1. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET Dennis K. Winters Chief, Office of Economic Advisors Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET

2. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET

3. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 3 JOBS RECOVERY HOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES

4. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 4 4 RECESSION COMPARISONS LAGGING ACROSS ALL INDICATORS

5. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 5 Breach May 2015 JOBS RECOVERY OUR BEST ESTIMATES PUT THE BREACH IN 2015

6. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 6 MANAGING RISK WHERE IS THE INCENTIVE TO EXPAND

7. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 7 INVESTMENT GROWTH IS IN PRODUCTIVITY, NOT EXPANSION Source: BEA, OEA

8. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 8 So, what will be the biggest socio-economic policy challenge in the next 20 years?

9. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 9 ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELL WIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?

10. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 10 WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTH BECOMES FLAT Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

11. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 11 "The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines." – Patrick Schillinger, Wisconsin Paper Council President, Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004. NEW ECONOMY HIGHER SKILL SET REQUIRED

12. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 12 TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABY I DON’T THINK SO

13. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET ThenNow Unskilled60% Unskilled 12% 12% Skilled 20% Professional 20% Professional 20% Skilled 68% WorkKeys and the National Career Readiness Certificate are registered trademarks of ACT, Inc. CHANGES IN WORKFORCE SKILL REQUIREMENTS OVER THE LAST FIFTY YEAR

14. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 14 WHAT’S MISSING IN THIS PICTURE TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTE

15. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 15 Entry level jobs with family supporting wages and advancement opportunities require same knowledge foundation and skill set as those entering post-secondary education. Advanced reading Advanced writing Advanced mathematics (Algebra II) Fastest growing occupations earning greater than $30,000 per year, require some post-secondary education. EQUAL SKILLS NOW REQUIRED NO TWO-TRACKING Source: Achieve, Inc, OEA.

16. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 16 DOROTHY

17. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 17 “Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.” – Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation FUTURE EMPLOYERS NEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION

18. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 18 Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003 Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Routine manual Nonroutine analytical Nonroutine interactive WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTS CHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK* Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University * Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles

19. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET Numbers are based on analysis of 18,000 jobs profiled from 2006 to 2010 in the ACT JobPro database. WorkKeys and the National Career Readiness Certificate are registered trademarks of ACT, Inc. ESSENTIAL SKILLS IN TODAY’S WORKPLACE

20. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 20 NEW ECONOMY SCARCITY OF SKILLED WORKERS Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan voiced his concern about a growing earnings gap between highly skilled and unskilled workers: "It's a problem caused basically by our skill mix not keeping up with the technology that our capital stock requires," the Republican Fed chairman said....

21. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 21 MEDIAN FAMILY INCOME BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Source: U.S. Census Bureau

22. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 22 Questions ?

23. April 23, 2014 THE BRUTAL FACTS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET 23 Dennis Winters Phone: 608-267-3262 Email: dennis.winters@dwd.wisconsin.gov Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.govwww.dwd.wisconsin.gov OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oeawww.dwd.wisconsin.gov CONTACT INFORMATION