1. AP Statistics Chapter 23 Inference for Means

2. Objectives: The t-Distributions Degrees of Freedom (df) One-Sample t Confidence Interval for Means One-Sample t Hypothesis Test for Means

3. Getting Started Now that we know how to create confidence intervals and test hypotheses about proportions, it’d be nice to be able to do the same for means. Just as we did before, we will base both our confidence interval and our hypothesis test on the sampling distribution model. The Central Limit Theorem told us that the sampling distribution model for means is Normal with mean μ and standard deviation

4. All we need is a random sample of quantitative data. And the true population standard deviation, σ. –Well, that’s a problem… Getting Started (cont.)

5. Proportions have a link between the proportion value and the standard deviation of the sample proportion. This is not the case with means—knowing the sample mean tells us nothing about We’ll do the best we can: estimate the population parameter σ with the sample statistic s. Our resulting standard error is

6. Getting Started (cont.) We now have extra variation in our standard error from s, the sample standard deviation. –We need to allow for the extra variation so that it does not mess up the margin of error and P-value, especially for a small sample. And, the shape of the sampling model changes—the model is no longer Normal. So, what is the sampling model?

7. Gosset’s t William S. Gosset, an employee of the Guinness Brewery in Dublin, Ireland, worked long and hard to find out what the sampling model was. The sampling model that Gosset found has been known as Student’s t. The Student’s t-models form a whole family of related distributions that depend on a parameter known as degrees of freedom. –We often denote degrees of freedom as df, and the model as t df.

8. t - Distributions When we do not know σ, we substitute the standard error of for its standard deviation. The resulting test statistic does not have a normal distribution, but has a t – distribution.

9. t - Distributions Unlike the standard normal distribution, there is a different t – distribution for each sample size n. We specify a particular t – distribution by giving its degrees of freedom (df). df = n-1 We write the t – distribution with k degrees of freedom as t (k) for short.

10. Properties of the t – Distribution. The model of the t – distributions are similar in shape to the standard normal curve. They are symmetric about zero, single- peaked, and bell-shaped. The spread of the t – distributions is a bit greater than that of the standard normal distribution. –The t – distributions have more probability in the tails and less in the center than does the standard normal. –This is true because substituting the estimate s for the fixed parameter σ introduces more variation into the statistic. As the degrees of freedom k increase, the t (k) model approaches the N(0,1) curve ever more closely. –This happens because s estimates σ more accurately as the sample size increases.

11. Properties of the t – Distribution. Student’s t-models are unimodal, symmetric, and bell shaped, just like the Normal. But t-models with only a few degrees of freedom have much fatter tails than the Normal. (That’s what makes the margin of error bigger.)

12. Properties of the t – Distribution As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-models look more and more like the Normal. In fact, the t-model with infinite degrees of freedom is exactly Normal.

13. Properties of the t – Distribution

14. Finding t-Values By Hand The Student’s t-model is different for each value of degrees of freedom. Because of this, Statistics books usually have one table of t- model critical values for selected confidence levels.

15. Finding t-Values By Hand (cont.) The critical value t – use Table T to find, enter table with probability p or Confidence level C. The table gives the t* with probability p lying to its right and probability C lying between –t* and t*.

16. Table T - t*

17. Finding t* Suppose you want to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean of a population based on an SRS of size n=12. What critical value t* should you use?

18. Solution In Table T, consult the row corresponding to df = 11. Move across that row to the entry that is directly above 95% CI on the bottom of the chart. The desired critical value is t*=2.201.

19. Finding t-Values By Hand (cont.) Alternatively, we could use technology to find t critical values for any number of degrees of freedom and any confidence level you need. The TI-84 calculator contains an inverse t function that works much the same as invNorm function. t* = invT (area to the left of t*, df).

20. A Confidence Interval for Means? A practical sampling distribution model for means When the conditions are met, the standardized sample mean follows a Student’s t-model with n – 1 degrees of freedom. We estimate the standard error with

21. A Confidence Interval for Means? (cont.) When Gosset corrected the model for the extra uncertainty, the margin of error got bigger. –Your confidence intervals will be just a bit wider and your P-values just a bit larger than they were with the Normal model. By using the t-model, you’ve compensated for the extra variability in precisely the right way.

