1. EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (EWS) APRIL 21, 2016 New Mexico’s

2. Dropping out Currently, appx. 49 high school students drop out of NM schools each school day. NM’s 2015 graduation rate is 68.6%—one of the lowest rates in the USA.

3. What can we use to predict risk?

4. What is an Early Warning System? An ESW relies of readily available data housed at a school – To predict which students are at risk of missing key educational milestones – Target resources to support off-track students – Examine patterns and identify school climate issues

5. Implementation Pathway

6. ABC’s Of Future Dropouts A A ATTENDANCE Less than 90% attendance in HS or 80% in MS B B BEHAVIOR At least one unsatisfactory behavior C C COURSE PERFORMANCE DFMathematicsEnglish Any D or F in either Mathematics or English Sources: Allensworth & Easton (2005, 2007); Balfanz, Herzong, & MacIver (2007); Bruce, Bridgeland, Fox, & Balfanz (2011); Heppen & Therriault (2008); and Jerald (2006).

7. College and Career Ready

8. Research supported Dr. Robert Balfanz from Johns Hopkins University Absent effective intervention, there is a 75 percent chance that a sixth-grade child in a high-poverty school will later drop out of high school if: The student attends less than 80 percent of the time Fails either English Language Arts or Math Receives an unsatisfactory behavior mark in at least one class

9. Data Driven Three factors:  Combine A-B-C into a single report for every student  Utilize teams to explore the data – Team engages students and parents in early intervention efforts

10. The EWS Process

11. The SAT approach Includes representation from administration, teaching, and non-teaching staff Team composes a data-based “support” or “focus” list of students Examines patterns, determines need for interventions, and develops new interventions

12. PED EWS DASHBOARD Use the EWS tool

13. EWS New Mexico’s Vision Provide schools with the tools to rapidly and reliably identify students who have very low odds of graduating through specific key indicators. Support can then be provided through highly effective interventions, early enough in their educational experience that there is sufficient time to intervene. Indicators: – Attendance – Behavior – Course failures

14. EWS Pick Lists (STARS)

15. DRILL-DOWNS Interpret the EWS Data

16. EWS Snapshot Quintin Slate 1000 Bedrock Eugene Stoneman Stoneman

17. Specific Attendance Example 1000 Bedrock Lou Diamond

18. Behavior Infractions Detail 1000 Bedrock Gary Granite 123456 Stoneman, Eugene

19. Course Performance Detail 1000 Bedrock Pebbles Flintstone 123456 Stoneman, Eugene

20. SBA Details 1000 Bedrock Becky Basalt 123456 Stoneman, Eugene

21. Special Education Details Lance Lava Quintin Slate 123456 Stoneman, Eugene

22. INTERVENTIONS Assign and Provide

23. Interventions Start with data on attendance, behavior, and course grades Design interventions at the right level – Whole school initiatives – Small group interventions – Individual interventions

24. Pilot Site Data Most common school wide interventions A.Phone calls home B.Caught doing something good C.Flexible grouping

25. Pilot Site Data Most common attendance interventions – Parent night/orientation – Phone calls home – Progress letters – Attendance parties/socials

26. Pilot Site Data Most common behavior interventions – One on one meetings – Goal setting/behavior plans – Report card conferences – Positive notes home

27. Pilot Site Data Most common course performance interventions – Tutoring/homework help – Certificates/awards – Advisory periods – College field trips

28. CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT Monitor students and refine the process

29. What works? Regular review of data helps see what works at the student level Annual intensive to focus and revise the process

30. GETTING STARTED

31. Research Balfanz, R., Herzog, L., & MacIver, D. (2007). Preventing student disengagement and keeping students on the graduation path in urban middle-grades schools: Early identification and effective interventions.Educational Psychologist, 42(4), 223–235. Bruce, M., Bridgeland, J. H., Fox, J. H., & Balfanz, R. (2011). On track for success: The use of early warning indicator and intervention systems to build a grad nation. Washington, DC: Everyone Graduates Center. Heppen, J., & Therriault, S. (2008). Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts. Washington, DC: National High School Center.

32. DIY Resources

33. Training Available for New Sites June 8 – 9, 2016; Hotel Andaluz, Albuquerque Teams-administrator, counselor, and a teacher Workshop topics include how to: – implement an effective Early Warning System (EWS) – identify students at-risk for dropping out – identify effective interventions (attendance, behavior, and course performance) – align the EWS to college and career readiness

