1. New Measure Proposal Review and Prioritization Jennifer Light, Ryan Firestone, and Christian Douglass Regional Technical Forum February 16, 2016

2. Presentation Overview Today we are seeking RTF decision on allocating resources to two new measures Review the new measure proposal process Discuss two new measure proposals Share plan for addressing new measures in work plan 2 - Background

3. New Measure Proposal Process 3 – Background

4. New Measure Review Process Step 1: Submit proposals to RTF 4 – Background

5. New Measure Review Process Step 2: Internal Review Starts Check for the following: Applicability to the region and utility interest New measure that has not already been de-bunked Existing data available, including estimates of lift required 5 – Background

6. New Measure Review Process Step 3: Scoping the Measure What the CAT/staff is looking for: Is there a clearly defined measure? (Ex: UES, Standard Protocol) What is the anticipated resource lift, including estimation of outside resources to support development? What is the value of RTF development? (Is this a niche opportunity? Is there value in a simplified approach?) How does it fit into the existing work plan, and are there any time considerations from proposers end? 6 – Background

7. New Measure Review Process Step 4: RTF Decision Consider CAT/staff input on value verses lift to determine whether it is a good use of RTF resource. 7 – Background

8. Frequency of RTF Review Every six months – Enables RTF and staff to better weigh the suite of opportunities against the work plan – Helps to inform work plan development for the following year Next RTF review of new measure proposals: August – Would need new measures proposals by July 1 to enable sufficient time for scoping before August meeting 8 – Background

9. 2016 Work Plan Category Subtotal 2016% of total Existing Measure Review & Updates$452,50027% New Measure Development$328,00020% Standardization of Technical Analysis$205,00012% Tool Development$70,0004% Regional Coordination$150,0009% Website, Database support, Conservation Tracking$80,0005% RTF Member Support & Administration$234,20014% RTF Management$143,3009% Total$1,663,000100% 9 – 2016 Work Plan Assumes sunsetting UES and SPs, maintenance of research measures, and bringing SPs into compliance Assumes development of up to 6 new UES and 4 Standard Protocols Note: Work can shift between categories if needed.

10. Planned Work for 2016 MeasureWork Anticipated Anticipated Meeting Date Resource Needs Guidelines RevisionsUpdate GuidelinesOngoingMedium Weatherization - MultifamilyApprove Planning estimates and Research StrategyMarchLow New Construction - ENERGY STAR Homes MultifamilyApprove Planning estimates and Research StrategyMarch/AprilLow Standard Information Workbook UpdatesUpdate for Seventh Plan AssumptionsMarch/AprilMedium Variable Frequency Drives - Irrigation Pump Motor (SP)Update protocol, as needed (sunset date extension needed)AprilMedium Res Heating/Cooling - Electronic ThermostatsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetime (or deactivate)MayLow Grocery - Display Case LEDsUpdate Proven savings estimates, costs, and lifetimeJuneLow Res DHW - ShowerheadsUpdate Proven savings estimates, costs, and lifetimeJuneMedium Non-Residential Lighting - Retrofits SPDevelop revised protocol (rethinking the structure)JuneHigh Non-Residential Lighting - Code Compliant SPDevelop new protocol, based on structure for retrofits workAfter JuneHigh Res Behavior Impact Evaluation GuidanceDevelop Impact Evaluation Guidance (first of its kind)June/JulyHigh Res DHW - Heat Pump Water HeatersUpdate savings, costs, and lifetime and check in on researchJulyMedium Res Advanced Power Strips - IR-sensingCheck in on researchAugustLow Res Heating/Cooling - Ground Source Heat Pump UpgradesUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeAugustMedium New Construction - New Homes Standard ProtocolDevelopment of new Standard ProtocolAugust/SeptemberHigh Cooking Equipment - Pre-Rinse Spray ValvesUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberLow Grocery - Anti-sweat Heater ControlsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberLow Res Lighting - High Performance T8 LampsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberMedium Res New Cosntruction - Slab InsulationUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeDecemberLow Res Lighting - CFL and LED Screw-in LampsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeJanuaryHigh Ind Compressed Air (SP)Bring protocol into compliance with the guidelinesUndefinedHigh VFDs - Dairy Milking Machine Vacuum Pump (SP)Bring protocol into compliance with the guidelinesUndefinedHigh Res Lighting - LED FixturesDevelop new UESUndefinedMedium Weatherization - Low-e Storm Windows MultifamilyDevelop new UESUndefinedLow Res Heating/Cooling - DHP for MultifamilyDevelop new UESUndefinedMedium 10 – 2016 Work Plan

