1. Nuclear Energy: Challenges and Direction Mark Pierson, Ph.D. Associate Professor Nuclear Engineering Program Mechanical Engineering Department October 20, 2011 Virginia Tech Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station SESAPS 2011

2. 2 Nuclear power is reliable, cheap, and stable compared to fossil-fueled power plants North Anna, Virginia, Nuclear Power Plant

3. 3 Nuclear power plants provide about 20% of our electricity U.S. Sources of Electricity (2010) Data Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Report 2010

4. 4 There are 104 current operating reactors at 65 sites in 31 states U.S. Nuclear Power Plants Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute

5. 5 U.S. is world’s top producer of nuclear energy Top 10 Nuclear Generating Countries : billions kWh 2010 Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

6. 6 Nuclear power production is now very reliable U.S. Nuclear Industry Capacity Factors, 1971 – 2010 Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

7. 7 Nuclear power has the highest on-line availability in the industry U.S. Capacity Factors by Fuel Type (2010) Source of Table: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org Fuel Type Average Capacity Factors (%) Nuclear91.2 Coal (Steam Turbine)65.4 Gas (Combined Cycle)45.8 Gas (Steam Turbine)12.9 Oil (Steam Turbine)8.9 Hydro29.4 Wind29.1 Solar17.7

8. 8 Since 2000, nuclear power is the cheapest method of electricity production U.S. Electricity Production Costs, 1995-2010, In 2010 cents per kilowatt-hour Source of Table: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

9. 9 Nuclear power production costs are not as sensitive to fuel costs as fossil-fueled plants Fuel as a Percentage of Electric Power Production Costs (2010) Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org Conversion Fabrication Waste Fund Enrichment Uranium

10. 10 While the spot price of uranium has been variable over last 7 years… Current U 3 O 8 spot price at $52.75/lb, week of Oct 17, 2011 Source of Figure: Ux Consulting Company, LLC, www.uxc.comwww.uxc.com

11. 11 Cost of fuel for nuclear plants has been stable Monthly Fuel Cost to U.S. Electric Utilities, 1995 – 2010 In 2010 cents per kilowatt-hour Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

12. 12 Because nuclear power plants are an such an asset, utilities have requested new licenses for 28 reactors at 18 sites A majority of new plants will be in the Southeast Source: www.nrc.govwww.nrc.gov

13. 13 A nuclear renaissance? A great employment opportunity:  Graying workforce, 30% retirement eligible  One of higher starting salaries for new engineers  Virginia Tech will soon offer Master’s and Ph.D. degrees in nuclear engineering as well as an undergraduate minor  Graduate courses offered via distance learning and online AREVA NP Headquarters, Paris, France Source: www.areva-np.comwww.areva-np.com

14. 14 New generation power plants built over the next two decades will be even safer  Simple passive safety systems  Increased plant operating margins  Reduced actions required by the operator  Fewer systems, valves, piping, and pumps which could fail  Additional water volume in reactor vessel for core cooling Westinghouse’s AP 1000 Pressurized Water Reactor, to be built at Vogtle, GA.

15. 15 Nuclear power provides the largest source of emission-free electricity in U.S. U.S. Sources of Emission-free Electricity (2010) Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

16. 16 Comparison of life cycle emissions Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per Gigawatt-hour Source of Figure: Nuclear Energy Institute, www.nei.orgwww.nei.org

17. 17 What about the nuclear waste issue?  If all 60,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel from the last 40 years were stacked on a football field, it would only be 10 yards high  Most used fuel from nuclear power plants is stored in steel- lined concrete pools filled with water, like the one to the left  When full capacity of the storage pools is reached, fuel is stored in airtight steel or concrete-and-steel containers  About half of the reactor sites have reached full storage pool capacity and are storing fuel above ground Spent Fuel Pool Dry Cask Storage

18. 18 In summary, today’s nuclear power is not your parent’s nuclear power  Safer, more reliable, cheaper electricity, more secure, zero carbon dioxide emissions  New plants being built in the next decade will be even safer and more reliable  Need to solve the spent fuel problem

19. 19 What happens after Fukushima Daiichi natural disaster? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2011/mar/14/fukushima-nuclear-plant-reactor-explosion-video

20. 20 U.S. public opinion of nuclear energy fell after Fukushima but is now reversing Luntz Global survey on behalf of Nuclear Energy Institute

21. 21 Survey results six months after Fukushima by Bisconti Research with GfK Roper are promising  62% favored used of nuclear energy for electricity generation. Those strongly favoring nuclear energy outnumbered those strongly opposed by two-to-one.  67% rate U.S. nuclear power plant safety as high  59% agree that we should definitely build more nuclear power plants in the U.S. in the future  85% agree that we should renew the licenses of those nuclear power plants that continue to meet federal safety standards  67% agree that it would be acceptable to build another nuclear reactor at the closest nuclear power plant to them

22. 22 What are some of the future expected trends in nuclear energy?  Improve plants based on lessons learned from Fukushima  Increase passive safety over active safety  Expansion of nuclear energy in India and China  Introduction of nuclear energy into Middle Eastern countries http://www.rightattitudes.com/index.php?s=macroeconomic+trends

23. 23 Game-changing technologies are on the horizon such as small modular reactors  10 - 300 MWe compared to 1000 - 1600 MWe in current new designs  Factory assembly line production with learning curve to mass produce at lower cost  Buried in the ground for shielding, security and safety  Ultra-safe by design and by size

24. 24 Game-changing technologies are on the horizon such as accelerator-driven subcritical systems  Produces electricity from natural uranium or spent Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel without reprocessing  Can solve the LWR spent fuel problem GEM  STA R @ VT

25. 25 Additional directions will be needed  Emphasis on nuclear safeguards & nonproliferation (as more nations get into the game)  Use high-temperature reactors for non-energy purposes  Desalination  Process heat  Coal gasification or liquefaction  Shale fracking for natural gas

26. 26 Nuclear science and engineering becomes more interdisciplinary  Nuclear medicine, medical physics, radiation transport, nuclear security, nuclear forensics, nano-nuclear science, policy development

27. 27 What is the future of fusion energy?  Fusion for electricity generation is still way off in the future  Nevertheless fusion can be used as a cheap source of neutrons  This will lead to fusion- fission hybrid reactors which may supplement the accelerator-driven subcritical reactors Virginia Tech’s Inertial Electrostatic Confinement Fusion Reactor

28. 28 Despite Fukushima, opportunities exist  Opportunity often comes disguised in the form of misfortune, or temporary defeat. Napolean Hill