1. Do Now…
Which of the following is the leading predictor of how an individual will vote in a congressional election? (A) Newspaper endorsements (B) Gender (C) Partisanship (D) Presidential endorsement (E) Occupation

2. Do Now…
Which of the following is NOT a way in which the federal government regulates campaigns? (A) By requirements for disclosure of campaign donations (B) By establishment of federal agencies to regulate campaign finance activities (C) By limits on the distribution of soft money (D) By limits on individual donations to campaigns (E) By prohibitions on negative advertising

3. Unit 3 Political Parties, Interest Groups, and Mass Media Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns
Reference: All photos are copied from Google Images.

4. Focus Questions Who Governs? To What Ends?
1. How do American elections determine the kind of people who governs us?
What matters most in
deciding who wins
presidential and
congressional elections?
To What Ends?
1. Do elections make a real
difference in what laws
get passed?

5. Learning Objectives
1. Demonstrate the differences between the party-oriented campaigns of the nineteenth century and the candidate-oriented ones of today, explaining the major elements of a successful campaign for office today.
2. Discuss how important campaign funding is to election outcomes, what the major sources of such funding are under current law, and how successful reform legislation has been in purifying United States elections of improper monetary influences.
3. Define the term realigning election and discuss the major examples of such elections in the past as well as recent debates over whether realignment is again underway.
4. Describe what the Democrats and the Republicans each must do to put together a successful national coalition to achieve political power in any election.
5. Outline the major arguments on either side of the question of whether elections do or do not result in major changes in public policy in the United States.

6. Who is likely to become President?
A Current Member of the Senate Most Presidents have been… - A former member of Congress - A governor - A military hero - A Vice President

7. Two Phases of an Election
Getting Nominated
- Get your name on the Ballot
- It is an individual effort (in Europe the
party decides)
Getting Elected
- Primary Elections
- General Elections

8. Presidential Vs. Congressional Campaigns
-- Rarely gets 55% of the vote
-- More voters vote in the
election
-- President serves the whole
country and takes the blame
for everything
-- President is held accountable
and can’t campaign against
Washington
-- Declining influence in helping
congressional candidates get
elected
-- Incumbents get over 90% of the
vote
-- Less voters vote in non-
presidential election years
-- Gets credit for grants and other
programs
-- They can campaign against
-- Elections have become
independent of the presidential
election reducing the power of
the party.

9. You Are On The Ballot, What Is Next?
Hire the following: --- Media Consultants --- Direct Mail Firms --- Polling Firms --- Political Technology Firms

10. Check For Understanding
One reason for the persistence of a two-party system in the United States is (A) the lack of divisive issues in United States politics (B) the separation of powers (C) the single-member district electoral system (D) the lack of a strong labor movement (E) low voter turnout in most elections

11. Running For President Getting mentioned as being presidential caliber
(Press, trips, speeches, sponsoring legislation, governor)
Setting aside time to run (ex. Reagan spent 6-years)
Money: (Individuals $2,000 / PACS $5,000)
Organization:
- Staff (lawyers, fundraisers, accountants)
- Volunteers
- Advisors on issues; position papers
Strategy and Themes:
- Incumbents defend records
- Challengers attack
- Positive or negative campaign
- Developing a theme
- Judging the timing – Momentum
- Choosing your target audience

12. Do Now…
The framers of the United States Constitution left decisions on voting eligibility to the
(A) civil rights agencies
(B) individual states
(C) United States Supreme Court
(D) House of Representatives
(E) Senate

13. Do Now…
Which of the following statements about gerry- mandering is true?
It has been banned by United States Supreme Court decisions beginning with Baker v. Carr.
It was used traditionally to maintain urban control of the House of Representatives.
It can be used by a political party to draw boundary lines to control as many districts as possible.
It guarantees greater constituency control over elected representatives.
It ensures liberal control of the House of Representatives.

14. Primary Vs. General Primary and general campaigns
- What works in a general election may not work in a primary
- Iowa caucuses (February – general very liberal or conservative)
- The balancing act – being conservative or liberal enough to get elected
- Even primary voters can be more extreme ideologically than average voters
Television, debates, and direct mail
Paid Advertising
News broadcasts
Internet

15. Money How important is it? Approx. 2-billion spent on last election
Sources of Campaign Money
Campaign Finance Rules
Effects on Reform
Money and Winning

16. What Decides Elections?
Party Identification – Republicans more loyal to party then democrats
Issues – Most voters vote their own interest
- Prospective voting – very few people really know the issues
- Retrospective Voting – most people vote this way…based
on the incumbent’s performance.
The Campaign – does make a difference by waking up voter loyalty, how candidates handle pressure, judge candidates character
Finding a winning coalition
- Democrats (Blacks and Jews loyal, Some Hispanics, but
Catholics, Southerners, and unionists are departing)
- Republicans: (Business and professional people and
retired and elderly voters)

17. Election Outcomes
Party Realignments - Definition: sharp, lasting shift in the popular coalition supporting one or both parties - Clearest cases of realignment 1860: slavery 1896: economics 1932: depression Party Decline - Fewer people identify with either party - Increase in ticket splitting

18. The Effects of Elections on Policy
Argument: public policy remains more or less the same no matter which official or party is in office
Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951
Evidence indicates that many American elections do make great differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change
Why, then, the perception that elections do not matter? Because change alternates with consolidation; most elections are only retrospective judgments

19. Key Points To Remember
Campaigns have really changed in the last two decades, for example candidates have to create a temporary organization to get elected.
Campaign financing laws have placed many restrictions on fund raising.
Most people vote retrospectively instead of prospectively.
20% of voters actually decides who wins the election.
Campaigning is synonymous with Fundraising.