1. Retrofitting to CNG in South America: + and - effects on on-road mobile emissions at local and regional levels D'Angiola A., Osses M., Dawidowski L.E. and Gomez, D. CNEA (National Atomic Commission of Argentina) ISSRC (International Sustainable Systems Research Center) 2009 GEIA-ACCENT Open Conference Emissions of Gases and Aerosols Progress and Modeling Needs 26 th -28 th October, Oslo-Norway

2.  Financed by IAI (Inter American Institute for Global Change Research)  Collaboration Research Network: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Peru, USA and Germany)  aimed at providing accurate regional emissions and chemical weather forecast and climate change scenarios for South America, with emphasis on the impacts of and on megacities South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate 2006 - 2010 (http://saemc.cmm.uchile.cl/)

3. Santiago de Chile Buenos Aires Bogota Sao Paulo

4. 2 nd highest n° of GNV 1.8 million 3 rd highest n° of GNV 1.6 million 30 th highest n° of GNV 8,000 8 th highest n° of GNV 300,000

6. PopulationN° VehiclesCO 2 eq Kg /capitaCO Kg /capita Bogota8,600,000891,97358543 Buenos Aires13,800,0002,438,56987641 Santiago5,950,0001,096,0911,18351 Sao Paulo21,000,0004,741,2881,395108

10. IDFuel CO 2 CH 4 N 2 OCONMVOCsNO X PM SO 2 PC1G 2990.1840.013 53.51 (29.10-88.08)4.87 (1.28-8.24)1.43 (0.82-2.12)0.024 0.1136 PC2G 2990.1840.013 17.23 (9.42-36.66)1.78 (0.87-2.86)0.87 (0.39-1.44)0.024 0.1136 PC3G 2130.0380.032 20.46 (13.74-33.14)1.55 (0.42-3.42)1.16 (0.61-1.74)0.024 0.0810 PC4G 2130.0430.017 2.58 (1.31-23.64)0.21 (0.02-0.54)0.19 (0.06-0.98)0.024 0.0810 PC5D 2130.0340.0000.820.180.580.306 0.2016 PC6D 1820.0160.0020.550.060.670.099 0.1720 PC7D 1820.0090.0050.460.040.730.086 0.1720 PC8CNG 2360.7090.068 6.36 (2.00-18.23)1.56 (0.24-2.79)1.74 (1.05-3.70)0.021 0.0002 PC9CNG 1680.7090.068 6.36 (2.00-18.23)1.56 (0.24-2.79)1.74 (1.05-3.70)0.021 0.0001 TX1D 2130.0330.0000.820.180.580.306 0.2016 TX2D 1820.0150.0020.550.060.670.099 0.1720 TX3D 1820.0080.0040.460.040.730.086 0.1720 TX4CNG 2360.7090.068 6.36 (2.00-18.23)1.56 (0.24-2.79)1.74 (1.05-3.70)0.021 0.0002 TX5CNG 1680.7090.068 6.36 (2.00-18.23)1.56 (0.24-2.79)1.74 (1.05-3.70)0.021 0.0001 SUV1G 3670.1840.013 81.47 (27.46-146.58)8.74 (5.03-13.16)2.62 (1.43-3.73)0.024 0.1392 SUV2G 3670.1840.013 14.84 (9.94-33.14)1.79 (1.50-6.56)0.99 (0.65-3.32)0.024 0.1392 SUV3G 2860.0380.032 15.44 (6.81-22.85)1.06 (0.28-1.77)0.94 (0.29-1.59)0.024 0.1085 SUV4G 2850.0430.017 7.36 (3.21-23.19)0.44 (0.17-0.70)0.46 (0.21-0.80)0.024 0.1082 SUV5D 2130.0340.0000.820.180.900.306 0.2016 SUV6D 2340.0160.0020.550.100.670.099 0.2209 SUV7D 2340.0090.0050.460.140.730.086 0.2209 SUV8CNG 2890.7090.068 10.81 (4.03-19.67)1.56 (0.24-2.79)2.51 (1.46-3.92)0.021 0.0002 SUV9CNG 2250.7090.068 0.81 (4.03-19.67)1.56 (0.24-2.79)2.51 (1.46-3.92)0.021 0.0002 LDT1G 3650.1840.013 33.33 (20.90-53.29)4.38 (2.85-7.23)1.23 (0.92-1.43)0.032 0.1387 LDT2G 3650.0380.044 26.4 (22.89-32.79)3.07 (0.09-8.07)1.61 (0.62-2.41)0.032 0.1387 LDT3G 3650.0430.036 22.48 (19.49-27.92)2.19 (0.05-5.78)1.49 (0.58-2.24)0.032 0.1387 LDT4D 2790.0340.0001.370.152.050.396 0.2638 LDT5D 2520.0160.0020.510.171.260.129 0.2378 LDT6D 2520.0090.0050.510.171.260.129 0.2378 LDT7CNG 2880.7090.068 1.6 (0.60-4.60)0.09 ( / - 0.64)1.85 (0.75-3.50)0.029 0.0002 LDT8CNG 2880.7090.068 1.6 (0.60-4.60)0.09 ( / - 0.64)1.85 (0.75-3.50)0.029 0.0002 HDT1D 8370.1710.029 3.88 (2.11-7.13)3.52 (1.98-8.10)8.92 (4.37-12.14)1.151 (0.527-1.977) 0.7906 HDT2D 8370.1710.011 1.83 (1.11-5.84)0.52 (0.35-1.18)5.61 (3.50-8.37)0.267 (0.160-0.583) 0.7906 BD 7710.1110.012 6.09 (4.66-11.02)1.32 (0.93-1.72)15.98 (12.98-18.59) 0.287 (0.187-0.570) 0.7283 CD 8930.1110.011 6.09 (4.66-11.02)1.32 (0.93-1.72)15.98 (12.98-18.59) 0.287 (0.187-0.570) 0.8437

