1. 15 April 2016, ECED-2016 at UCL The international context of higher education change: Drivers and challenges Simon Marginson ESRC/HEFCE Centre for Global Higher Education UCL Institute of Education

2. Global mobility and convergence Formation of emerging nations Finance- driven global capitalism Growth of higher education Spread of science and WCUs Five intersecting processes, including two trends in world higher education

3. World population, real GDP and enrolment in tertiary education, 1970-2012 1970 =1.0. Data from World Bank, UNESCO 2015

4. The dynamic growth of international student mobility Students enrolled outside their country of citizenship, millions, 1975-2015 (OECD data)

5. Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities top 200, 2015

6. Stronger research universities in Europe European universities in ARWU top 80 in 2004 (14) European universities in ARWU top 80 in 2015 (19) 27 39 41 45 46 48 51 57 59 63 68 72 74 79 Fed Instit Tech Zurich SWITZERLAND U Utrecht NETHERLANDS Paris 6 P&M Curie FRANCE TU Munich GERMANY Karolinska Instit SWEDEN Paris 11 Sud FRANCE U Munich GERMANY U Zurich SWITZERLAND U Copenhagen DENMARK Leiden U NETHERLANDS U Oslo NORWAY U Helsinki FINLAND Uppsala U SWEDEN U Goettingen GERMANY Source: Shanghai Academic Ranking of World Universities 2015 20 35 36 41 46 48 51 52 54 56 58 eq 61 eq 67 eq 71 72 73 75 77 Fed Instit Tech Zurich SWITZERLAND U Copenhagen DENMARK Paris 6 P&M Curie FRANCE Paris 11 Sud FRANCE Heidelberg U GERMANY Karolinska Instit SWEDEN TU Munich GERMANY U Munich GERMANY U Zurich SWITZERLAND U Utrecht NETHERLANDS U Geneva SWITZERLAND U Oslo NORWAY Uppsala U SWEDEN U Helsinki FINLAND Ghent U BELGIUM Ecole Normale Superieure FRANCE Aarus U DENMARK U Groningen NETHERLANDS Stockholm U SWEDEN

7. World-Class Universities, Chinese systems Shanghai ARWU top 500 universities, 2004 & 2015

8. East Asian (Chinese civilizational) sphere China Hong Kong SAR Macau SAR Taiwan Singapore South Korea Japan Vietnam

9. Top ten school systems in OECD PISA 2012 (mean student scores, 15 year olds, East Asian education systems in red) ReadingMathematicsScience Shanghai China 570Shanghai China 613Shanghai China 580 Hong Kong SAR 545Singapore 573Hong Kong SAR 555 Singapore 542Hong Kong SAR 561Singapore 551 Japan 538Taiwan 560Japan 547 South Korea 536South Korea 554Finland 545 Finland 524Macao SAR 538Estonia 541 Taiwan 523Japan 536South Korea 538 Canada 523Liechtenstein 535Vietnam 528 Ireland 523Switzerland 531Poland 526 Poland 518Netherlands 523Liechtenstein 525 Vietnam 508Vietnam 511 Canada 525 UK 499UK 494UK 514 USA 498USA 481USA 497

10. Investment in R&D in 2014 in selected East Asian, Western European and Anglophone countries Investment in R&D as a proportion of GDP (OECD data 2016) Data for USA, Australia and Singapore 2013, data for Switzerland and Brazil 2012, data for India 2011

11. Annual science papers 2005-2014: USA, China, other East Asia Thomson-Reuters/UNESCO data. Papers include reviews and notes. Other East Asia = Japan, Korea, Singapore, Vietnam (Taiwan absent from UNESCO data)

12. Proportion (%) of world’s top 1% papers by citation rate: USA, EU, China and Japan, 2012