1. 1 Hubbert’s Peak, The Coal Question, and Climate Change Dave Rutledge Chair, Division of Engineering and Applied Science Caltech “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” Mark Twain Life on the Mississippi slides (.ppt) and spreadsheets (.xls) at http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

2. 2 The UN Panel on Climate Change The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publishes assessment reports that reflect the scientific consensus on climate change The 4 th report is being released this year –Over one thousand authors –Over one thousand reviewers Updated measurements show that the global temperature is rising 0.13  C per decade Report discusses climate simulations for 40 fossil- fuel carbon-emission scenarios, each considered to be equally valid, with story lines and different government policies, population projections, and economic models

3. 3 B1T Message A1C AIM The 40 UN IPCC Scenarios Data from the EIA (open symbols, 1980 to 2004) Ratio of total emissions from A1C AIM to B1T Message is 4:1, more like 10:1 if decline is considered Oil production in 13 of the scenarios has not peaked by 2100 2005 may be the peak year for crude-oil production; production has dropped in 2006 and 2007 in spite of record prices each year and world-wide economic expansion

4. 4 Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report Hubbert’s peak –The history of US oil production –Reserves  how much oil do the Saudis have? –How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question –The history of British coal production –American coal –How much coal will the world produce? Alternatives to fossil fuels Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperatures Results and Implications Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves

5. 5 King Hubbert Geophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston In 1956, he presented a paper “Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels” at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio He made predictions of the peak year of US oil production based on two estimates of the ultimate production

6. 6 Hubbert’s Peak From his 1956 paper Hubbert drew bell-shaped curves by hand For the larger estimate, he predicted a peak in 1970 Hubbert has been much criticized  there is no consideration of supply and demand curves, prices, or policy, people are uncomfortable with the curve going up and down at the same rate

7. 7 What Actually Happened? Gb = billions of barrels, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) The EIA also does predictions, and they have been high 8 years in a row 1970

8. 8 US Crude-Oil Production EIA data from 1859 Ultimate production is important for climate change because of the long time scales associated with temperature changes Year for 90% exhaustion gives a time frame for a transition to alternatives 90% exhausted in 2011 225Gb ultimate 31Gb remaining

9. 9 Historical Fits for US Oil Fit for ultimate Fit for 90% year Cumulative Hubbert (L48) Duncan & McKelvey USGS (L48) USGS ($60/b)

10. 10 Estimating Resources at the USGS Ken Deffeyes says this about the US Geological Survey, “When USGS workers tried to estimate resources, they acted, well, like bureaucrats. Whenever a judgment call was made about choosing a statistical method, the USGS almost invariably tended to pick the one that gave the higher estimate.” from the book Hubbert’s Peak

11. 11 Reserves and Resources Reserves refer to fossil fuels that are appropriate to produce, taking current economic conditions and technology into account For coal, reserves are often confounded with resources, which typically include all coal in seams larger than a minimum thickness and less than a maximum depth For oil and natural gas, discoveries are been important, and reserves tend to be low For coal, environmental restrictions are important, and the reserves tend to be high Often reserves are not adjusted for production

12. 12 OPEC Oil Reserves Go Up and Up! Reserves from the BP Statistical Review 360Gb rise in reserves, no adjustment for 150Gb produced since 1980 A recent leak of Kuwait Petroleum Company documents showed reserves are only 48Gb 1980 Kuwait reserves adjusted for production since then are 52Gb Current official reserves for Kuwait are 102Gb

13. 13 Rate Plot for US Crude Oil EIA data (cumulative from 1859, symbols 1900-2006) Growth rate for cumulative = annual production/cumulative production Can identify trends and extrapolate to find ultimate production King Hubbert first made this kind of plot in 1980 Dashed curve is for previous normal fit

