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Lancaster Commercial & Industrial MARKET OVERVIEW February 10, 2016
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2016 Macro Economic Assumptions GDP (2015 Average for 3 Quarters) GDP (4th Quarter 2015 Estimated) Total GDP Consumer Price Index Unemployment Nationally State Locally 10-Year Treasury (12/31/15) Credit Environment Market Correction or Recession 2015 Actual 2.17%.70% 1.80%.70% January - December 5.7% to 5.0% 5.1% to 5.0% 4.7% to 3.4% 2.27% Very competitive, new development 2016 Forecast 1.75% to 2.00%.75% to 1.00% 5.0% 3.5% 2.25% to 2.50% Ample availability, competitive rates, tightening underwriting
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National Drivers International instability. US “Safe Harbor” attracting international investment real estate and treasuries. Data shows challenging environment for global growth. Cheap oil. 60K jobs lost in the US in 2015 Every $.01/gallon drop at pump increases consumer spending by $1B annually. Corporate profits at all-time high. Consumer confidence is highest since 2008. Tightening in labor markets, and increased wage pressure.
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National Real Estate Overview Apartments: Pricing may have peaked in some markets; strong demand for infill/mixed use developments. Industrial: Strongest demand from institutional lenders/investors; positive absorption of 52 million SF in 2015. Hotels: RevPAR growing at twice the rate of GDP; growth in supply expected to outpace growth in demand, diminishing the rate of future growth. CBD Office: Occupancy strongest in 24/7 gateway cities; rent growth 300 basis points over suburban rent growth; asset class at historically low cap rates. Suburban Office: Continues a slow, but accelerating, road to recovery.
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National Real Estate Overview Cap Rate Summary Range2015 AverageChange Apartments3.5%-8%5.35% Industrial 3%-7%5.48% Suburban Hotels 7%-10.5%7.15% Flex6.5%-9%7.15% CBD Office 3.5%-8%5.68% Suburban Office 4.25%-9%6.36% Neighborhood/Community Centers 4.5%-9.5% 6.38% With exception of multi-family in certain market, supply growth kept in check due to limited supply of construction financing. With the exception of retail, occupancy rates are greater then 20 year average for each asset class. Equity is abundant, looking for “Core” and “Core Plus” and “Value Added Opportunities.” Source of CAP Rates is Price Waterhouse Cooper
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Industrial Not Sexy But Very Attractive! Favored asset class of lenders/investors. Vacancy fell to 8.5% down 40 basis points. New development at 40 million SF Absorption was 52 million SF Effective rents increasing 2.9% on average. 5.4% on new product. Robust development pipeline for big box warehouse.
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Industrial Markets Drivers Here For The Long Haul Economy of Consumption. Consumption expenditure as a percent of GDP has increased from 60% in 1960 to 70% currently. Between 2010 and 2015, retail sales grew at average rate of 2.44%, GDP grew at average rate of 1.78%. Technology (e-commerce) has been a positive “disruptive force” for this asset class. Demand for “Final Mile” buildings has created a need for well positioned warehouse space ranging from 30,000 SF to 75,000 SF.
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Phase II - Expansion Phase IV - Recession Phase III - Hypersupply Phase I - Recovery 1 1 Industrial Real Estate Cycle Third Quarter 2015 11 7 National 2014 Lancaster 2015 6 5 National 2015 Source: Dividend Capital Research Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles 8 Philadelphia 2015
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Suburban Office Steady As We Go Continues slow, but accelerating recovery. Office employment at pre-recession levels. Vacancy fell 50 basis points to 15.7%. New completion 16 million SF. Absorption was 32 million SF. Effective rents grew by 3.5%, up.09% from 2014. Rents have grown for 21 consecutive quarters. Investors\developers\tenants focusing on 18/7 cities. Second least favorite asset class among lenders/investors.
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Office Drivers For 2016 And Beyond For 2016 And Beyond TAMI (technology, advertising, media, information) replacing FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) as major demand generators. Employers are focused on “increasing productivity” versus “decreasing cost”. Talent acquisition and retention are key drives to location and design. Suburban (“urban” infill markets) gaining favor with employees/employers. Affordable housing, main street retail, walkability, access to transportation. Hip, cool, open spaces…not just for start ups anymore. Tenants prefer a variety of open areas, private and semi-private areas.
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Phase II - Expansion Phase IV - Recession Phase III - Hypersupply Phase I - Recovery 1 1 Office Real Estate Cycle Third Quarter 2015 11 National 2014 6 3 Source: Dividend Capital Research Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles National 2015 Philadelphia 2015 Lancaster 2015
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2015 Homeownership Rate: Nationally: 63.7%; 70 bps decline Y-O-Y. Northeast: 61.6%; 30 bps decline Y-O-Y. National Average 1960 to 1999: 64.3%. National Average 2000 to 2015: 67.0%. Millennials: Where will they land?? 46% live in city, 9% want to move to suburbs today. 24% live in suburbs, 5% want to move to city today. Apartments Deja Vu Or New Paradigm? Sources: NMHC, MPF Research, ULI
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Multi-Family Cyclical Or Perpetual? Perfect Future? Suburban (“urban”) Infill. 20-30 minute drive to city. Mixed use, walkable to office/retail. Close to mass transit. Access to good school. Despite glut of new supply, national vacancy rate was lowest since 2001. Y-O-Y Effective Rent Growth, 5.6% nationally, 3.8% northeast.
