2. Building a Fit, Fast and Flexible Global e-Learning Economy Professor J C Taylor Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia

3. 1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver: “Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?” Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t.

4. Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause "gales of creative destruction” in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

5. Technological Changes  Steam Power - 1780s to the 1840s  The Railways - 1840s to the 1890s  Electric Power - 1890s to the 1930s  The Motor Car - 1930s to the 1980s  Information Technology - 1980s to ?

6. Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television: 50 million users in 13 years 3. The Internet: 50 million users in 5 years Current prediction: One billion users by the year 2003

7. Internet Access in Australia An estimated 6 million adults (43% of Australia’s adult population) accessed the Internet in the year prior to February 2000. Source: ABS, February 2000

8. Internet Access in Australia The likelihood that an adult is an Internet user decreases dramatically with age. In the 12 months prior to February 2000, 77% of 18-24 year olds accessed the Internet compared to 13% of adults aged 55 or over. Source: ABS, February 2000

9.  167.1 million - USA  27.1 million - Germany  23.4 million - United Kingdom  18.1 million - Italy  11.6 million - Taiwan  9.2 million - Australia Source: Cyberatlas, June 2000 Internet Access at Home

10.  Australia50%  France22%  New Zealand51%  Sweden61%  UK46%  USA60% % With Internet Access at Home Source: A C Nielsen, June 2000

11. e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders 1USA8.73 2 Australia8.29 3 UK8.10 4 Canada8.09 5 Norway8.07 6 Sweden7.98 7 Singapore7.87 8 Finland7.83 9 Denmark7.70 10 Netherlands7.69 11 Switzerland7.67 12 Germany7.51 13 Hong Kong7.45 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

12. e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders 14Ireland7.28 15France7.26 16 (tie)Austria7.22 16 (tie)Taiwan7.22 18Japan7.18 19Belgium7.10 20New Zealand7.00 21South Korea6.97 22Italy6.74 23Israel6.71 24Spain6.43 25Portugal6.21 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

13. e-Readiness Rankings: Followers 26 Greece5.85 27 Czech Republic5.71 28 Hungary5.49 29 Chile5.49 30 Poland5.05 31 Argentina5.01 32 Slovakia4.88 33 Malaysia4.83 34 Mexico4.78 35 South Africa4.74 36 Brazil4.64 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

14. e-Readiness Rankings: Followers 37 Turkey4.51 38 Colombia4.25 39Philippines3.98 40Egypt / Peru3.88 42 Russia3.84 43 Sri Lanka3.82 44 Saudi Arabia3.80 45 India3.79 46 Thailand3.75 47 Venezuela3.62 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

15. e-Readiness Rankings: Laggards 48 Bulgaria3.38 49 China3.36 50 Ecuador / Iran3.30 52 Romania / Ukraine3.20 54 Algeria / Indonesia3.16 56 Nigeria2.91 57 Kazakhstan2.76 58 Vietnam2.76 59 Azerbaijan2.72 60 Pakistan2.66 Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001 e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score

16. Prediction: 'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'. Cairncross (1997)

17. Getting It Wrong  In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that the world market for computers would be approximately five.  In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend why anyone should need a personal computer.

18. “Mr Bell. Thank you for the demonstration. Don’t call us, we’ll call you”.

19. Education must lay the foundation for the success of the global economy.

20. The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”. Fast, Flexible and Fluid

21. Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard --- it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support. Institutional Inertia

22. Why should universities change? Increasing competition on a global scale. Institutional Inertia

23. Increasing Competition Unext (Business education only)   London School of Economics and Political Science   University of Chicago   Carnegie Mellon University   Columbia University   Stanford University

24. Increasing Competition The Higher Education Funding Council and the Department of Education and Employment has asked Treasury to provide an extra £100 million (AU$260 million) to fund the e-University. Britain’s e-University

25. Increasing Competition Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001. The Cambridge e-MBA

26. 791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA. Fast, Flexible and Fluid?

27. Increasing Competition   offers more than 1,000 online courses and has enrolled over 12,000 students. UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net  offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer points when you enrol in an online course.

28.  London School of Economics and Political Science  Cambridge University Press  The British Library  New York Public Library  Columbia University  Smithsonian Institute’s National Museum of Natural History The following six institutions will invest AU$133 million to create an online library: Online Library: Fathom.com

29. Book publishing may again become a cottage industry:  Charles Dickens sold his novels, chapter by chapter, in his own magazine, “Household Words”.  Stephen King published “Riding the Bullet”, for exclusive sale via the Internet at US$2.50 per copy.   400,000 copies were sold on the first day.   King netted over US$463,000.

30. e-Publishing   Frederick Forsyth will publish five short stories online from mid-October 2000.   URL: http://www.onlineoriginals.com   Cost of each story: £2   Forsyth: “If people want to log on and chit chat about the stories, that’s fine.”