13.  All CNG to gasoline  All CNG Diesel-oil  Experts’ Judgement GNC PC and SUV (20% to Gasoline 80% to Diesel-oil) CNG LDT and TX (100% to Diesel-oil)

15.  15% LDV substituted or retrofitted to CNG  30% LDV substituted or retrofitted to CNG  15% Urban Buses running on CNG  30% Urban Buses running on CNG  Argentina:  Further incorporation of CNG by category

18. Emissions projections: The fleet is supposed to increase by a factor of 1.8 until 2025 PC : further incorporation of CNG up to 30%, and of Diesel vehicles up to 15%, reduction of gasoline PC fleet TX : further incorporation of CNG up to 65%, no longer gasoline vehicles Urban Buses : incorporation of CNG vehicles, up to 5%. Source: Argentina: Diagnostico, Prospectivas y Lineamientos para definir Estrategias posibles ante el Cambio Climatico, Fundacion Bariloche, 2008

19.  CNG has been incorporated in South America mainly due to its lower market price mainly for commercial vehicles (TX & LDT), not for environmental purposes.  It is worth highlighting the different specific emissions of developed and developing countries, and the resulting underestimation of developing countries’ emissions by employing the non representative emission factors.  A local emission factors database is hereby presented, having combined the campaigns that took place in the analyzed region performed on local vehicles under local driving conditions.  Megacities‘ comparative analysis show that with the incorporation of CNG, the most significant reductions of CO and NMVOC are presented by Sao Paulo; Buenos Aires presents the higher reduction of PM and SO 2 ; Santiago has the highest increment of NO x emissions.  Gasoline or Diesel Oil scenarios have almost opposite effects on emissions: › Emissions of GHG decrease with the increment of the diesel oil fleet, while PM and SO 2 increase considerably; › Emissions of criteria pollutants decrease when gasoline is replaced by CNG, except for NO x emissions.  The analysis of the resulting emissions is still under study mainly due to the high level of uncertainty associated to the EFs of CH 4 and N 2 O.  The selection of the fuel to be replaced is a key factor of the resulting reductions thus local elicitation is reauired  Argentina’s future emissions depend entirely on the selection of the fuels of the future. Mitigation studies for the region incorporate CNG to the future fleet, and these premliminary results would denotate a decrease in criteria pollutants and a possible neglectable reduction of GHG emissions.

20. Thank you! Ariela D’ Angiola ariela.dangiola@latmos.ipsl.fr dangiola@cnea.gov.ar