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Phase II - Expansion Phase IV - Recession Phase III - Hypersupply Phase I - Recovery 1 1 Multi-Family Real Estate Cycle Third Quarter 2015 11 National 2014 6 Source: Dividend Capital Research Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles National 2015 Philadelphia 2015 Lancaster 2014 9
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Retail Shoppers Seek Experiences Over Stuff Grocery Anchored Centers – remain the preferred asset class. Rent Growth in 2015 – 2.7%, up from 2.0% in 2014. National Occupancy – all centers - up 80 basis points to 93.5%. Source-ICSC/NCREIF – [September 2014-September 2015] Limited development opportunities in 2016, as demand lags long-run averages.
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Retail Trends For 2016 And Beyond Retail is top performing asset class of all asset classes 2 of last 3 years. Tenant mix continues to evolve. Restaurants and entertainment are key. It’s all lifestyle oriented. Success at the ends of the barbell. “Value” and “luxury” segments perform well, stores catering to mass market continue to struggle. Bricks and mortar retailers and on-line retailers are converging on an omni-channel distribution platform. E-commerce share is just about 9%. Source-PWC / ULI - Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2016
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Phase II - Expansion Phase IV - Recession Phase III - Hypersupply Phase I - Recovery 1 1 Retail Real Estate Cycle Third Quarter 2015 11 National 2014 6 4 Source: Dividend Capital Research Cycle Monitor – Real Estate Market Cycles Philadelphia 2015 9 Lancaster 2015 National 2015
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Cap10-YearAll In LTVVacancyRateSpreadTreasuryRate Residential70-80%5-7%5-7%1.90-2.25%2.15%4.05-4.40% Industrial65-75%10-15%6.75-9%2-2.30% 2.15% 4.15-4.45% Office Suburban60-75%10-15%7.5-9% 2-2.30% 2.15% 4.15-4.45% Retail Anchored65-75%7-10%7-7.5%2-2.5% 2.15% 4.15-4.65% 2016 Underwriting Criteria for Investment-Grade Real Estate
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Research – Primary Research Secondary sources (CoStar, MLS, C&I Council) Industrial – Institutional-grade, for lease Over 10,000 SF in size Lancaster County market Office – Institutional-grade, for lease Over 5,000 SF in size Lancaster City, Manheim Township, East Hempfield, East Lampeter Retail – Statistics are provided by LCAR/C&I Council Owner occupied properties are excluded (e.g. Nordstrom and Urban Outfitters)
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Major Office Changes Class “A” performance impacted by McNeil Pharmaceutical downsizing in Greenfield. Class “B” had strong performance with large leases signed at Burle, Liberty Place and 53 West James Street. No new construction currently active. Moderate volume of activity – 22 buildings had activity.
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16-Year 2012201320142015Average Class “A” Space Absorption 40,010-146,368-12,320-10,44713,484 Vacancy 5.9%13.6%13.9%14.8% Amount Constructed000027,013 Available Supply 98,356 244,724257,044267,491 Class “B” Space Absorption 22,41410,3956,75386,396-2,333 Vacancy20.2%19.3%19.0%15.6% Amount Constructed009,70008,685 Available Supply513,538503,143506,090419,694 Business Center Absorption 2,56358,16514,59418,69013,673 Vacancy19.7%15.7%14.2%12.6% Amount Constructed000019,820 Available Supply240,404182,239167,645148,955 Lancaster Market Comparison 2012 – 2015
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Major Industrial Changes Gateway Business Park – Flex completed 105,432 SF – 60,000 SF available. 499 Running Pump Road – 45,000 SF leased. Two new owner occupied warehouses under construction in Mount Joy and East Hempfield. 165,000 SF speculative warehouse in Conewago under construction. Over 1,000,000 SF in proposed new construction being marketed. Strong demand in 2015 with 18 properties having positive absorption.
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16-Year 2012201320142015Average Industrial Space Absorption -16,43059,719549,42437,01187,654 Vacancy 10.75%10.33%6.04%5.73% Amount Constructed 125,00000098,694 Available Supply1,525,1671,465,448916,024879,013 Flex Space Absorption 11,370-22,352-2,34577,17215,050 Vacancy8.4%11.3%11.6%12.7% Amount Constructed000105,43222,203 Available Supply 64,99987,35189,696117,956 Retail Space Absorption-41,13548,48556,46438,66261,381 Vacancy8.9%8.1%7.35%6.7% Amount Constructed000067,121 Available Supply546,242497,757441,293402,631 Lancaster Market Comparison 2012 – 2015
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2007 – 2015 increase of 1,536 jobs (.6%). Unemployment. November 2014 – 10,800 (4.1%). November 2015 – 10,400 (3.8%). 2015 Creation of 1,899 job (private sector). Retail positions -47. Office positions +377. Industrial positions -1,240. Health care +771. Accommodations & food +1,351.
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