1. ECONOMIC RESILIENCE PAUL A. LEWIN

2. CONCEPT OF RESILIENCE Resilience: a systems capacity to resist and recover from shock and maintain growth path or community goals  Closely related to stability  Static resistance to change vs. a process of maintaining desired trajectories  Relative measure  More or less resilient relative to a reference point

3. TWO WAYS OF RESILIENCE Hazard rate of a county to experience a downturn Probability of a county to recover from a downturn

4. RECESSION OUTCOMES

5. WHAT UNIT TO MEASURE RESILIENCE IN? What to measure? Employment Population Emp/Pop ratio Personal Income Per Capita Personal Income Average Wage Regional GDP What we tried Personal Income Per Capita Personal Income Average Wage Regional GDP

6. DOWNTURN & RECOVERY

7. THE GREAT RECESSION DECEMBER 2007-JUNE 2009

8. RECESSION 2005/06 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

9. RECESSION 2006/07 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

10. RECESSION 2007/08 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

11. RECESSION 2008/09 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

12. RECESSION 2009/10 -GDP Sick StatesHealth of States: GDP Growth

13. RECESSION 2010/11 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

14. RECESSION 2011/12 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

15. RECESSION 2012/13 -GDP Sick States Health of States: GDP Growth

16. DURATION OF THE RECESSION (YRS.)

17. PROBABILITY OF RECESSION

18. CAPITAL FRAMEWORK

19. COX PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL Hazard rate for the jth subject h(t|x j )=h 0 (t) exp(x j β x ) where: t is a nongegative random variable denoting the time to a failure event, x j is a vector of multiple predictors, and β x is a vector of regression coefficients. h 0 (t) baseline hazard

20. SURVIVAL FUNCTION: INCOME TimeBeg. TotalFailNet Lost Survivor FunctionStd. Error[95% Conf. Int.] 1314637800.880.010.870.89 2276742900.740.010.730.76 3233816700.690.010.670.71 4217124200.610.010.600.63 51929138400.170.010.160.19 654512400.130.010.120.15 74213000.120.010.110.14 83915400.110.010.100.12 93370 0.110.010.100.12

21. SURVIVOR FUNCTION- S(t)

22. CUMULATIVE HAZARD - H(t)

23. HAZARD FUNCTION – h(t)

24. METRO VS NONMETRO

25. EDUCATION OF PERSON 25+ No High School DiplomaBA’s degree or higher

26. RURAL VS. URBAN

27. B.A. DEGREE OR HIGHER Education of Workers

28. NO HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA Education of Workers

29. LABOR FORCE

30. POPULATION 65 YRS. AND OVER

31. AVERAGE WAGE

32. AGRICULTURE

33. HIGH TECH MANUFACTURING

34. PROPERTY VALUES

37. THE MODEL Y=AK a (uhL) 1-a Where:  Y = Regional output  A = Technological change  K = Capital  u = Proportion of total labor time spent working  h = Stock of human capital  L = Labor supply

38. PROBABILITY OF RECOVERY

39. SURVIVAL FUNCTION: INCOME TimeBeg. TotalFailNet Lost Survivor FunctionStd. Error[95% Conf. Int.] 128090541.00... 22755977300.650.010.630.66 31748418360.490.010.470.51 412941812390.420.010.400.44 5874179680.340.010.320.35 6627183380.240.010.220.26 7406531920.210.010.190.22 81610 0.210.010.190.22