11. Planned Work for 2016 MeasureWork Anticipated Anticipated Meeting Date Resource Needs Guidelines RevisionsUpdate GuidelinesOngoingMedium Weatherization - MultifamilyApprove Planning estimates and Research StrategyMarchLow New Construction - ENERGY STAR Homes MultifamilyApprove Planning estimates and Research StrategyMarch/AprilLow Standard Information Workbook UpdatesUpdate for Seventh Plan AssumptionsMarch/AprilMedium Variable Frequency Drives - Irrigation Pump Motor (SP)Update protocol, as needed (sunset date extension needed)AprilMedium Res Heating/Cooling - Electronic ThermostatsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetime (or deactivate)MayLow Grocery - Display Case LEDsUpdate Proven savings estimates, costs, and lifetimeJuneLow Res DHW - ShowerheadsUpdate Proven savings estimates, costs, and lifetimeJuneMedium Non-Residential Lighting - Retrofits SPDevelop revised protocol (rethinking the structure)JuneHigh Non-Residential Lighting - Code Compliant SPDevelop new protocol, based on structure for retrofits workAfter JuneHigh Res Behavior Impact Evaluation GuidanceDevelop Impact Evaluation Guidance (first of its kind)June/JulyHigh Res DHW - Heat Pump Water HeatersUpdate savings, costs, and lifetime and check in on researchJulyMedium Res Advanced Power Strips - IR-sensingCheck in on researchAugustLow Res Heating/Cooling - Ground Source Heat Pump UpgradesUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeAugustMedium New Construction - New Homes Standard ProtocolDevelopment of new Standard ProtocolAugust/SeptemberHigh Cooking Equipment - Pre-Rinse Spray ValvesUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberLow Grocery - Anti-sweat Heater ControlsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberLow Res Lighting - High Performance T8 LampsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeSeptemberMedium Res New Cosntruction - Slab InsulationUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeDecemberLow Res Lighting - CFL and LED Screw-in LampsUpdate savings, costs, and lifetimeJanuaryHigh Ind Compressed Air (SP)Bring protocol into compliance with the guidelinesUndefinedHigh VFDs - Dairy Milking Machine Vacuum Pump (SP)Bring protocol into compliance with the guidelinesUndefinedHigh Res Lighting - LED FixturesDevelop new UESUndefinedMedium Weatherization - Low-e Storm Windows MultifamilyDevelop new UESUndefinedLow Res Heating/Cooling - DHP for MultifamilyDevelop new UESUndefinedMedium 11 – 2016 Work Plan

12. New Measure Proposals Web-Enabled Thermostats / Optimization Layers for Web-Enabled Thermostats Pump Systems Standard Protocol 12

13. Optimization Layer for Web-Enable Thermostats 13 – Web-Enabled Tstat

14. Measure Background Measure Name:Optimization Layer for Web-enabled Thermostat Measure Category:Impact Evaluation Guidance? Measure Sector:Residential, Commercial End-Use:HVAC Proposing Party:WeatherBug Home Interested Party:BPA, ETO Regional Potential:Unknown 14 – Web-Enabled Tstat

15. Measure Development History, Timeline Measure Specification: Cloud-based adjustments of residential, web-enabled thermostat setpoints – Could identify specific strategies used to achieve savings Objective: minimize HVAC energy within user specified constraints (setpoint schedule) Savings Estimation Procedure: Billing analysis 15 – Web-Enabled Tstat

16. Example: WeatherBug Home Spatially granular weather stations Thermodynamic model of home built from thermostat information (indoor temperature, HVAC signal) and granular weather data Potential savings through compressor optimization, minimizing resistance heating for heat pumps, load-shifting, skipping partial cycles Service works with many different web-enabled thermostats Two impact evaluations provided – A/C in Austin, TX (not an experimental design: treatment = those that enabled optimization features, control = those that didn’t) A/C 300 to 500 kWh/yr – A/C and gas furnaces in MA A/C 0 to 400 kWh/yr Gas Heat -30 to +30 therms/yr 16 – Web-enabled Tstat

