1. Global Food Security: defusing the ticking time-bombs Nature & Society Forum Canberra, March 20, 2013 Julian Cribb FTSE

2. Goal: feed >10 bn from 2060-2130 Global food demand Food demand to double

3. A ‘wicked’ problem... DEMAND: 216,000 more people every day More babies + longer lives Population peak >10-11 bn Food demand soars in emerging economies Food demand +100% by 2060s +>50% climate penalty by 2100 CONSTRAINTS: ‘Peak water’ ‘Peak land’ ‘Peak oil’ ‘Peak P’ ‘Peak fish’ ‘R&D drought’ ‘Capital drought’ ‘Climate extinction’

4. Peak water Retreating rivers Vanishing lakes Groundwater mining Shrinking glaciers We each use > Disappearing deltas

5. The expert’s view “To feed 9 billion will require 14000 cu kms of water – twice our present use...or >50 more Aswan dams (11,000 SydHarbs) These vast amounts are not available” - Colin Chartres

6. Water timebomb Critical scarcity: Indo- Gangetic Plain, N China Plain, M-East, N-Africa. Energy sector: water demand to double. Cities: water demand to double. Will we have to double food production on half the water?

7. Soil timebomb “The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75 to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues at present rates, it is estimated that there is only another 48 years of topsoil left.” - Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006

8. Peak land Source: FAO SOLAW Report 2011  Peak land 2000

9. “... land and water systems now face the risk of progressive breakdown of their productive capacity due to excessive demographic pressure and unsustainable agricultural practices.” practices.” - FAO SOLAW Report 2011

10. Megacities: mega-risks By 2050... 7-8 billion will live in cities Total urban area = China Urban water use 2800 cu kms Cities cannot feed themselves By 2020s...

11. Peak oil: 2006 Food uses 30% of global energy: FAO Food & oil prices are in lockstep  61m new vehicles/year  1.2 billion vehicles by 2020  Car growth +8% yr  Oil production growth +0.7%

12. Why we must recycle nutrients Peak phosphorus  < 30-50% of world’s food is currently wasted or lost post- harvest Resources for artificial fertilisers will Be scarce by 2050 >

13. Peak fish: 2004 “The maximum wild capture fishery potential from the world’s oceans has probably been reached.” – FAO 2012 But total fish demand could be 220mt or more by 2060. By 2060 we will need: 100m tonnes more fish 100m tonnes more fish 5 bn tonnes of stock feed 5 bn tonnes of stock feed new sources of transport fuel new sources of transport fuel = massive aquaculture opportunities....

14. Knowledge drought  R&D stagnation Falling ag.science Falling crop yields Global food R&D investment

15. Climate impact on food 10% less food for every 1 o of global warming 10% less food for every 1 o of global warming Metabolic impacts in the tropics Metabolic impacts in the tropics Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2 o Farming ‘highly vulnerable’ above 2 o Need 150% more food than today by 2100. Need 150% more food than today by 2100. + 4-6 o C warming by 2100

16. Famine drives conflict Map: UK MoD

17. The challenge To double global food output with: - half the present fresh water - much less land - no fossil fuels (eventually) - scarce and costly fertilisers - less technology - inadequate $ investment - growing climate instability.

18. Solutions... Reinvent farming & food systems: sustainable, low-input eco-farming Reinvest massively in food S&T Reinvent the global diet: so it kills less planet & fewer people Redesign cities: to recycle water, nutrients, carbon and grow food.

19. The future ecofarm automation Combines best from advanced high-tech systems with permaculture thinking and automation Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient recycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation Operates at small and large scales, across landscapes Desert farm

20. Urban farms: 30- 50% of world’s food

21. Fish farming World demand for 550 million tonnes of meat and fish by 2100, +2 billion tonnes of feed.

22. Algae boom chemicals, textiles, drugs. By 2050 algae will supply much of the world’s liquid fuels, food, stockfeed, plastics, chemicals, textiles, drugs.

23. Bioculture boom

24. New crops: 25,000 edible plants

25. Our task now Pioneer eco-farming: more food with less water, energy, land, inputs Share food and ag knowledge globally Diets for health and sustainability Cities that recycle water, nutrients into novel food systems Inspire society with a new respect for food Understand that food is intrinsic to a safe, sustainable and peaceful world.

26. Debate global food security on: www.sciencealert.com.au/global- Thank you “The Coming Famine” is published by the University of California Press and CSIRO Publishing. It was supported by the Crawford Fund and Land & Water Australia. Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/ComingFamine