1. Boston’s Triple Revolution Demographic, Industrial, and Spatial Change in Greater Boston 1950-2007 Professor Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public Policy Northeastern University October 2008

2. How Did Boston Rank? 1970 - 1980  Most distressed and declining cities: Atlanta, BOSTON, Cleveland, Dayton, Hartford, Philadelphia, Newark, and Trenton  BOSTON and Cleveland are in the most disadvantaged third of all nine components of the city distress and decline indexes.  City Distress Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)  City Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)  SMSA Decline Index: BOSTON -4 (Worst)  Disparity Index: BOSTON -5 (Worst)  Source: Bradbury, Downs, and Small, Urban Decline and the Future of American Cities (Brookings, 1982)

9. Non-White: 50.8%

21. The Industrial Revolution

24. Key Industrial Sectors  Higher Education  Health Care  Financial Services  High Tech/Information Services  Defense  Biotechnology/Nanotechnology

26. The Spatial Revolution

30. Boston: High Cost of Living

31. Top Decile: Metro Area Cost of Living Boston $ 64,656 Washington (D.C. portion) $ 61,440 Nassau-Suffolk, NY $ 60,780 Stamford-Norwalk, CN$ 60,720 Lawrence (Mass. portion) $ 59,280 New York, NY$ 58,656 Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA $ 58,236 San Francisco, CA $ 57,624 Worcester (Mass. portion) $ 55,704 Springfield, MA$ 55,320 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN$ 54,948 Nashua, NH $ 54,852 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA$ 53,808 Oakland, CA $ 53,412 San Jose, CA $ 52,800 Pittsfield, MA $ 52,632 Rochester, MN $ 51,288 Monmouth-Ocean, NJ$ 50,736 San Diego, CA $ 50,088 Newark, NJ$ 49,992 New Haven-Meriden, CN $ 49,848 Honolulu, HI $ 49,824 Philadelphia (Pa. portion) $ 49,716 Boulder-Longmont, CO$ 49,596 Bridgeport, CN$ 49,272 Manchester, NH $ 49,152 Santa Rosa, CA$ 48,924 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY $ 48,900 Hartford, CN$ 48,684 Trenton, NJ$ 48,576 Rochester, NY$ 48,540 Economic Policy Institute: Family Budget Calculator Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

32. Boston Family Budget – 4 Persons  Housing Costs: 7 th Highest MSA  Child Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Health Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Personal Care: 6 th Highest MSA  Fed/State Tax: 2 nd Highest MSA  Total Cost: 1 st Highest MSA Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget Calculator, 2005 Among 304 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

33. A Tale of Two Cities Basic Budget 2 Parents, 2 Children Boston Monthly Housing$1,266 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$1,298 Monthly Transportation$ 321 Monthly Health Care$ 592 Monthly Other Necessity$ 500 Monthly Taxes$ 824 Monthly Total$5,388 Annual Total $64,656 Raleigh-Durham- Chapel Hill Monthly Housing$ 779 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$ 866 Monthly Transportation$ 358 Monthly Health Care$ 368 Monthly Other Necessity$ 369 Monthly Taxes$ 350 Monthly Total$3,677 Annual Total $ 44,124 A Tale of Two Cities Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”

34. CURP Study of Housing, Employment and Population  Metro areas with highest cost of living are suffering slow employment growth or outright job loss  Metro areas with the highest cost of living are suffering for net out-migration of domestic population  Paradox: The shortage of housing supply can lead to a future sharp decline in housing prices … as jobs and workers leave the state

35. Low PriceHigh Price Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas 0.95% 2.91% 2.29% 0.86% 1.53% 0.68% -0.68% 0.12% -0.62% 1.49%

36. Boston MSA (-4.9%) Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

37. Monthly Housing Cost Employment Change (%) (2000-2004) Boston MSA %∆Emp(2000-2004) = -.1466 +.0000396 Housing Cost (4.07) -2.291E-007 Housing Cost SQ (4.04) N = 245 Adj. R Square =.056

38. Low CostHigh Cost Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -0.21% 0.93% -0.02% 0.84% 1.06% 0.50% 1.09% 1.98% 0.62% 2.53% Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

39. Boston MSA (-5.2%) Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

40. Internal Migration (% Change) Monthly Housing Cost Boston MSA %∆Internal Migration = -.146 +.000399 Housing Costs (7.03) - 2.475E-007 Housing Costs SQ (7.39) N = 304 Adj. R Square =.153

41. Internal Migration (% Change) Monthly Housing Cost Boston MSA %∆Internal Migration = -.146 +.000399 Housing Costs (7.03) - 2.475E-007 Housing Costs SQ (7.39) N = 304 Adj. R Square =.153 San Francisco Stamford-Norwalk San Jose Boston Oakland Nassau-Suffolk

42. -2.12% 0.16% 1.54% 1.40% 2.19% 1.04% 0.60% 0.41% 0.19% 0.39% Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas Boston

43. Projected Percent Change in Households by Age Cohort, 2006-2017 The Future Demographics of Massachusetts Source: U.S. Census Demographic Projections Of a net increase of 193,500 households, 244,600 are projected to be age 55 +

44. The Life & Death of American Cities  Detroit  New Orleans  Boston  Does failure lead to failure?  Does success lead to failure?