=LandingPage-SPSS- Statistics-Base-19&utm_medium=LandingPage&utm_campaign=SPSS Week 3 Sections (January 19-21) will be held at their usual times, but in the Solis Hall 105 Computer lab, so that your TAs can teach you SPSS. The readings that are not in the two Pollock textbooks can be accessed at http://reserves.ucsd.edu/eres/coursepage.aspx?cid=1 6897&page=docs# http://reserves.ucsd.edu/eres/coursepage.aspx?cid=1 6897&page=docs#

3. Lecture Outline How to spot a theory and a hypothesis. The grammar of a hypothesis Independent variables The dependent variable Values that variables take on Intervening variables Confounding variables

4. How to spot a theory and a hypothesis (definitions) A theory is a general statement about how the world works that specifies a causal mechanism. A hypothesis derived from this theory makes a specific prediction that can be empirically verified. It predicts that one or more causal factors will produce a single effect.

5. How to spot a theory and a hypothesis (for instance) My theory is that people will be happy with their political system whenever their basic needs are fulfilled. What are some testable hypotheses that spring forth from this theory?

6. The grammar of a hypothesis Multiple Independent Variable (IVs or Xs) IV #1 IV #2 IV #3 Just One Dependent Variable (DV or Y) DV

7. The grammar of a hypothesis “Countries where citizens are healthy or wealthy will be less likely to experience successful revolutions.” What are the independent and dependent variables?

8. The grammar of a hypothesis Independent variables: Wealth, measured by 1980 per capita GDP Health, measured by 1980 presence or absence of universal care system Dependent variable: Presence or absence of successful revolution since 1980 What values can these variables take on?

9. Variables and their Values You can think of any variable as a question: What is the average lifespan in a country? The potential values that the variable can take on are possible answers to that question: 45.9 years (Afghanistan) 71.1 years (The Bahamas) 50.2 years (Benin) 80.7 years (Japan)

10. Values that independent variables take on for different cases IV #1 Wealth. Per capita GDP takes on different values in different countries. Haiti $586 Cuba $3267 Spain $18,356 USA $39,678 IV #2 Health. Some countries have universal health care, some don’t. Haiti, No Cuba, Yes Spain, Yes USA, No

11. Values that the dependent variable takes on for different cases DV Revolution. Some countries had them since 1980, some haven’t. Haiti, Yes Cuba, No Spain, No USA, No

12. An Intervening Variable It is part of the causal path that links an independent variable to the dependent variable For this hypothesis, it could be the average citizen’s stake in the status quo, measured by how much private property the average citizen owns Wealth Stakes Revolution Health

13. A confounding variable A confound: causes changes in the dependent variable is correlated with one of the independent variables is “causally prior” to that independent variable. Chronologically or logically, it comes first. Wealth Prior Current Revolution HealthRevolution