2. Impacts of Free Public Transport – An Evaluation Framework Oded Cats Yusak Susilo Jonas Eliasson

3. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Outline 2 Evaluation of policy measures Evaluating Tallinn’s free PT scheme -Research questions -Data sources -Key indicators

4. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Transport Research at KTH 3 395 researchers 39 research groups 17 research centers Department of Transport Science

5. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Example of projects 4 Value of time studies with respect to waiting time, travel time, walking time, transfers, uncertainty, comfort etc. The impacts of ICTs and on-board activities to rail passengers’ travel experience and travel time values Cost-benefit analysis of the underground system in Stockholm Fare schemes in Stockholm and their impacts on passengers and revenues Follow-up studies for LRT and BRT lines Effects of real-time information on passenger decisions under various operational conditions Analysis of alternative incentives schemes for service contracts

6. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Evaluation examples 5 Stockholm congestion charging -Effects on travel behaviour, traffic, congestion, economics, equity, public transport… Real-time control strategies -Impacts on reliability, time savings, crowding, operations Impacts of zero-fare policy for eldery in SW England -Mobility, accessibility, equity, mode shift

7. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Background facts - Tallinn 6 Public transport share -a negative trend, but still substantial Motorization rate -dramatic increase Fares -Account for only a third of the budget -A decrease of 40% on 2003 -Many groups are already exempted The main source for users’ dissatisfaction

8. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Reflection on previous studies 7 Free is a different notion from ’it costs zero’ Higher sensitivty for -Fare increases, off-peak, car price Distinguish substitution from generation effects Need to increase service supply Significant generation effects among specific groups Substantial mode shift from soft modes

9. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Primary evaluation dimensions 8 Overall assessment Social and economic impacts Mobility and accessibility System performance

10. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 (1) Mobility and accessibility 9 How would travel patterns & attitudes change? -Did ridership change? Where? When? -Generation vs. Substitution effects Where do the new trips come from? New trips? Switch from car/walking/cycling? -What are the impacts on travellers perception and attitudes? New opportunities? -Learning process among residents and non-residents?

11. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 (2) System perfomance 10 How would it affect transport system performance? -Reduced road congestion and emissions? -Effects on travel times and relaibility for both cars and PT? -What are the impacts on crowding? -Are there any capacity needs? Is there a need to adjust the supply? -Did it change service satisfaction levels?

12. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 (3) Social and economic aspects 11 What are the social welfare implications? -Which socio-economic groups have increased their mobility? -Who benefits? What are the equity implications? -Potential long-term effects on employment, productivity, urban attractivity? -What are the long-term trends that may be relevant for the prospect of the scheme? (motorization, procurement, finances) -Is it financially sustainable in the long-run?

13. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Overall assessement 12 ”Are the benefits worth the costs?” -Measure and describe benefits Increased accessibility & travel Reduced road congestion and emissions Reduced costs for fare collection and sales Regional economics – employment, productivity Equity – social inclusion for disadvantaged groups -Measure and describe costs Loss of revenues Increased capacity needs / crowding

14. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Suggested evaluation process 13

15. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Data sources 14 GIS layers of the street and public transport networks Automatic vehicle location (AVL) data Automatic passenger counts (APC) data Traffic counts Socio-economic census data Periodical card analysis Annual municipal satisfaction survey

16. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Survey design 15 Mode choice (common, freqeuncy) Travel diary -Origin-Destination, Time, Mode, Distance, Purpose Service satisfaction -Speed, frequency, cost, crowdedness, relaibility… Perception of missed job opportunities Neighborhoods’ attractiveness - Shopping and leisure

17. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Analysis periods 16 Public transport system performance -Before ZFPT; April 2012 -Before ZFPT, after public transport package; October 2012 -Immediately after ZFPT; January 2013 -After ZFPT; April 2013 But then, the next follow up survey would be on October 2013 Travel patterns -Before ZFPT; Fall 2012 -After ZFPT; Fall 2013

18. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) 17 Mobility Mode split Generation vs. Substitution effects Accessibility Job opportunities Speed (car, PT) System performance Operations certainty Reliability (punctuality, regularity) Crowding Level of satisfaction Economics Impacts on usage City attractiveness Fiscal sustainability Population registration

19. Free Public Transport Conference, Tallinn, 26-27 October 2012 Plausible project timeline 18 Jul- Aug Survey design Sep Evaluation framework Oct- Nov Before AVL and APC analysis Dec Network changes analysis Jan- Feb Immediate effect assessment Feb- Apr Before travel survey analysis May- Jul After AVL and APC analysis Aug- Oct System performance conclusions Nov- Jan After travel patterns analysis Jan- Feb Conclusions and recommendations 2012 2013 2014