1. The International Waters Science Conference 2012 Bangkok, Thailand ♦ 24 to 26 September 2012 Setting the Science-based Agenda for International Waters for the Next Decade Joseph Alcamo Chief Scientist, United Nations Environment Programme

2. 1.How exactly is science involved? How to strengthen the input of science to GEF International Waters? Three questions … 2. Are the problems getting solved? How can science help make GEF International Waters projects even more successful in solving problems? 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? How can GEF International Waters become even more relevant?

3. 1.How is science involved? The Pieces in the GEF International Waters Project Puzzle Revising SAP/NAP Implementation Feedback Loop GEF & non-GEF Science -Concepts -Data -Knowledge -Methods Idea Issues Concept IW Project Concept (PIF) Project Develop- ment Project Inception Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Strategic Action Programmes. National Action Plans Monitoring & Evaluation

4. 1.Introduce more formal scientific procedures  Guidelines for assessments; peer review process; scientific advice on project improvements; reviewing scientific content of PIFs (project info forms); PPGs (project documentation) 1.How is science involved? How to strengthen the input of science? 2. Regularly identify emerging issues  Set up a foresight process 4. Set up standing scientific task force for one or more themes (water bodies plus cross-cutting) 3. Intensify cooperation with the scientific community – Global Water System Project, Future Earth, International Hydrologic Programme, … The vehicle for organizing… scientific procedures; foresight process; regular meetings with IW management; cooperation with scientific community; supplement evaluation of projects with scientific recommendations; support GEF-STAP

5. GEF International Waters: Since 1990s: GEF invests $1.1 billion  leverages $4.7 billion Are the problems getting solved ? Are we spending our money in the right way? 2. Are the problems getting solved?

6. Slow but steady recovery of the Danube & Black Sea Measures on 49 high priority pollution sources Fewer algal blooms Increased fish catch But what are the numbers? The International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) 2. Are the problems getting solved? Evidence of progress in protecting transboundary waters Actions on depleted fisheries in South China Sea & Gulf of Thailand Plans for a regional initiative  integrated fisheries and habitat management areas (fisheries refugia) in Southeast Asia Guidelines for the establishment of fisheries refugia Agreed lists of threatened species How close to sustainability and when? 200m 1993

7. Are the problems getting solved? Are we spending our money in the right way? 2. Are the problems getting solved? How science can help: Monitoring & evaluation Help from science: Monitoring of implementation of measures Monitoring of the environment, e.g. water quality, fish production, …, baseline & temporal studies; indicators and targets Evaluation of progress (against environmental quality benchmarks) Strengthen TWAP Feedback to GEF – International Waters To what extent are transboundary waters improving? At what rate? Are Strategic Action Plans being implemented? Are they effective in restoring/protecting water resources?

8. 2. Are the problems getting solved? How science can help: Global/regional assessments What are the most affected transboundary waters? (strengthen TWAP) Where should we focus our attention? Now? Soon? Hot Spot Analysis River basins sensitive to climate change and pressure from increasing water withdrawals. Are the problems getting solved? Are we spending our money in the right way?

9. 2. Are the problems getting solved? How science can help: Global/regional assessments Help from science: “Hot spot analysis” Top down global/regional assessments (Strengthening TDAs) Prospective studies – Scenario analysis Computer modelling Remote sensing What are the most affected transboundary waters? (strengthen TWAP) Where should we focus our attention? Now? Soon? Are the problems getting solved? Are we spending our money in the right way?

10. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? The Rio+20 imperative The link with food security The link with the Green Economy The link with chemicals and waste

11. Pressure on marine and inland fisheries  Overfishing  Habitat contamination (water quality degradation, e.g. endocrine disruptors)  Habitat destruction  Climate change  Agricultural runoff + municipal wastewater  degrading water quality  coastal hypoxic “dead zones” Marine: 53% fully exploited; 31% depleted or overexploited (FAO) 405 coastal hypoxic “dead zones” (2008) 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? Food security & fisheries 10% of total calories but 16% animal protein 2.9 B people >15% animal protein in diet Fisheries: a food security issue: Undermining ecological foundation 35,40 man,cor

12. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? Food security & fisheries How much fish habitat is curtailed by “dead zones”? How much do nutrient loads need to be reduced to avert coastal hypoxic zones? How can science help? What exactly are “sustainable” fisheries? e.g. -Maximum sustainable yields? -Acceptable water quality? -How large do protected areas need to be? How dependent are developing countries on protein from inland fisheries? How degraded are inland fisheries? (Inland hypoxic zones?). What kind of ecological wastewater treatment and watershed management can help avert degradation? Link transboundary studies with food security

13. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? Chemicals & waste & water quality Land-based chemicals contaminating the marine environment: endocrine disrupting chemicals Pesticides (DDT), pharmaceuticals (antibiotics, tranquillizers), industrial chemicals (PCBs, dioxin) Presence in coastal zone e.g. found in European coastal environment : Seawater, sediments & suspended solids in Mediterranean, Baltic, North Sea. Marine invertebrates & vertebrates, molluscs, crustaceans, mussels, fishes. Impact - Interfere with functioning of endocrine system Impaired development Reproductive abnormalities How can science help? What is level of endocrine disrupting chemicals in the freshwater and marine environment of developing countries ? What are options for reducing the source of these chemicals?

14. 3. Are we addressing all the right issues? The Green Economy How Can Science Help ? What is value of ecosystem services provided by transboundary waters & what is value being lost? What is the potential for marine-based renewable energy ? How can the efficiency of the fishery industry be improved? What are the options for watershed, coastal and ocean governance to ensure a productive and sustainable transboundary waters? Profits  US$8 billion / year Household income  US$35 billion/year Contribution to global economic output  US$235 billion / year Employment, direct & indirect  170 million jobs World fisheries: key pillar of the Green Economy

15. How to strengthen the input of science to GEF - International Waters? Formalizing science procedures; foresight; standing committee … Summing up: Setting the science-based agenda in GEF International Waters Are the problems getting solved? How can science help make GEF International Waters projects even more successful in solving problems? Monitoring, evaluation, hot spot analysis, water quality and other assessments … Are we addressing all the right issues? How can GEF International Waters become even more relevant? Link with the post Rio+20 agenda … Food security, the Green Economy, …

16. The International Waters Science Conference 2012 Bangkok, Thailand ♦ 24 to 26 September 2012 Setting the Science-based Agenda for International Waters for the Next Decade Joseph Alcamo Chief Scientist, United Nations Environment Programme