1. International Politics Analytical Thinking Purpose Of The Course –Fishing Metaphor Catch A Fish, Give It To A Person, It Feeds Them For A Day Teach A Person To Fish, They Feed Themselves For Life –You Are Being “Taught To Fish” Not Just About Memorizing Others’ Facts & Arguments Develop Analytical Skills –Construct Theories –Derive Hypotheses –Prepare Tests Of Hypotheses Apply Them To Research And Projects http://www.sciencecartoonsplus.com/gallery.htm

2. Analytical Thinking: Applying Science –Science = “Knowledge” –Theory = “Connection Between Variables” –Differences Between Sciences Natural Science (Biology, Chemistry, Physics, Etc.) –Greater Control Over Subject Matter –Look For “Scientific Laws”: What ALWAYS Occurs –Example: Law Of Gravity Social Science (Psychology, Political Science, Sociology) –Less Control Over Subject Matter (Humans Hard To Test) –Look For Generalizations: What OFTEN Or USUALLY Occurs –Example: Is There A Connection Between Regime Type And The Presence Of Conflict Among The World’s Countries? http://www.aiwaz.net/Leonardo/vitruvianman/ International Politics Analytical Thinking

3. Science –Regime Type and Conflict Example »Does Regime Type ALWAYS Influence Conflict’s Presence? »Does Regime Type NEVER Influence Conflict’s Presence? »Does Regime Type GENERALLY Influence Conflict’s Presence? –Theories Deliberately Abstract –Why: Can Apply To As Many Situations As Possible –But….Too Vague To Adequately Test Can Apply To Many Forms Of Government (Authoritarian, Anocratic, Democratic) Can Apply To Many Forms Of Conflict (Violent, Nonviolent, Semiviolent) Can Apply To Foreign Policy, As Well As Domestic Policy International Politics Analytical Thinking

4. –Hypothesis Solution To Vague Theories Hypotheses Are More Specific, Testable Versions Of Theories Regime Type & The Presence of Conflict = Vague Theory Compare Democracies To Autocratic Countries To See Which Is More Likely To Attack Another Regime Type = A Testable Hypothesis International Politics Analytical Thinking http://www.sciencecartoonsplus.com/gallery.htm

5. Theories & Hypotheses –Connections Between Variables –Independent Variable: Causal Variable (I.V. = Influences The Change In Scientific Model) –Dependent Variable: Impacted Variable (D.V. = Whose Values Are Dependent Upon The Independent Variable’s Values – Was “Changed” By The Independent Variable) International Politics Analytical Thinking X (I.V.)  Y (D.V.) http://www.sciencecartoonsplus.com/gallery.htm

6. –Example Statement: The More Democratic A Country Is, The Less Likely It Will Fight An International Conflict Independent Variable: Level of Democracy In A Country Dependent Variable: The Presence Or Absence Of An International Conflict –Exercise: Develop A Theory, Derive A Hypothesis From This Theory. Tell Me What The Independent And Dependent Variables Are. International Politics Analytical Thinking http://www.cartoonstock.com/search.asp?x=a&keyword=Democracy&Category=Not+Selected&Boolean=Or&Artist=Not+Selected&submit=Search

7. International Politics Analytical Thinking Variables –Actual Student Answer On Exam: “The Independent Variable Is The Variable That Doesn’t Vary” (Note: This Amazing Answer Has Been Given SEVERAL TIMES!!!) –Variables MUST Vary (By Their Nature) –Right: Example of a Variable = Wrong (Not A Variable) = Regime TypeSaddam Hussein Govt. Level of DemocracyDemocracy Presence Of Conflict (Yes Or No)War Severity Of Conflict (High Or Low)Death Economic Development (More/Less) Rich Country Strength Of United Nations (Degree)The United Nations Types Of Presidential PoliciesGeorge W. Bush –Values Are The Various Positions A Variable May Take Ex: Regime Type = Variable; Values = Democracy, Non-Democracy

8. International Politics Analytical Thinking Theoretical Rationale: –WHY Does A Connection Exist Between The Independent And Dependent Variable? –Why Are Democracies Less Likely To Fight Each Other? Why Are Autocracies More Warlike? –Reasons Democracies Tend To Settle Internal Disputes Peacefully (Election, Negotiation, Courts) Democracies Believe In Justice, Fair Play, Tolerance Autocracies Believe In Force, Coercion, And Power Democracies Take A Long Time To Make A Decision Autocracies Can Act Quickly (1 Person Makes Decisions)