22. When the conditions are met, we are ready to find the confidence interval for the population mean, μ. The confidence interval is where the standard error of the mean is The critical value depends on the particular confidence level, C, that you specify and on the number of degrees of freedom, n – 1, which we get from the sample size. A Confidence Interval for Means? (cont.) One-sample t-interval for the mean

23. Assumptions and Conditions Gosset found the t-model by simulation. Years later, when Sir Ronald A. Fisher showed mathematically that Gosset was right, he needed to make some assumptions to make the proof work. We will use these assumptions when working with Student’s t.

24. Assumptions and Conditions (cont.) Independence Assumption: –The data values should be independent. –Randomization Condition: The data arise from a random sample or suitably randomized experiment. Randomly sampled data (particularly from an SRS) are ideal. –10% Condition: When a sample is drawn without replacement, the sample should be no more than 10% of the population.

25. Assumptions and Conditions (cont.) Normal Population Assumption: –We can never be certain that the data are from a population that follows a Normal model, but we can check the –Nearly Normal Condition: The data come from a distribution that is unimodal and symmetric. Check this condition by making a histogram or Normal probability plot.

26. Assumptions and Conditions (cont.) –Nearly Normal Condition: The smaller the sample size (n < 15 or so), the more closely the data should follow a Normal model. For moderate sample sizes (n between 15 and 40 or so), the t works well as long as the data are unimodal and reasonably symmetric. For larger sample sizes, the t methods are safe to use unless the data are extremely skewed.

27. One Sample t Confidence Interval for Means The confidence interval for the population mean is: The critical value t* depends on the particular confidence level, C, that you specify and on the number of degrees of freedom, n-1.

28. Example: t Confidence Interval Some AP Statistics students are concerned about safety near an elementary school. Though there is a 25 MPH SCHOOL ZONE sign nearby, most drivers seem to go much faster than that, even when the warning sign flashes. The students randomly selected 20 flashing zone times during the school year, noted the speeds of the cars passing the school during the flashing zone times, and recorded the averages. They found that the overall average speed during the flashing school zone times for the 20 time periods was 24.6 mph with a standard deviation of 7.24 mph. Find a 90% confidence interval for the average speed of all vehicles passing the school during those hours. A histogram of their data is roughly symmetric and unimodal, with no strong skewness or outliers.

29. Solution - PANIC Parameter μ: mean speed during the flashing school zone times Assumptions Randomization Condition – Yes (it is a random selection of days from the year). 10% Condition (10n ≤ N) – Yes (it is reasonable to assume that at least 200 flashing zone times exist during the school year since the sign flashes both morning and afternoon). Nearly Normal Condition – Yes (n = 20 sample size moderate, the distribution shows roughly symmetric and unimodal, no strong skew or outliers).

30. Solution Name one sample t-interval Interval df = n-1 = 20-1 = 19 and the 90% t* = 1.729 90% CI: (21.8,27.4) Conclusion in context We are 90% confident that the true mean speed of cars passing the school when the warning sign is flashing is between 21.8 and 27.4 mph.

31. Your Turn: A SRS of 75 male adults living in a particular suburb was taken to study the amount of time they spent per week doing rigorous exercises. It indicated a mean of 73 minutes with a standard deviation of 21 minutes. Find the 95% confidence interval of the mean for all males in the suburb.

32. Ti-83/84 Calculator One-sample t Confidence Interval –STAT/TESTS/TInterval Stats – : sample mean –S x : sample standard deviation –n: sample size –C-Level: confidence level –Calculate: One-sample t Confidence Interval –STAT/TESTS/TInterval Data –List: –Freq: –C-Level: –Calculate

33. Example: Use TI-84 Environmentalists, government officials, and vehicle manufacturers are all interested in studying the auto exhaust emissions produced by motor vehicles. The major pollutants in auto exhaust from gasoline engines are hydrocarbons, monoxide, and nitrogen oxides (NOX). The table gives the NOX levels (in grams per mile) for a random sample of light-duty engines of the same type. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount of NOX emitted by light-duty engines of this type. 1.281.171.161.080.601.321.240.710.491.381.200.78 0.952.201.781.831.261.731.311.801,150.971.120.72 1.311.451.221.321.471.440.511.491.330.860.571.79 2.271.872.941.161.451.511.471.062.011.39

34. Solution Place the data in L 1 STAT/TESTS/TInterval –Data List: L1 Freq: 1 C-Level:.95 Calculate 95% Confidence Interval (1.185, 1.473) We are 95% confident that the true mean level of NOX emitted by this type of light-duty engine is between 1.185 and 1.473 grams/mile.