14. 14 How Much Oil will the Saudis Produce? EIA data (open 1982-1990, closed 1991-2007), Nehring 1975 cumulative Saudi 1980 reserves adjusted for production since then are 96Gb Current Saudi reserves are 264Gb; claim 15Mb/d for 50 years Matt Simmons was the first to call attention to this situation in his book, Twilight in the Desert Fit for normal is 95Gb remaining 90% exhausted in 2037

15. 15 Rate Plot for World Oil and Gas Oil + natural gas + natural gas liquids like propane and butane Tboe = trillion barrels of oil equivalent Data BP Statistical Review (open 1960-1982, closed 1983-2006) Fit is 3.2Tboe Remaining 90% exhausted in 2070

16. 16 Historical Fits for World Oil and Gas Fit for Ultimate Fit for 90% Year Cumulative BGR reserves The German resources agency BGR gives oil and gas reserves as 2.7Tboe –Expectation of future discoveries and future OPEC oil reserve reductions –Includes 500Gboe for non-conventional sources like Canadian oil sands IPCC scenarios assume 11-15Tboe is available

17. 17 Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report Hubbert’s peak –The history of US oil production –Reserves  how much oil do the Saudis have? –How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question –The history of British coal production –American coal –How much coal will the world produce? Alternatives to fossil fuels Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperature Results and Implications Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves

18. 18 British Coal

19. 19 The Coal Question, Stanley Jevons (1865)

20. 20 Mt = millions of metric tons Data from the US National Bureau of Economic Research (1854-1876), the Durham Coal Mining Museum (1877-1956), and the British Department of Trade and Industry (1957-2006) Peak production was in 1913 with 292Mt from 1,000,000 miners 2006 production is 19Mt from 4,000 miners British Coal Production

21. 21 Cumulative British Coal Production Gt = billions of metric tons 1854-2006, 1853 cumulative from Stanley Jevons, The Coal Question Mines were nationalized in 1947 Strip mining started in 1942, and with a trend to 1.0Gt ultimate production Pre-War fit Post-War fit

22. 22 UK Rate Plot with Pre-War and Post-War Fits Post-War fit Pre-War fit

23. 23 Recent UK Production Data from the UK Department of Trade and Industry (2001-May 2007) Quick decline, considering that coal prices have been high Adjusted reserves are 110Mt, in agreement with trend At the peak in 1913 there were 3,024 mines Currently 18 underground mines and 31 strip mines Trend is for 120Mt remaining 12% drop per year Government high projection Government low projection

24. 24 Historical Fits for UK Coal Reserves 1864 reserves from Edward Hull of the Geological Survey Other data from the World Energy Council Surveys of Energy Resources Only 29% of Hull’s reserves have been produced Hull Fit for ultimate Cumulative

25. 25 Reserves-to-Production Ratio for UK Coal 1864 reserves from Edward Hull of the Geological Survey Other data from the World Energy Council Surveys of Energy Resources

26. 26 American Coal

27. 27 US Coal Production Data from Robert Milici and the EIA Clean-Air Act of 1970 and Amendment of 1977 encouraged use of low-sulfur western coal Annual sales are around 25 billion dollars (10% of Wall-Mart) West of the Mississippi Total

28. 28 Anthracite in Pennsylvania Data from the USGS (Robert Milici) and the EIA Anthracite is a grade of coal used for home heating that burns with little smoke Peak production was 90Mt in 1917, current production is 1.5Mt

29. 29 Historical Fits for PA Anthracite Reserves from Power Resources of the World (1929) and the EIA Only 16% of the 1913 reserves have been produced 1913 reserves-to-production ratio was 180 years Current reserves-to-production ratio is 500 years Fit for ultimate Cumulative EIA Reserves 1913 Reserves

30. 30 Bituminous Coal in Virginia Data from Robert Milici and the EIA Virginia has metallurgical grade coal

31. 31 Rate Plot for Virginia Coal Data from Robert Milici and the EIA, cumulative from 1800, closed 1900-1935, open 1936-1955, closed 1956-2005, reserves from the EIA Trend is for 0.7Gt remaining Reserves are 3.1Gt Pre-war

