1. World Food Production

2. Some definitions Tonne – 1000 kg or a metric ton – ton 2240 lbs but everywhere in the world but US uses metric and ton is pretty standard for 1000 kg Hectare – ha – an area 100m x 100 m (slightly larger than a football field) Kilo-Calorie – measure of food energy – in food refers to the energy capable of heating 1 kg of water 1 degree celsius. In scientific language we now use the joule – equal to 4.2 kilocalories

3. In fifteen years, the famines will be catastrophic and revolutions and social turmoil and economic upheavals will sweep areas of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The collision is inevitable. The famines are inevitable. From “Famine 1975!” William and Paul Paddock 1967 July 21, 2011 On Wednesday, the United Nations declared famine in two southern Somalia regions. A UN definition of famine entails that at least 20 percent of households face extreme food shortages, acute malnutrition in over 30 percent of people, and two deaths per 10,000 people every day.

4. From The Atlas of Food

5. Growth in global cereal production

6. Source Godfray 2010

8. Source Hall et al. World Fish Center

9. Why Famine 1975 didn’t happen World food production increased faster than the human population

10. How does food production increase? Total yield = area planted times yield per area Increase in land used Increase in yield per area – Better genetic strains of crops – Increased inputs Fertilizer Water Pest control

12. Yield per area of US crops

13. World per-capita cereal production, 1951–1997. Dyson T PNAS 1999;96:5929-5936 ©1999 by National Academy of Sciences

14. Per-capita cereal production by world region, 1951–1997. Dyson T PNAS 1999;96:5929-5936 ©1999 by National Academy of Sciences

15. Foodgrain yield per acre in india

21. Yield per HAArea Total Output Brazil2.61.84.8 India2.71.02.8 United Republic of Tanzania1.44.15.6 United States of America2.90.92.6 Amount of increase from 1961-2009

22. How were the increases in yield per ha achieved?

23. Photosynthesis Plants convert sunlight to sugars by biochemical magic

24. What do plants need

25. A seed (or seedling)

26. Light energy

27. water

28. Carbon dioxide (air)

29. soil

30. Is that all?

31. Brian Bue’s wife’s farm Palmer Alaska You need sunlight and HEAT: a growing season

32. Nutrients

33. Weed control

34. Pest Control

35. The plant food system Seed Soil Water Nutrients Sunlight Temperature Air Protection from weeds, pests

36. Can food production be sustained Look at each of these inputs -- can it continue forever?

37. The plant food system Seed – loss of genetic diversity Soil – soil erosion Water – limits for irrigation potential Nutrients – are we running out Sunlight – doesn’t seem to be a problem Temperature – probably not a problem Air – lots of CO 2 Protection from weeds, pests – development of resistance

38. The green revolution Genetic improvements in cereal grains Synthetic fertilizers Added use of pesticides More use of irrigation Most impacts were in Asia Largely credited with preventing world famine

39. The production of animal protein Wild capture – Capture fisheries – 80 million tonnes – Bushmeat – no estimates but small Grazing – Primarily beef and goats – Small proportion of world total animal production but very large portion of earth is grazed – Some significant aquaculture - shellfish Plant food inputs – Almost all chicken, pork, US and European beef – Significant aquaculture (e.g. farmed salmon) Animal feed inputs – Primarily fish into livestock and aquaculture

42. The future of food production Has the green revolution peaked? The impact of climate change The role of genetically modified organisms The environmental costs of past and future increases in food production – Clearing forests – More fertilizer, pesticide and water

43. Study Questions How many kcal are available per day for people in the richest countries? How many kcal are available per day for people in the poorest countries? How much has world production of major grains increased since 1960? What form of livestock meat has increased the most since 1960. What was the primary reason that the famines forecast in the 1960s did not happen? What were the two primary mechanisms that world food production increased from 1960 to 2000? What are the four primary ways the yield per area planted was increased? What is the world per capita per day production of major grains and cereals (in KG). What was the Green Revolution and where did it have the biggest impact? Rank in order of yield per area planted the US., sub Saharan Africa, India and China. What is the major difference in how food production was increased between Brazil and the U.S? List the necessary conditions for plant growth. What fraction of global cereal production is used as animal feed.

44. Readings Famine 1975: a historical perspective on concern and an introduction to apocalyptic literature Godfray: a recent review of potential food production Kaufman: overview of agriculture

45. The end Extra slides follow

46. Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S. M., and Toulmin, C. 2010. Food Security: The challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People. Science. 327: 812-8818. Millstone, E., and Lang, T. 2008. The Atlas of Food: Who eats what, where and why. University of California Press, Berkeley.

47. World cereal yield, 1951–1997. Dyson T PNAS 1999;96:5929-5936 ©1999 by National Academy of Sciences

48. World cereals: prices, stocks, and donations, 1960–1997. Dyson T PNAS 1999;96:5929-5936 ©1999 by National Academy of Sciences