17. Measure Scoping CAT discussions with Robert Weber (BPA), Paul Sklar (ETO), Bobbette Wilhelm (Idaho Falls), Ken Agnew (DNV-GL) Utilities are interested in this measure (for residential and commercial) Would like savings estimates to justify pilots, get the products to market Creating a UES measure might not be possible – Products and their implementation may be too variable – Continuous evolution of products is a challenge to research Consider examining specific features of products to understand savings mechanisms Move from proven UES paradigm to real-time evaluation/continuous M&V 17 – Web-Enabled Tstat

18. The RTF’s Challenge A newer breed of measures challenges our measure-creation process – Savings dependent on proprietary algorithms – Algorithms can evolve during measure life – Programs may target specific customer segments – Unpredictable measure interaction – Savings may change by the time development process is complete: planning > funding > provisional > research > proven How can the RTF be of service? – Evaluation methods – Summary of findings (to support program planning) – Other? 18 – Web-Enabled Tstat

19. What kind of measure is this? UES: Probably not, as impacts likely to vary by: – Brand of optimization service (and service may evolve…) – Customer segment – Heating system type – Interacting measures: e.g., brand of thermostat and any optimization features built into the thermostat behavior-based program – promoting the use of aggressive setbacks Standard Protocol: Probably not, as no simplified method of evaluation has been identified Impact Evaluation Guidance: CAT/Staff recommendation – Provide guidance on research design – Applicability of evaluation results to different years, cohorts Note: RTF has yet to develop “Impact Evaluation Guidance.” CAT/Staff propose to first complete Residential Behavior-Based Program Impact Evaluation Guidance – Use this experience to inform handling of Optimization Layer for T-Stats and other measures with similar characteristics 19 – Web-Enabled Tstat

20. Commercial & Industrial Pump Systems 20 – Pump Systems

21. Measure Background Measure Name:Commercial and Industrial Pump Systems Measure Category:Standard Protocol Measure Sector:Commercial and Industrial End-Use:Pump Systems Proposing Party:RTF/BPA Interested Party:BPA, NEEA, ETO Regional Potential:Unknown 21 – Pump Systems

22. History RTF had an active, provisional standard protocol for pump VFDs from 2013 to 2015pump VFDs In May of 2015 the RTF chose to deactivate the protocol – Limited applicability – Limited regional interest Some members of RTF also expressed interest in building a protocol around an upcoming DOE pump rulemaking and test procedure 22 – Pump Systems

23. Recent DOE Pump Rulemaking New rule and test procedure for pump systems has been released and becomes effective February 24, 2016rule and test procedure Pump system includes pump controls if sold together New test procedure will be used to rate pump systems with a Pump Energy Index (PEI), which may provide a simpler and more consistent means of computing energy savings – Analogous to how Modified Energy Factor (MEF) and Water Factor (WF) are used to compute clothes washer savings 23 – Pump Systems

24. Regional Interest A number of regional entities are interested in developing efficiency measures around the new DOE work, including NEEA, BPA, ETO, and SBW Work has begun to review the new rule, test procedure, and accompanying data to understand what regional efforts and measures are possible Measure proposals are expected to come to the RTF later this year 24 – Pump Systems

25. Staff Recommendation on New Measure Proposals 25 – Staff Recommendation

26. Staff Recommendation Optimization Layer for Web-Enabled Thermostats – Focus resource on completing Residential Behavior Impact Evaluation Guidance first – Scope out web-enabled thermostats or optimization layer for web-enabled thermostats work after residential behavior work is complete Commercial and Industrial Pump Systems – Allocate some resource to track the progress of pumps systems work and participate in scoping discussions – Report back to RTF at August New Measure Proposal review 26 – Staff Recommendation

27. Proposed Motion “I _________ move to: direct Staff hold off on further scoping a Optimization Layer for Web-enabled Thermostats measure until the Residential Behavior-Based Program Impact Evaluation Guidance is developed allocate resource to tracking pump systems work and scoping of potential measure development with interested parties.” 27 – Proposed Motion