1. Applying Population Ecology: Human Population and Urbanization Chapter 7

2. Core Case Study: Ecocity in Brazil (1)  Curitiba – “ecological capital” of Brazil  Inexpensive, efficient mass transit  High-rise apartments near bus routes, mixed- use structures  Bike and pedestrian paths

3. Core Case Study: Ecocity in Brazil (2)  1.5 million trees planted  Recycling  Build-it-yourself system for poor  Emphasis on ecological awareness, health, literacy

4. Curitiba, Brazil Fig. 7-1, p. 123

5. 7-1 How Many People Can the Earth Support?  Concept 7-1 We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans without seriously degrading the life- support systems for us and many other species.

6. Human Population Explosion  Exponential growth (J-curve) in past 200 years  Three major reasons Ability to expand into diverse habitats Emergence( 出現 ) of agriculture Sanitation systems and control of infectious diseases

7. Hunting and gathering Agricultural revolution Industrial revolution Black Death—the Plague Industrial revolution Fig. 1-1, p. 5

8. How Long Can the Human Population Grow  Rate slowing, but still exponential  Uneven global growth  No population can grow indefinitely  2050 global estimates: 7.2–10.6 billion people  97% growth in developing countries

9. UN World Population Projections Fig. 7-3, p. 126

10. Human Alteration of the Environment Fig. 7-2, p. 125

11. Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? (1)  Resources for growing population?  Positive viewpoint Technological solutions Growing population--as a value resource  Negative viewpoint 20% currently lack necessities Declining conditions increase death rate Resource use already degrade environment

12. Case Study: Are There Too Many of Us? (2)  Optimum sustainable population  Cultural carrying capacity

13. 7-2 What Factors Influence Population Size?  Concept 7-2A Population size increases because of births and immigration and decreases through deaths and emigration.  Concept 7-2B The average number of children born to women in a population (total fertility rate) is the key factor that determines the population size.

14. Population Change  Population change = (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration)  Demographers look at birth rates and death rates

15. Most Populous Countries

16. Fig. 7-4, p. 127 Japan China India USA 1.3 billion 1.5 billion 1.1 billion 1.4 billion 302 million 349 million 282 million 271 million 169 million 229 million 189 million 229 million 144 million 205 million 149 million 190 million 142 million 128 million 119 million 128 million Indonesia Pakistan Brazil Nigeria Bangladesh Russia

17. Number of Children  Fertility rates affect population size and growth rate  Replacement-level fertility rate  Total fertility rate (TFR)

18. Case Study: The U.S. Population Is Growing Rapidly  Quadrupled in 100 years, despite oscillations in TFR  Baby boom: High TFR  Current births outnumbering deaths and legal immigration  Growing faster than other developed countries

19. Fertility Rate of the U.S. Population

20. Fig. 7-5, p. 128 Baby boom (1946–64) Replacement level

21. Changes in the U.S. Population

22. Fig. 7-6, p. 129 5.8 Life expectancy Married women working outside the home High school graduates Homes with flush toilets Homes with electricity Living in suburbs Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation) Homicides per 100,000 people 47 years 77 years 8% 81% 15% 83% 10% 98% 2% 99% 10% 52% $3 $15 1.2

23. Factors Affecting Birth Rates (1)  Importance of children as part of labor force  Cost of raising and educating children  Availability of retirement systems  Urbanization  Educational and employment opportunities for women

24. Factors Affecting Birth Rates (2)  Infant mortality rate  Average marriage age  Availability of legal abortion and reliable birth control methods  Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms

25. Factors Affecting Death Rates  Population growth also response to decline in crude death rate  Life expectancy and infant mortality rate important indicators of overall health  Average life expectancy increased  Infant mortality – barometer( 氣壓計 ) of a society’s quality of life

26. Migration  Migration driven by economic desires  Other reasons Religious persecution( 迫害 ) Political oppression( 壓迫 ) Ethnic conflicts( 種族衝突 ) Wars Environmental degradation

27. Case Study: The United States (1)  Nation of immigrants  1820–1960: Most immigrants European  Since 1960 Latin America – 53% Asia – 25% Europe – 14%

28. Case Study: The United States (2)  Opponents of immigration Stabilize population sooner Reduce growing environmental impact 60% of population favor reducing immigration  Proponents of immigration Important historical role Do menial( 卑賤的 ) jobs and pay taxes Add cultural vitality( 活力 ) Replace retiring baby boomers

29. Legal Immigration

30. Fig. 7-7, p. 130 1907 Great Depression 1914 New laws restrict immigration

31. 7-3 How Does a Population’s Age Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline?  Concept 7-3 The numbers of males and females in young, middle, and older age groups determine how fast populations grow or decline.