31. The Big Picture   Change is the only constant.   Growth is the only certainty.

32. Future Projections  A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years. (Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal http://finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000).   The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

33. Will your organisation survive? Will your organisation prosper? The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

34. University Resources  USQ is a “Public” Australian University set up under State legislation via the “University of Southern Queensland Act”  It receives approximately 65% of its annual income as an “operating grant” from the Federal Government (including HECS payments)  The remaining income is generated from research and enterprise activities

35.  All students20,625  External15,194*  Percentage External 76% *includes currently enrolled off-shore students 3,480 Enrolled Students Semester 1, 2001

36. USQ’s Australian Off-Campus Students Semester 1, 2001  Queensland 8,184  New South Wales & ACT 1,687  Victoria 450  Western Australia 214  South Australia 191  Northern Territory 145  Tasmania 137  Australian’s living overseas 706 TOTAL 11,714

37. USQ’s Off-Shore Students Semester 1, 2001  Singapore 1,165  Malaysia 943  China 340  South Africa 199  Pacific Islands 114  Zimbabwe 93  United Arab Emirates 76  Canada 73  Total, including students from 60 other countries 3,480

38. Semester 2, 2001  A total of 4,767 international students are now enrolled  1,515 additional domestic students have enrolled

39. The Internet has “reached a stage that isn’t so much about vision and proprietary innovation, as about execution and competition”. A Race between Universities Schendler (2000)

40. Watching a race between universities, is like watching elephants play soccer. Fit, Fast and Flexible ? Being the fittest, fastest and most talented elephant is a very good thing to be.

41. Five Generations of Distance Education Technology  The Correspondence Model  The Multimedia Model  The Telelearning Model  The Flexible Learning Model  The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

42. Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity. In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

43. HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL Print First Generation No

44. HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes No FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Print Audiotape Videotape Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL) Interactive video Second Generation No

45. HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES No No No No Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace No No No Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE TELELEARNING MODEL Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Audio-teleconferencing Videoconferencing Audiographic communication Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing Third Generation No

46. THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based access to WWW resources Computer mediated communication (CMC). HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO Yes No Fourth Generation

47. The current applications of fourth generation Internet- based delivery tend to generate resource allocation models similar to tutorial-based on- campus teaching.

48. The underlying resource model is not significantly different from conventional on campus teaching, with a staff member being necessary to manage groups of approximately 20 students to maintain a reasonable quality of interaction and academic support.

49. HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes FLEXIBILITY Time Place Pace Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Interactive multimedia Internet-based access to WWW resources CMC, using automated response systems Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources Fifth Generation Yes

53. XML (eXtensible Markup Language) RENDITIONS: STYLE SHEET: CONTENT REPOSITORY: INPUT: Print Web CD DVD XSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSLXSL XML DTD (Document Type Definition) XML Editor

61. USQOnline demonstration…….

62. “The reflective and explicit nature of the written word is a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking and communicating …… it allows time for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners making connections amongst ideas and constructing coherent knowledge structures”. Garrison (1997)

63. Automating e-Learning   In the USQ approach, many teaching staff make use of discussion groups, which entail students posting “reflections” via the asynchronous CMC system.   Storing such interactions with appropriate metadata tags in a database is technically straightforward, and provides a rich resource for mining by key word/matching, using an automated response system.

64. Incoming “new” question from student Previous Questions Previous Questions Reusable Learning Objects Database Previous Answers Previous Answers “Immediate” feedback to student NO YES New Answer Search / Match Duty Tutor Trigger

65.  Responses can be directed to the whole cohort of students, or at individuals; Automated Response Systems   They have the advantage of providing more- or-less immediate feedback to students at minimal variable cost;   As the intelligent object databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective tuition will tend towards zero.

66. Using intelligent databases, the knowledge generated by solving student problems/enquiries is being progressively stored so that students with similar problems can have their enquiries dealt with immediately through the self-help, automated response capacity of the USQAssist system. e-Learner Relationship Management

67. As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective student support will tend towards zero. USQAssist

70. The PC-ePhone

76. In many universities the development of web-based initiatives is not systemic, but is often the result of random acts of innovation initiated by risk-taking individual academics. Organisational Development

77. USQ’s institution-wide approach reflects one element of the corporate mission statement: “To be a leader in flexible learning and the use of information and communications technologies”. The USQ Approach

78. The USQ approach is to give people: What they want, Where they want it, When they want it. WWW is purely incidental! The USQ approach is to give people: What they want, Where they want it, When they want it. WWW is purely incidental! The USQ Approach

79. As a case study, the USQ experience exemplifies the necessary institution– wide corporate approach for an organization to become “fast, flexible and fluid” as it strives to develop the capacity to implement fifth generation distance education. USQ Case Study

80. The fifth generation model of distance education has the potential to provide students with a valuable, personalized pedagogical experience at much lower cost than traditional approaches to distance education and conventional face-to-face education. The fifth generation model of distance education has the potential to provide students with a valuable, personalized pedagogical experience at much lower cost than traditional approaches to distance education and conventional face-to-face education. 5th Generation

81. If this can be achieved on a sufficiently large scale, then tuition costs can be significantly lowered, thereby engendering much greater access to higher education opportunities to many students throughout the world, who presently cannot afford to pay current prices. 5th Generation

82. In effect, fifth generation distance education is not only less expensive, it also provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost. 5th Generation

83. “Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment”. Marshall McLuhan The e-Revolution

84. “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain. Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself. It must become: open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable open non-hierarchical democratic experimental tightly networked endlessly adaptable

85. To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of - “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) “habitual and radical innovation”. (Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001) “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough

86. Aussie Rules…….OK?

87. “It is easier to create the future than it is to predict it.” (Taylor, 2001) USQ’s 5 th Generation