34. Questions?

35. Contact Information Elaine Perea, PhD 505-827-6715 Elaine.Perea@state.nm.us

36. Research & Reading Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2005). The on-track indicator as a predictor of high school graduation. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/p78.pdf http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/p78.pdf Allensworth, E., & Easton, J. (2007). What matters for staying on-track and graduating in Chicago public high schools: A close look at course grades, failures, and attendance in the freshman year. Chicago, IL: Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved from http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/07%20What%20 Matters%20Final.pdf http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/07%20What%20 Matters%20Final.pdf Annenberg Institute for School Reform, Brown University; John W. Gardner Center for Youth and Their Communities, Stanford University; & University of Chicago Consortium on Chicago School Research. (2014). Beyond college eligibility: A new framework for promoting college readiness.Seattle, WA: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Retrieved from http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/FrameworkNarrat ive.CRIS_.pdf http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/sites/default/files/publications/FrameworkNarrat ive.CRIS_.pdf

37. Balestreri, K., Sambolt, M., Duhon, C., Smerdon, B., & Harris, J. (2014). The college and career readiness and success organizer. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research. Retrieved from http://www.ccrscenter.org/sites/default/files/College%20and%20Career% 20Readiness%20and%20Success%20Organizer%20Brief_FINAL.pdf http://www.ccrscenter.org/sites/default/files/College%20and%20Career% 20Readiness%20and%20Success%20Organizer%20Brief_FINAL.pdf Balfanz, R., Herzog, L., & MacIver, D. (2007). Preventing student disengagement and keeping students on the graduation path in urban middle-grades schools: Early identification and effective interventions. Educational Psychologist, 42(4), 223–235. Retrieved from http://new.every1graduates.org/wp- content/uploads/2012/03/preventing_student_disengagement.pdf http://new.every1graduates.org/wp- content/uploads/2012/03/preventing_student_disengagement.pdf

38. Bruce, M., Bridgeland, J. H., Fox, J. H., & Balfanz, R. (2011). On track for success: The use of early warning indicator and intervention systems to build a grad nation. Washington, DC: Everyone Graduates Center. Retrieved from http://new.every1graduates.org/wp- content/uploads/2012/03/on_track_for_success.pdfhttp://new.every1graduates.org/wp- content/uploads/2012/03/on_track_for_success.pdf Bridgeland, J. M., DilulioJr., J. J., & Morison, K. B. (2006): The silent epidemic: Perspectives of high school dropouts. Washington, DC: Civic Enterprises LLC. Retrieved from https://docs.gatesfoundation.org/Documents/thesilentepidemic3- 06FINAL.pdf https://docs.gatesfoundation.org/Documents/thesilentepidemic3- 06FINAL.pdf

39. Carnevale, A. P., Smith, N., & Strohl, J. (2012). Help wanted: Projections of jobs and education requirements through 2018.Washington, DC: Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce. Retrieved from https://georgetown.app.box.com/s/ursjbxaym2np1v8mgrv7https://georgetown.app.box.com/s/ursjbxaym2np1v8mgrv7 Dynarski, M., Clarke, L., Cobb, B., Finn, J., Rumberger, R., & Smink, J. (2008). Dropout prevention(NCEE 2008-4025). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance. Retrieved from http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/pdf/practice_guides/dp_pg_090308.pdf http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/pdf/practice_guides/dp_pg_090308.pdf Hein, V., Smerdon, B., & Sambolt, M. (2013). Predictors of postsecondary success. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research. Retrieved from http://www.ccrscenter.org/sites/default/files/CCRS%20Center_Predictors %20of%20Postsecondary%20Success_final_0.pdf http://www.ccrscenter.org/sites/default/files/CCRS%20Center_Predictors %20of%20Postsecondary%20Success_final_0.pdf

40. Heppen, J., & Therriault, S. (2008). Developing early warning systems to identify potential high school dropouts. Washington, DC: National High School Center. Retrieved from http://www.betterhighschools.org/docs/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystems Guide_081408.pdf http://www.betterhighschools.org/docs/IssueBrief_EarlyWarningSystems Guide_081408.pdf Jerald, C. (2006). Identifying potential dropouts: Key lessons for building an early warning data system. Washington, DC: Achieve Inc. Julian, T. (2012). Work-life earnings by field of degree and occupation for people with a bachelor’s degree: 2011. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Lebow, M., Harris, J., & Smerdon, B. (2012). The college and career development organizer. Washington, DC: National High School Center. Retrieved from http://www.betterhighschools.org/CCR/documents/NHSC_CCROrganizer_ 2012.pdf http://www.betterhighschools.org/CCR/documents/NHSC_CCROrganizer_ 2012.pdf

41. Soland, J., Hamilton, L. S., & Stecher, B. M. (2014). Measuring 21st century competencies: Guidance for educators. New York, NY: Asia Society: Global Cities Education Network. Retrieved from http://asiasociety.org/files/gcen-measuring21cskills.pdf http://asiasociety.org/files/gcen-measuring21cskills.pdf Strong American Schools. (2008). Diploma to nowhere. Washington, DC: Author. Retrieved from http://www.broadeducation.org/asset/1128- diploma%20to%20nowhere.pdfhttp://www.broadeducation.org/asset/1128- diploma%20to%20nowhere.pdf