35. More Cautions About Interpreting Confidence Intervals Remember that interpretation of your confidence interval is key. DO SAY: –“90% of intervals that could be found in this way would cover the true value.” –Or make it more personal and say, “I am 90% confident that the true mean is between 29.5 and 32.5 mph.”

36. Make a Picture, Make a Picture, Make a Picture Pictures tell us far more about our data set than a list of the data ever could. The only reasonable way to check the Nearly Normal Condition is with graphs of the data. –Make a histogram of the data and verify that its distribution is unimodal and symmetric with no outliers. –You may also want to make a Normal probability plot to see that it’s reasonably straight.

37. A Test for the Mean The conditions for the one-sample t-test for the mean are the same as for the one-sample t-interval. We test the hypothesis H 0 :  =  0 using the statistic The standard error of the sample mean is When the conditions are met and the null hypothesis is true, this statistic follows a Student’s t model with n – 1 df. We use that model to obtain a P-value. One-sample t-test for the mean

38. Check Conditions Randomization Condition – the data come from a random sample or a randomized experiment. Population-size Condition – the sample size is less than 10% of the population. Nearly Normal Condition – the data come from a unimodal, symmetric, bell-shaped distribution. This can be verified by constructing a histogram or a normal probability plot of the data.

39. Check Conditions If the underlying population is approximately normal, the t-statistic is appropriate regardless of sample size, n. For n ≥ 40, the t-statistic is appropriate provided that there are no outliers. For 15 ≤ n < 40, the t-statistic is appropriate provided that there are no outliers or strong skew. For n < 15, the t-statistic is appropriate provided that the distribution of the data is approximately normal.

40. One-Sample t Test Statistic for Means The one-sample t statistic is: Has the t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom.

41. Example: One-Sample t Hypothesis Test for Mean A recent report on the evening news stated that teens watch an average of 13 hours of TV per week. A teacher at Central High School believes that the students in her school actually watch more than 13 hours per week. She randomly selects 25 students from the school and directs them to record their TV hours for one week. The 25 students reported the following number of hours:5561823 13018205 231102522 132461420 2320112211 Is there enough evidence at the 5% significance level to support the teacher’s claim?

42. Solution - PHANTOMS Parameter μ: the mean number of hours of TV, teens watch per week Hypothesis H 0 : μ = 13 H a : μ > 13 Assumptions Randomization Condition – Yes (stated the students were randomly selected). 10% Condition – Yes (reasonable to think there are more than 250 students in the school). Nearly Normal Condition – Yes (n=30, 15<n<40, graph histogram and sketch, shows no outliers or strong skewness).

43. Solution Name One sample t-test Test Statistic Obtain p-value df = 29, p-value = P(t >.908) =.186 Make decision p-value of.186 >.05, reject the null hypothesis. State conclusion in context The p-value of.186 is not significant at the 5% significance level (.186 >.05). Therefore, we fail to reject the null hypothesis. There is not enough evidence to conclude that the true mean hours of TV viewing per week for students in this school is greater than 13 hours.

44. Your Turn: The belief is that the mean number of hours per week of part-time work of high school seniors in a city is 10.6 hours. Data from a SRS of 50 seniors indicated that their mean number of hours of part-time work was 12.5 with a standard deviation of 1.3 hours. Test whether these data cast doubt on the current belief ( α =.05).

45. Intervals and Tests Confidence intervals and hypothesis tests are built from the same calculations. –In fact, they are complementary ways of looking at the same question. –The confidence interval contains all the null hypothesis values we can’t reject with these data.

46. Intervals and Tests (cont.) More precisely, a level C confidence interval contains all of the plausible null hypothesis values that would not be rejected by a two-sided hypothesis text at alpha level 1 – C. –So a 95% confidence interval matches a 0.05 level two- sided test for these data. Confidence intervals are naturally two-sided, so they match exactly with two-sided hypothesis tests. –When the hypothesis is one sided, the corresponding alpha level is (1 – C)/2.

47. Sample Size To find the sample size needed for a particular confidence level with a particular margin of error (ME), solve this equation for n: The problem with using the equation above is that we don’t know most of the values. We can overcome this: –We can use s from a small pilot study. –We can use z* in place of the necessary t value.

48. Sample Size (cont.) Sample size calculations are never exact. –The margin of error you find after collecting the data won’t match exactly the one you used to find n. The sample size formula depends on quantities you won’t have until you collect the data, but using it is an important first step. Before you collect data, it’s always a good idea to know whether the sample size is large enough to give you a good chance of being able to tell you what you want to know.