32. Population Age Structures

33. Fig. 7-8, p. 131 Declining Germany Bulgaria Russia Male Female Male Female Male Female MaleFemale Expanding Rapidly Guatemala Nigeria Saudi Arabia Expanding Slowly United States Australia China Stable Japan Italy Greece

34. Age Structure  Distribution of population Prereproductive Reproductive Postreproductive  Country with many young people grows rapidly  Country with many older people will decline  Developing countries >30% under 15 years old

35. Global Connections Fig. 7-9, p. 132

36. Age Structure Predicts the Future  50% of U.S. population baby boomers  Graying of America  2043 – 25% of population over 65  Changes the economy

37. Tracking the Baby Boomers Fig. 7-10, p. 132

38. Stepped Art 2035 2015 1985 1955

39. Declines Occur in Aging Populations  “Baby bust” or “birth dearth” – TFR below 1.5 children per couple  Labor shortages  Strain on governments for public services  Fewer taxpayers

40. Rapid Population Decline Fig. 7-11, p. 133

41. Rising Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy  Disrupts social, economic structure  Removes productive young adults  Next 50 years, 278 million will die (mostly African)  Eight African countries 16–39% infected adults  Life expectancy 30–40 years

42. 7-4 How Can We Slow Population Growth?  Concept 7-4 Experience indicates that the most effective ways to slow population growth are to invest in family planning, to reduce poverty, and to elevate the status of women.

43. Stages of Demographic Transition  Preindustrial  Transitional – demographic trap  Industrial  Postindustrial

44. Stages of Demographic Transition

45. Fig. 7-12, p. 134 Death rate Stage 1 Preindustrial Stage 2 Transitional Stage 3 Industrial Stage 4 Postindustrial Population grows rapidly because birth rates are high and death rates drop because of improved food production and health Population growth slows as both birth and death rates drop because of improved food production, health, and education Population growth levels off and then declines as birth rates equal and then fall below death rates Population grows very slowly because of a high birth rate (to com- pensate for high infant mortality) and a high death rate Birth rate Total population

46. Family Planning (1)  Birth spacing, birth control, health care  Increased availability of contraception  55% drop in TFR of developing countries  Developing countries Almost half pregnancies unplanned Lack access to family planning

47. Empowering Women Can Slow Population Growth  Educated women have fewer children  Illiterate woman 64% of world’s population, 70% of the poor  When daughters considered less valuable, not sent to school

48. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China (1)  Half birth rate and drastically reduce TFR (5.7→1.6)  Improved quality of life  Strict family planning  Sons still preferred – gender imbalance

49. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in China (2)  Population rapidly aging  Rapidly growing economy  Larger middle class increases resource consumption and waste  Sustainable economic plan needed to avoid environmental degradation

50. Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in India  Tried to slow population growth for five decades  Most populous country in 2015  Problems increase with growing population Poverty Malnutrition Environmental degradation Growing middle class – resource consumption

51. 7-5 What Are the Major Population and Environmental Problems of Urban Areas?  Concept 7-5 Cities can improve individual lives, but most cities are unsustainable because of high levels of resource use, waste, pollution, and poverty.