9. International Politics Analytical Thinking –Hypotheses Direction Of The Relationship –Positive: As The Independent Variable (X) “Increases,” The Dependent Variable (Y) Also “Increases” –Negative: As The Independent Variable (X) “Increases,” The Dependent Variable (Y) “Decreases” –Example »As X Increases (From 0 To 10 On A Scale) = “More Democratic,” Y = Presence Of International Conflict (0 = No Conflict, 1 = Conflict) »Positive Relationship: As A Country Is More Democratic, It Is More Likely To Experience International Conflict/As A Country Is Less Democratic, It Is Less Likely To Experience International Conflict »Negative Relationship: As A Country Is More Democratic, It Is Less Likely To Experience International Conflict/As A Country Is Less Democratic, It Is More Likely To Experience International Conflict »EXERCISE: FOR YOUR THEORY AND HYPOTHESIS, EXPLAIN WHETHER THIS RELATIONSHIP IS NEGATIVE OR POSITIVE, AND WHY. http://www.sciencecartoonsplus.com/gallery.htm x x y y + x x yy -

10. –Testing Hypotheses Research Design –Define Your Variables In Your Hypothesis (Operationalization) –Which Cases Will Be Analyzed »What Years Are Included In The Study? »Definition Of Conflict (Which Cases Are Included/Excluded?) »Definition Of Level Of Democracy Empirical Analysis –How Will The Test Be Conducted? »Count Cases? Compare Means (Averages)? »Correlation? Compare Observations & Expectations? »Uncover Historical Sources And Documents? Example: –Polity Measure Of Regime Type (Democracy, Anocracy, Autocracy) –Years: 1945-1991 –International Conflict: Herbert K. Tilemma’s Foreign Overt Military Intervention (FOMI) Dataset International Politics Analytical Thinking

11. –Operationalization Of Polity’s Regime Type Data International Politics Analytical Thinking Table 2. Power Concentration Measure from the Polity II Codebook Variable & Authority CodingScale Weight Regulation of Participation Regulated Restricted +2 +1 Regulation of Executive Recruitment Regulated +1 Competitiveness of Executive Recruitment Selection Election +1 Constraints on the Chief Executive None 2 (Intermediate Category) Slight to Moderate Limits +3 +2 +1 Monocratism Pure Individual Executive +1 Centralization Unitary State +2

12. –Testing Hypotheses Our Findings –Count And Compare Cases International Politics Analytical Thinking Exercise: What Did We Find? Was There Support For A Positive Or Negative Relationship? Table 5. The Regime Type of Foreign Overt Military Intervention participants, 1945-1991 DID AN INTERVENTION OCCUR? JOINTLY DEMOCRATIC DIRECTED DYADS Annual Observations (Column %) NOT JOINTLY DEMOCRATIC DIRECTED DYADS Annual Observations (Column %) Total NO11093 (99.9%)53736 (99.41%)64829 YES11 (0.099%)320 (0.59%)331 Total111045405665160  2 = 44.284, p <.0000Fisher’s Exact Test: The p-exact = 0.000000 Side Note: Here Are A Few Things To Consider: 1)How Frequent Is Conflict? Is This Different From What You “See” On Fox & CNN? 2)How Might The Years Of Study Have An Impact? What Is Important About 1945-1991?

13. International Politics Analytical Thinking Exercise: What Did We Find? Was There Support For A Positive Or Negative Relationship? Table 7. Interventions by Dyad (Regime Type of Initiators and Targets) Between 1945 and 1991 D = Demo- cracy A = Auto- cracy Do We Find Absolute Proof That There Is A Statistical Relationship Between Regime Type And Conflict? If Not, What Do We Learn? Do You See The Role Of Social Science At Work?

14. –Testing Hypotheses Our Findings –“Don’t Use The Term PROVE Or PROOF Unless You Actually Do So!” –We Found A Relationship That Holds Under Very Limited Circumstances. Must Eliminate Other Factors, Test Other Findings. –PROOF Is For The Math & Natural Science Folks….For Now. International Politics Analytical Thinking http://www.sciencecartoonsplus.com/gallery.htm

15. Benefits of Analytical Thinking –Makes The Scholar Simplify His Or Her Argument –Forces The Scholar To Specify The Argument What Do You Mean By …… What Is The Connection Between…… –Allows You To Speak A Common Language With Many Scholars From Many Disciplines –Learn A New Skill (Analytical Thinking) Think How To Think “Knowledge Is Good” (Animal House) Analytical Thinking Applies Knowledge –Cannot Learn ALL Facts –Figure Out Which Facts To Focus Upon International Politics Analytical Thinking

16. More Benefits of Analytical Thinking –Contribute To The Scientific Body Of Knowledge –Replicate, Or Rerun Prior Analyses, Often With New Methods & Tests –Service Learning: Take Analytical Thinking From The Classroom Apply Them In Service Of The Community http://home.earthlink.net/~mtnviews/just_astro.html http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/archives_roll/2003_01-03/tures_military/tures_military.html Example Of Student Servant Leadership, Helping The Broader Policy Community