1. www.jrc.ec.europa.eu © European Union, 2012 Sustainability of Cuban rice cultivation as affected by climate change Introduction Rice is one of the most important food crops in Cuban agriculture.. The demand for Cuban grown rice is steadily increasing as national policies calls for reduced imports. Rice production is expanding, and this trend is expected to continue, especially through decentralized private operations. Natural resource constraints (water, soil) are increasing, however, and this could be further exacerbated by climate change. The present case study is part of the EU funded project: BASAL (Bases Ambientales para la Sostenibilidad Alimentaria Local), which aims at providing tools for national and local decision making to support adaptation to climatic change. We used the Biophysical Model Application (BioMA) platform to study different rice production systems prevalent in Cuba and their long-term sustainability against one climate change scenario. Methods The Water Accounting Rice Model (WARM) of the Biophysical Model Application (BioMA) platform was used to conduct simulation experiments for rice production at Los Palacios municipality. A climate dataset from ECMWF (1989 - 2010 ) was used as a baseline to represent current conditions; and for future condition the SRES A1B scenario for 2050 using two models (Hadley-CM3 and NCAR). Crop specific parameters were calibrated using published research by scientists from the Cuban Rice Research Institute and National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, and historical weather records from Paso Real weather station provided by INSMET. Crop management follows local management regimes. Results The results suggest small yield increases if the CO2 effects are accounted for, while slight decline were found when not counting with CO2 fertilization effects. Accounting for CO2 fertilization and application of reduced water management regimes, results suggests that yields could be slightly increased or maintained. Crop cycle length shows a decrease in future scenarios ranging from 7-15 days less for short cycle varieties, and 8-29 days for medium cycle varieties. Concluding remarks Model results suggests that it is possible to maintain potential yield under future scenarios with controlled irrigation regimes, thus confirming local research results with experimental trials. The results presented are still preliminary, further investigation is required to support conclusions. Next steps The modelling framework will be further developed and applied in this participatory learning and action R&D initiative, to ensure that Cuba stakeholders are empowered to apply, maintain and further develop the system according to their own needs. The first steps comprise refined calibration and testing, gridded database development on soils, and weather, with more state of the art climate scenarios; assessment of more management options and training/capacity building sessions. Joysee M. Rodriguez Baide 1, Ransés José Vázquez Montenegro 2, Maurits van den Berg 1, Davide Fumagalli 1 1 European Commission. Joint Research Centre. Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit. Ispra, Italy 2 Center of Agricultural Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology, La Havana, Cuba. Maintaining or increasing productivity while conserving the natural resource base. Reducing food imports and increasing exports. Tackling the negative impacts of high input agriculture. Transforming agricultural systems from large scale, state managed monocultures to small scale, diverse and independently managed systems. Cuba’s agricultural policies attempt to achieve food security goals by: Research by the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) in Cuba demonstrates ongoing effects of climate change relevant to the agricultural sector: Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme meteorological events, decrease of rainfall during rainy season and increases during dry season, significant temperature increase, increase in frequency, length, intensity and geographic extent of drought. Imminent challenges to achieve food security goals Is one of the most important rice producing areas. Current rice production supplies 100% of municipality’s rice demand. Future rice demand projections indicate that land cultivated would have to increase by about 130% from 6,188 ha in 2011 to more than 14,292 by 2020. Over the same period yields would have to increase from 3.1 t/ha to 4.3 t/ha. Since 1999, water consumption for agriculture must comply with tight efficiency measures. Water supply for rice in the municipality may only increase by a maximum of 21% until 2020. Study Area: Los Palacios Municipality Los Palacios Crop management