32. 32 Historical Fits for VA Bituminous Trend is for 17% of the 1913 reserves to eventually be produced Trend is for 25% of the 2005 reserves to eventually be produced 1913 reserves-to-production ratio was 2,000 years Current reserves-to-production ratio is 120 years Cumulative 20Gt Reserves plus Cumulative in 1913 Fit for ultimate Fit for 90% year 5.3Gt Reserves plus Cumulative in 2005

33. 33 Error Ratios for Ultimate Production Typical error ratio is 1.5:1 or less when cumulative is 20%-70% of ultimate Error ratio is 1.1:1 or less when cumulative is higher than 70% of ultimate

34. 34 Are US Coal Reserves Too High? "Present estimates of coal reserves are based upon methods that have not been reviewed or revised since their inception in 1974, and much of the input data were compiled in the early 1970s. Recent programs to assess reserves in limited areas using updated methods indicate that only a small fraction of previously estimated reserves are actually minable reserves." from the National Academy of Sciences Report on Coal, June, 2007 “The 250-year estimate was made in the 1970s and was based on the assumption that 25 percent of the coal that had been located was recoverable with current technology and at current prices, said one member of the study group, Edward S. Rubin, a professor of environmental engineering and science at Carnegie Mellon University. But he said that more recent studies by the United States Geological Survey showed that at least in some areas, only 5 percent of the coal was recoverable with today’s technology and at current prices.” from the New York Times, June 21, 2007

35. 35 Updated Methods in Coal Reserves Here are some restrictions from the USGS National Coal Assessment for the Illinois basin As more restrictions are taken into account in the assessment, the reserves drop We will take the reserves to be an upper limit on future production

36. 36 Coal East of the Mississippi Does not include Pennsylvania anthracite Data from Robert Milici and the EIA, cumulative from 1800, closed 1900-1940, open 1941-1948, closed 1949-2005, reserves from the EIA Fit is 37Gt remaining Reserves are 96Gt Pre-war

37. 37 Cumulative Production for the East Pre-war

38. 38 Western Coal

39. 39 Coal West of the Mississippi Data from Robert Milici and the EIA closed 1800-1970, open 1971-1978, closed 1979-2005 Reserves from the EIA, Montana is the state with the largest reserves, 68Gt, but annual production is only 36Mt Fit is for 33Gt remaining Reserves are 79Gt without Montana Before Clean-Air Act

40. 40 Cumulative Production for the West Before Clean-Air Act

41. 41 Railroad Shipping Pattern for Coal Slide from Glenn Harrison at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Producing Montana’s reserves would require minimal rail development

42. 42 World Production and Reserves 2006 Production numbers from the BP Statistical Review Reserves from the World Energy Council surveys of resources (2006/2007 South Africa Yearbook for South Africa, and the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources 2001 by way of Sandro Schmidt at the BGR) Production, GtReserves, Gt China2.38189 US1.05247 India0.45 92 Australia0.37 79 Russia0.31157 South Africa0.26 29 World6.20963

43. 43 Chinese Coal

44. 44 Chinese Coal Production Data from 1896-1997 The Chinese Coal Industry: An Economic History by Elspeth Thomson, and 1998-2006 BP Statistical Review Problems with data during 1998-2002 because of safety campaign, corrections by Jianjun Tu applied (open symbols are uncorrected data) Great Leap Forward

45. 45 Rate Plot for China Cumulative from 1896, open 1918-1969, closed 1970-2003, open 2004-2006) Reserves from the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources 2001 by way of Sandro Schmidt at the BGR Trend line for 70Gt remaining Reserves are 189Gt Transition?

