1. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com SeaView Fishing El Niño vs. The Blob vs. PDO Which Will Win and How Will This Affect the 2016 Season? https://youtu.be/WtneCL8iA2A Pacific Decadal Oscillation

2. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Topics: Definitions – What are we talking about here? Present status of El Niño, The Blob, PDO – Which is ‘winning’? Global Warming? Albacore catch through the years ……vs. El Niño and PDO What’s it look like now out there? Should I fish in the Bering Sea? What’s new with SeaView?

3. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Disclaimers Mark is not a climatologist (even the experts are unsure about predicting such phenomena as PDO) Most of what you will see and learn is the result of other people’s great research and work found online (great web links in these topics are listed at the end of the presentation) These slides are text-heavy – get your glasses out!

4. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: El Niño A climatic event occurring every two to seven years, characterized by warming of surface waters and reduced upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water off the western coast of South America, causing die-offs of plankton and fish and influencing jet stream winds, altering storm tracks and affecting the climate over much of the world. Warm water ‘pushes’ up the coast of western North America creating above normal temperatures in the Eastern North Pacific Part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): term used to describe warm (El Niño), cool (La Niña) as well as “Neutral” ocean-atmosphere events in the tropical Pacific as well as the Southern Oscillation the atmospheric component of these phenomena.

5. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: The Blob During the winter of 2013-14, researcher Nicholas Bond (University of Washington) noticed a large pool of unusually warm water based in the south central Gulf of Alaska. Within the topmost 300 feet of the ocean, temperatures were as much as 2.5°C (4.0°F) above average in February 2014. By springtime, this warmth had spread east to the coasts of Washington and Oregon. In a report to the Washington state climatologist, Bond dubbed the region of unusually warm water “The Blob.” http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/blob-watch-the-latest-on-the-northeast-pacifics-unusual-warmth

6. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: The Blob High surface pressure and light winds helped produce the original mid- latitude Blob. The persistence of the high pressure at both surface and upper levels was dubbed the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013 in December of that year by Stanford University doctoral student Daniel Swain at his California Weather Blog. Like the Blob itself, the Ridge persisted as an identifiable feature during 2014 and 2015 as its location evolved. Swain also related the Ridge to the intensification of the ferocious multi-year drought that began in 2011 in California.Ridiculously Resilient Ridge of 2013California Weather Blog Basically the persistence of a high pressure ridge in the north eastern Pacific http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/blob-watch-the-latest-on-the-northeast-pacifics-unusual-warmth Click here to watch video

7. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: Regime Shifts and the PDO North Pacific Regime Shift:, Bakun (2004) uses ecosystem regime shifts to signify drastic large time-and space-scale shifts in abundances of major components of marine biological communities and climatic regime shifts to signify apparent transitions between differing average climatic characteristics. A particularly well known North Pacific climate index, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), reduces the spatial and temporal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) for the entire North Pacific into a single Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) spatial field and principal component (PC) timeseries. It bears noting that single indices such as the PDO can at times be inadequate for characterizing the North Pacific (e.g., Bond et al., 2003). http://www.regimeshifts.org/about/item/406-north-pacific-oceanhttp://www.regimeshifts.org/about/item/406-north-pacific-ocean, http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf

8. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: Regime Shifts and the PDO Two graphical examples of the warm (“PDO pattern dominated”) and cool “Victorial pattern dominated) phases of the North Pacific PDO

9. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: Regime Shifts and the PDO Lets simplify! In ecology, regime shifts are large, abrupt, persistent changes in the structure and function of a system.ecology Regime shifts in 1976/77, 1988/89, 1997/1998?, more recently? In October 2003, the North Pacific Marine Science Organization was asked by the United States government for scientific advice on the implications of the 1998 regime shift for North Pacific fisheries. Following the strong 1997-1998 El Niño, the climate of the North Pacific took a rapid and striking change, the persistence of which is suggestive of a regime shift. Previous regime shifts have had serious implications for marine ecosystems, and consequently for fish populations and the fishing industry. Researchers are unclear/unsure about whether we are experiencing a regime shift in the North Pacific now or in the recent past. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_shifthttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regime_shift, https://pices.int/publications/brochures/PICES%20Advisory%20Report.pdf

10. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Definitions: Regime Shifts and the PDO Lets simplify! PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered over the mid-latitude Pacific basin. One indicator of a North Pacific Regime Shift http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/%28/home/alexeyk/mydata/TSsvd.in%29readfile/.SST/.PDO/ warm phase cool phase

11. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Blob  El Niño  La Niña 2015 El Niño strongest since 1997/1998 What is the present ENSO situation? A strong El Niño is present and is weakening. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50% chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution -status-fcsts-web.pdf http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution -status-fcsts-web.pdf Blob appears to have subsided or disappeared altogether Weekly SST Anomalies for the past 52 weeks Click here to see animation of past 52 weeks of SSTA

12. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Regime Shift? PDO? 1976/1977: PDO Changed to warm phase 1988/1989: A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed. Shift to cool phase Relatively short shift to warm phase in mid 1990s 1997/1998: Several changes in sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift. The SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed as the PDO changed back to a cool "anchovy" phase.salmonanchovysardine Shift to warm phase in 2014 or just El Niño? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation

13. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Regime Shift? PDO? Predicting PDO shifts is difficult. NOAA’s forecast products do not include PDO at this time. Much of PDO predictability arises from ENSO and global trends https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillationhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

14. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Blob  El Niño  La Niña…. PDO? SUMMARY: Looks like the ‘winner’ might be La Niña. The Blob probably gone for a while, El Niño probably shifting to neutral and then maybe La Niña, PDO in warm phase or simply showing signs from strong El Niño… maybe shifting to cool phase, but difficult to forecast.

15. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing? ONI: NOAA-NWS Oceanic Niño Index Red years show positive ONI during the fishing season (warm periods), and blue years show negative ONI (cold periods) during the fishing season http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ products/analysis_monitoring/e nsostuff/ensoyears.shtml

16. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing? U.S. albacore catch/CPUE plotted by year. El Niño years are in red. Neutral years are black and La Niña years are blue. Source of data: http://pacfin.psmfc.org/data/legacy-pacfin-reports/ Mark starts providing SeaView data to fleet

17. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing? U.S. albacore catch/CPUE plotted by year. CPUE (blue line) in this graph represented as Metric Tons per # of Vessel Trips Source of data: http://pacfin.psmfc.org/data/legacy-pacfin-reports/

18. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing? Solid lines = confirmed PDO phase shifts Dashed lines = less prominent phase shifts Higher CPUE years appear to be during ENSO Neutral years rather than El Niño or La Niña years. PDO appears to have no significant effect.

19. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com U.S. albacore Catch/Vessel Day 2010 vs. 2014. Plotted over average SST May- November for each year. Larger circles = higher CPUE. SST range is ~45°-73°. Note northern catches in 2014 (probably similar in 2015). Credit: NOAA-SWFC for Catch Data 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing?

20. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com U.S. albacore Catch/Vessel Day 2010 vs. 2014. Plotted over average SST May- November for each year. Larger circles = higher CPUE. SST range is ~45°-73°. Overall more fish caught in 2014 and higher CPUE. Some vey high catches in 2010, but 35 more data points, high standard deviation and high catch variability. More consistent in 2014. Credit: NOAA-SWFC for Catch Data 20142010 OK…..So How Does This All Affect Albacore Fishing?

21. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com What’s It Look Like Out There NOW? SST as of 03/18 – 2011 through 2016 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

22. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Summary El Niño subsiding Blob going or gone Regime Shift/PDO continue ‘warm phase’ started ~2014? No obvious effect on CPUE Global climate change probably plays a role, but direct effect difficult to quantify, but probably no fishery back down in Southern California as was many years ago Unlikely 2016 fishing will be “up in Alaska” in significant numbers In El Niño switches to La Niña, catches could suffer. If neutral, catches could be good

23. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com What’s New With SeaView? GPS Connectivity ‘fix’ Single satellite overpass plankton imagery posted earlier Super high resolution VIIRS SST and Plankton imagery (750 m/pixel) Compatibility with SatLink GPS buoys system HYCOM model cloud-free SST forecast imagery * *When available – forecasts posted 3-5 times per week *Probably 3 or 5-day forecasts

24. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Thank you! Ocean Imaging-SeaViewFishing, 303-948-5272, www.seaviewfishing.com References and Useful Sites El Niño: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts- web.pdfhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts- web.pdf http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml The Blob: https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/ http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/blob-watch-the-latest-on-the-northeast-pacifics- unusual-warmthhttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/blob-watch-the-latest-on-the-northeast-pacifics- unusual-warmth https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/view-video-presentations-from-the-2nd-pacific- anomalies-workshop-january-20-21-2016/https://alaskapacificblob.wordpress.com/2016/02/04/view-video-presentations-from-the-2nd-pacific- anomalies-workshop-january-20-21-2016/ http://www.mercurynews.com/central-coast/ci_29218739/pacific-ocean-blob-is-gone-but-not-its More on next slide

25. 2016 www.seaviewfishing.com Thank you! Ocean Imaging-SeaViewFishing, 303-948-5272, www.seaviewfishing.com More References and Useful Sites PDO: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/foci/publications/2008/overN667.pdf http://www.regimeshifts.org/about/item/406-north-pacific-ocean https://pices.int/publications/brochures/PICES%20Advisory%20Report.pdf http://ingrid.ldeo.columbia.edu/%28/home/alexeyk/mydata/TSsvd.in%29readfile/.SST/.PDO/ http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fe/estuarine/oeip/da-sea-surface-temp.cfm https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation Fisheries Data: http://pacfin.psmfc.org/data/legacy-pacfin-reports/ http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/HMS-SAFE-Table-3.htm