1. Join us Friday, Mar. 6 at 1:30 pm Toward a Predictive Model for Fundraising  We’ll review the preliminary results from a recently- completed survey of fundraising practices in advocacy organizations.  We’ll develop scenarios to test our theories and discuss next steps for this project.  Come to the workshop and help write the rest of the story... we’d love to see you there!

2. TOWARD A PREDICTIVE MODEL FOR FUNDRAISING #15NTCPREDICTIVE Mary Dillon Kerwin President, Blue Strike NTen Nonprofit Technology Conference Austin #15NTC March 6, 2015

3. Introduction Collaboration Notes: http://po.st/tHUJMN http://po.st/tHUJMN

4. This session ❖ Launch the next phase of research into a fundraising tool that will help development directors set goals, manage time, and deploy resources. ❖ Look at preliminary findings and ask for your recommendations for phase II.

5. Agenda  How we got started  What we found (so far)  A look at the study’s limitations  Real life scenarios  Where we go next

6. BACKGROUND Project Development

7. It started with...... a question from the audience “Can you tell me which strategy will yield the best results?” Why is this question so hard to answer?

8. Tools that help us predict We have retirement calculators, we have mortgage calculators, we even have workout calculators...

9. How about one for development? Your organization’s revenue mix, number of donors Your staff size and level of experience Your volunteer profiles, willingness to help

10. Hypothetical #1 If your organization is less than 10 years old, and you have fewer than 500 donors, and you have a part-time development director, then you are likely to find success... 1. Starting a sustainer program 2. Relying on board participation 3. Focusing on a combination of web-based giving strategies

11. Hypothetical #2 If your organization is going through an executive director transition, and you have approximately 2,500 donors, and you raised $2 million last year, you are likely to find success... 1. Starting a giving club for major donors 2. Hiring additional fundraising staff 3. Focusing on cultivation of high net worth individuals

12. Enlisting help for the project ❖ Conference calls with nonprofits, discussions with businesses and consultants ❖ Faculty advisor for independent study ❖ Data collection ❖ Analysis -- here we are at NTC!

13. Questions to think about  As we go through the research, here are a few questions to consider:  Have you seen similar, supporting or contradictory research?  How might you use the findings?  What other correlations or causes should we look for?

14. RESEARCH Descriptives and Group Differences

15. Research design ❖ Focused on organizations engaged in advocacy, public policy, civic engagement, and public interest law ❖ 900 organizations selected at random received an online survey from Jan. 20 to Feb. 17, 2015 ❖ Questionnaire asked about 2013 fundraising practices ❖ Responses were matched with IRS administrative records (FY2013) to create the datafile.

16. About the sample  175 responses  162 completed surveys  44 states and 14 different categories

17. Figure 2.1 Nonprofit Category

18. Individual giving and revenue ❖ Most organizations (77%) have fewer than 1,000 donors ❖ Most (60%) have fewer than 5,000 names on their email files ❖ Only 17% count on individual donors to make up 50% or more of their revenue ❖ Average revenue is $2 million

19. Staff and volunteers ❖ Two-thirds of the organizations have staff dedicated to development ❖ 38% have executive directors with less than five years tenure; while one-third have tenure of 10 years or more ❖ Board participation is present, but modest

20. Figure 3.1 Fundraising Practices

21. Figure 3.2 Giving Clubs

22. Figure 3.3 Matching Campaigns

23. Figure 3.4 Conditional Ask String

24. Figure 3.5 Sustainer Program

25. Figure 3.6 Second Gift Ask

26. Figure 3.1 Fundraising Practices

27. Figure 4.1 Development Directors

28. Figure 4.2 Board Participation

29. Figure 4.3 Executive Director Tenure

30. Figure 4.4 Comparison

31. Other variables  Age of organization*  Category  Number of donors/email file*  Assets to revenue ratio  Revenue mix * Indication of possible statistical significance

32. LIMITATIONS Considerations in using the research

33. Limitations ❖ Not generalizable to all nonprofits ❖ Does not measure all practices ❖ Revenue is an imperfect dependent variable ❖ Survey focused on 2013 - risk of memory decay ❖ Ranges are difficult to use in regression ❖ Low response rate may result in non-response bias

34. DISCUSSION Real Life Scenarios

35. Hypothetical #1 If your organization is less than 10 years old, and you have fewer than 500 donors, and you have a part-time development director, then you are likely to find success... Starting a sustainer program Relying on board participation Focusing on a combination of web-based giving strategies

36. Hypothetical #2 If your organization is going through an executive director transition, and you have approximately 2,500 donors, and you raised $2 million last year, you are likely to find success... Starting a giving club for major donors Hiring additional fundraising staff Focusing on cultivation of high net worth individuals

37. Hypothetical #3 If your organization is..

38. Discussion questions

39. NEXT STEPS Phase II of research, sharing findings through webinars

40. Additional testing  Looking for correlations  Segmenting by age, category, income  Controlling for media and unusual gifts

41. Sharing research findings  Email to all survey respondents  Webinars with state nonprofit associations  Brown bag lunch with Association of Fundraising Professionals

42. Wrap up Evaluation Survey: http://po.st/FldqRm http://po.st/FldqRm Collaboration notes: http://po.st/tHUJMNhttp://po.st/tHUJMN