46. 46 Rate Plot for Australia and New Zealand Reserves from the 2004 World Energy Council survey Data (open 1981-1984, closed 1985-2006) from the BP Statistical Review 1990 Australia cumulative from A.J. Hargraves, 1993 Trend for 50Gt remaining Reserves are 79Gt

47. 47 Rate Plot for Europe Reserves from the 2004 World Energy Council survey, down from 171Gt in 1990 Data (open 1981-1993, closed 1994-2006) from the BP Statistical Review 2005 cumulative from the German BGR Energy Resources Report France closed its last mine in 2004 Germany plans to close the last 8 mines in the former West Germany by 2018 Trend for 21Gt remaining Reserves are 55Gt

48. 48 Rate Plot for Africa Data from World Energy Council, Phillip Ellis, and BP Statistical Review (closed 1913-1974, open 1975-1990, closed 1991-2006) South African reserves were reduced by 20Gt last year Transition during the time of the boycotts, increasing ultimate trend by 65% Fit is 16Gt remaining Reserves are 30Gt Pre-boycott

49. 49 Former Soviet Union Data from BP (closed 1981-1988, open 1989-2006) Cumulative from BP and Sudoplatov Coal Industry in the USSR Drop that started in 1989 was from the collapse of the Soviet Union Reserves from World Energy Council surveys, unchanged since the collapse of the Soviet Union Trend for 30Gt remaining Reserves are 227Gt Transition?

50. 50 Rate Plot for South Asia Data (1965-2006) from the BP Statistical Review Earlier production from World Energy Council Surveys Reserves from the 2004 World Energy Council survey Includes Middle East and Turkey Line is for 5% per year growth Reserves are 107Gt

51. 51 Rate Plot for Central and South America Data (1965-2006) from the BP Statistical Review 2005 cumulative from the German BGR Energy Resources Report Reserves from the 2004 World Energy Council survey Line is for 6% per year growth Reserves are 20Gt

52. 52 World Reserves vs Projections North America includes fits for the East (37Gt), the West (33Gt), reserves for Montana (68Gt), and trends for Canada and Mexico (total of 2Gt) UN IPCC scenarios assume 18Tboe is available for production RegionReserves GtProjections Gt North America 255140 East Asia 190 70 Australia and New Zealand 79 50 Former Soviet Union227 30 Europe 55 21 Africa 30 16 South Asia 107 Central and South America 20 World (at 3.6boe/t)963 (3.5Tboe)454 (1.6Tboe)

53. 53 Fit to normal for coal for 1.6Tboe UN IPCC scenarios assume 29 to 32Gboe of fossil fuels are available 90% in 2077 1.6Tboe coal remaining 90% in 2088 4.8Tboe total fossil fuels remaining Future Fossil-Fuels Production Fit for ultimate Fit for 90% year

54. 54 Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report Hubbert’s peak –The history of US oil production –Reserves  how much oil do the Saudis have? –How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question –The history of British coal production –American coal –How much coal will the world produce? Alternatives to fossil fuels Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperature Results and Implications Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves

55. 55 Alternatives to Fossil Fuels Hydroelectric and nuclear are each about 15% of world electricity Wind –74GW capacity (1.0% of world electricity) –Capacity has increased by a factor of 10 in 9 years –At 5 ¢/ kWh, competitive with fossil fuels –Excellent locations in US prairie states and offshore –19% of new US capacity in 2006 Ethanol and biodiesel –200Mboe/y (0.7% of world oil) –Production has increased by a factor of 10 in 25 years

56. 56 Solar Energy Photovoltaics –8GW capacity (0.1% of world electricity) –Capacity has increased by a factor of 100 in 22 years –At 25 ¢/ kWh, comparable to peak rates in California –Advantage is local power generation (no new transmission lines) –Caltech is installing a 230-kW plant on top of a parking structure Concentrating solar –US capacity is 400MW –At 12 ¢/ kWh, higher than fossil fuels –5¢/ kWh for operations and maintenance, competitive with fossil fuels after construction loans are paid off –The three major California utilities, Southern California Edison, San Diego Gas and Electric, and Pacific Gas and Electric, are each planning billion-dollar concentrating solar plants

57. 57 Nevada Solar One Thermal storage in millions of gallons of hot oil

58. 58 Nevada Solar One 50 years of operation is the equivalent of a 5-foot coal seam under the area of the plant

