1. Social exclusion in modern Europe Joakim Palme Institute for Futures Studies

2. Social exclusion in modern Europe. What expectations should we have for social inclusion of marginalized groups in the future? Joakim Palme Institute for Futures Studies

3. Macrocomparative perspective

4. Social exclusion is about failing social relations: - Family and friends - Employment

5. Poor housing, poor education, health problems are risk factors but do not define social exclusion

6. History

7. Rowntree’s Poverty Cycle

8. Ideas about redistribution R H Tawney - Welfare State as a Strategy of Equality vs. G Tullock and J Le Grand - middle class inclusion damages the poor

9. Strategies of redistribution Targeted Model Basic Security Model State Corporatist Model Encompassing Model Robin Hood Simple Egalitarianism Within Group Redistribution Mattew’s principle: Give to those who have

10. The ”Paradox of Redistribution” If you really want to help the poor, include the middle class in the benefit systems, not only as tax payers Korpi, Walter and Joakim Palme.1998. ‘The Paradox of Redistribution and Strategies of Equality: Welfare State Institutions, Inequality and Poverty in the Western Countries.’ American Sociological Review 63:661-87.

11. ”Policies exclusively designed for the poor tend to be poor policies.” Amartya Sen

12. ”Do not let the poor stand alone.” Walter Korpi

13. New Poverty Cycles

14. Common European Trends First Marriage Rate down Age at First Marriage up Age at First Birth up Extramarital Births up Total Divorce Rate up Total Fertility Rate down Female Labour Force Participation up Inequalities up Ageing: More old people !

15. Common European Trends First Marriage Rate down Age at First Marriage up Age at First Birth up Extramarital Births up Total Divorce Rate up Total Fertility Rate down Female Labour Force Participation up Inequalities up Ageing: More old people ! Common Futures? More people above 80 years of age Elderly dependency rates Population decline!? Fertility? Migration? Continued pattern in family change?

16. New Social Risks?!

17. Two structural processes are putting the European welfare states under heavy pressure: the ageing of populations, which puts increased pressure on intergenerational redistribution. the globalisation of the economy, with the consequences for increased mobility of tax bases.

18. Rethinking social policy in ageing societies The debate on ageing issues has been overly focussed on pension reforms and savings How social policy interact with fertility, education and labour supply (the future tax base) is of vital concern We need to reform the system of social protection in order to make it sustainable for the future

19. The welfare state in crisis

20. How to protect the rights whilst controling the costs

21. Framework for reform: Increase the number of tax payers! Incentives; avoid poverty traps by using universal benefits and avoid means-testing, Human capital; lifelong learning starts at age 1 Social services; child care, elderly care to empower Employment opportunities; goals and priorities of macro-economic policy, and rehabilitation

22. Modernise family policy - to promote inclusion

23. Policy and policy design matters! If politicians do not respond; European achievements are jeopardized Modernisation is about: Gender and work in ageing societies Extend social inclusion goals in terms of the situation of children and youth Rights and responsibilities of European citizens

24. Family policy, female economic activity, child poverty and fertility Family policy Female labour force participation Child poverty Fertility ++/-- - - +

25. Education and Growth: Macro model The statistically significant relations –Education expenses have a positive impact on GDP/capita –GDP/capita has a positive impact on average years of education but a negative impact on the GDP share of education expenses –Education expenses have a negative impact on fertility.

26. In order to design social policies that are sustainable for the future we need to put our children and youth first!

27. Education and human capital formation Education as investing in the future School performance: level and distribution Social background and school performance Life-long learning starts year one Parental labour force participation and performance Gendered performance, and sustainable family policy in ageing societies

28. Variation in student performance on the combined reading literacy scale, mean score and standard deviation Source: PISA (2000) OECD

29. European Social Model and the Open Method of Coordination Lisbon Strategy on Employment Sustainable pension systems Health insurance Social inclusion indicators Why not? Family policy and the rights of children

30. The European Social Model Goal ”The European social model is about social inclusion and equality of opportunity.” Barrosso July 12, 2005

31. The European Social Model Goal ”The European social model is about social inclusion and equality of opportunity.” Barrosso July 12, 2005 Strategy Human capital response to ageing societies Middle class inclusion Universalism Gender: Care and work Quality and quantity of employment Managing migration Equality of conditions Focus on children and youth

32. Global perspectives

33. Beyond the ’Old’ Conventional Wisdom Welfare state expansion to promote social cohesion in countries with open economies New context: deregulated financial markets and mobile global capital The return on capital (profit) has to be on a competitive level ’Free to chose’ the size of the ’social wage’ as part of the total wage cost

34. Public policy and migration Global population development and migration Migration and development policy: example health care workers Millenium Development Goals: Reduce poverty by 50% Diasporas as a resource base Education and labour markets common

35. What expectations should we have for social inclusion of marginalized groups in the future?

36. We should make sure that we base our policy recommendations on a knowledge- based and realistic assessment of how the world works, not on prejudice and not on wishful thinking.

37. Outreaching work to combat social exclusion should build social relations: family, friends and employment And combat the risk factors: poor education, poor health, poor housing