52. Urban Living  Half the world lives in urban areas  80% of Americans in cities  Urban areas continue to grow Natural increase Immigration

53. Major Trends in Urban Growth  Proportion of urban global population growing (1850, 2% → 2007, 50%)  Number and sizes of urban areas mushrooming (megacity)  Rapid increase in urban populations in developing countries(2007→2030, 43%→56%)  Urban growth slower in developed nations(75%→84%)  Poverty increasing

54. Urban Areas and Megacities Fig. 7-13, p. 138

55. Case Study: Urbanization in the United States  1800–2007, increased population 5–80% in urban areas  Migration patterns  Better working and housing conditions compared to the past  Problems in urban areas

56. Major Urban Centers in the United States Fig. 7-14, p. 139

57. Urban Sprawl  Gobbling up countryside  Causes Prosperity ( 繁榮 ) Ample and affordable land Automobiles Cheap gasoline Poor urban planning

58. Urban Sprawl Around Las Vegas Fig. 7-15, p. 139

59. Stepped Art

60. Consequences of Urban Sprawl  Inadequate mass transportation  Need to drive everywhere  Decreased energy efficiency  Traffic congestion  Destruction of prime cropland, forests, wetlands

61. Undesirable Impacts of Urban Sprawl Fig. 7-16, p. 140

62. U.S. Megalopolis ( 巨大都市 ): Bowash Fig. 7-17, p. 140

63. Advantages of Urbanization  Economic development  Innovation  Education and jobs  Technological advances  Recycling more economically feasible  Longer life spans

64. Disadvantages of Urbanization  Unsustainable systems (consume a lot of resources)  Lack of vegetation  Water problems  Pollution and health problems  Noise pollution  Climate and artificial light (Urban heat islands, Light pollution)

65. Urban Areas Are Rarely Sustainable

66. Fig. 7-18, p. 141 Information Inputs Energy Food Water Raw materials Manufactured goods Money Outputs Solid wastes Waste heat Air pollutants Water pollutants Greenhouse gases Manufactured goods Noise Wealth Ideas

67. Noise Levels

68. Fig. 7-19, p. 142 Permanent damage begins after 8-hour exposure Noise Levels (in dbA) Earphones at loud level Normal breathing Whisper Quiet rural area Quiet room Rainfall Normal conversation Vacuum cleaner Average factory Lawn mower Chain saw Rock music Thunderclap (nearby) Military rifle Boom cars Air raid siren

69. Urban Poor in Developing Countries  Slums  Shantytowns and squatter settlements  Lack of basic services

70. Living in a Shantytown Fig. 7-20, p. 143

71. Case Study: Mexico City  Large population (2004, 18.3million)  Severe noise, water, and air pollution  50% unemployment  >33% live in barrios (slums)  100,000 premature deaths per year  3 million without sewer  Fecal snow  Geography contributes to air pollution  Progress – tree planting and lower air pollution

72. 7-6 How Does Transportation Affect Urban Development?  Concept 7-6 A combination of plentiful land, inexpensive fuel, and an expanding network of highways results in dispersed cities that depend on motor vehicles for most transportation.

73. Cities Can Grow Outward or Upward  Compact cities Transportation by walking, biking, or mass transit Hong Kong, Tokyo  Dispersed cities Transportation by automobile Most American cities

74. Automobiles in the United States  <10% of world’s population own 1/3 of cars  Gas guzzlers ( 酒鬼 )  40,000 people per year die from auto accidents  Largest source of air pollution  Lead to urban sprawl and congestion

75. Reduce Automobile Use  User-pays system  Full-cost pricing  Tax revenues to finance mass transit, bike paths, sidewalks  High gasoline tax unlikely  Need to discourage automobile use

76. Alternatives to Cars  Bicycles  Mass transit systems in urban areas  Bus systems  Rapid rail

77. Trade-offs: Bicycles Fig. 7-21, p. 145

78. Trade-offs: Mass Transit Rail Fig. 7-22, p. 145

79. Trade-offs: Buses Fig. 7-23, p. 146

80. Trade-offs: Rapid Rail Fig. 7-24, p. 146

81. 7-7 How Can Cities Become More Sustainable and Livable?  Concept 7-7 An ecocity allows people to: choose walking, biking, or mass transit for most transportation needs; recycle or reuse most of their waste; grow much of their food; and protect biodiversity by preserving surrounding land.

82. Environmentally Sustainable Cities  Smart growth  Ecocities Build and design people-oriented cities Use energy and matter efficiently Prevent pollution and reduce waste Recycle, reuse, and compost Protect and encourage biodiversity

83. Smart Growth and New Urbanism Fig. 7-25, p. 147