59. 59  Area in red circle in southwestern US could supply sufficient energy to replace the entire US grid From Schott Glass

60. 60 Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report Hubbert’s peak –The history of US oil production –Reserves  how much oil do the Saudis have? –How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question –The history of British coal production –American coal –How much coal will the world produce? Alternatives to fossil fuels Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperature Results and Implications Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves

61. 61 Comparing with the UN IPCC Scenarios Our Producer-Limited profile has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios Jean Laherrere was the first to point out this anomalous situation Carbon coefficients from the EIA: oil (110kg/boe), gas (79kg/boe), coal (141kg/boe), and future oil and gas weighted by BGR reserves (98kg/boe) Producer-Limited Profile 540Gt carbon remaining

62. 62 Simulated CO 2 Levels Predictions using the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder with a modified WRE profile The Producer-Limited Profile gives a peak CO 2 concentration of 460ppm in 2075 The Super-Kyoto Profile gives a 440ppm peak

63. 63 Simulated Temperature Rise Both the Producer-Limited and Super-Kyoto profiles a give a maximum total temperature rise is a maximum of 1.8  C in 2140 The Super-Kyoto Profile gives a delay, but it does not decrease the peak Only 0.8  C rise is associated with future fossil-fuel production Sensitivity of peak temperature to errors in coal ultimate is 0.0007  C/Gt Total Associated with Future Fossil Fuels Recovery time ~ 800 years

64. 64 Outline The 4 th UN IPCC Assessment Report Hubbert’s peak –The history of US oil production –Reserves  how much oil do the Saudis have? –How much oil and gas will the world produce? The Coal Question –The history of British coal production –American coal –How much coal will the world produce? Alternatives to fossil fuels Simulation of future CO2 levels and temperature Results and Implications Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves

65. 65 Results Historical fits for normal curves and rate plots to production data have given useful projections for ultimate production and the year of 90% exhaustion, better than reserves and reserves-to-production ratios Projection for future world oil and gas production, 3.2 trillion barrels-of-oil equivalent, is comparable to the reserves Projection for future world coal production, 1.6 trillion barrels-of-oil equivalent, is half of the reserves Projection for fossil fuels is 90% exhaustion around 2080; giving a time frame for alternatives Stretching out production (Super-Kyoto profile) does not reduce the temperature peak in the next century

66. 66 Implications Since the projection for coal production is less than that for oil and gas, how much can the world depend on coal-to-oil and coal-to-gas conversion? Since the projection for future fossil-fuel carbon emissions is less than that in all 40 UN IPCC scenarios, should the scenarios and the model results be reconsidered?

67. 67 Proposal  Fossil-Fuel Preserves To reduce the effects of climate change associated with future fossil-fuel use, it is critical to reduce ultimate production, not just slow it down Wouldn’t our descendents appreciate having the fossil fuel in the ground, rather than the CO 2 in the air or in reservoirs? We could make fossil-fuel preserves by phasing out mineral rights on federal lands, which account for a third of our fossil-fuel production Our descendents would gain flexibility in approaching the issue of climate change Future chemists could have oil, gas, and coal for a petro-chemical industry

68. 68 Many Thanks for Advice, Criticism, Discussion, and Slides Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Steve Smith at the Joint Global Change Research Institute in the University of Maryland Bill Bridges, Dave Goodstein, Melany Hunt, John Ledyard, Tapio Schneider, John Seinfeld, and Tom Tombrello at Caltech Alex Farrell and Adam Brandt at UC Berkeley Dimitri Antsos at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Commentators at the Oil Drum Bulletin Board John Rutledge at Freese and Nichols, Inc. in Fort Worth Charlie Kennel at the University of California at San Diego Sandro Schmidt at the BGR Special thanks to Sandy Garstang in the Caltech Library and Dale Yee in the Caltech Engineering Division for their ingenuity in locating coal mining records