1. Class 7 – Emerging Powers in Comparative Perspective Dr. Vinícius Rodrigues Vieira (Postdoctoral Researcher) IRI-USP, São Paulo, 4 April 2016

7.  However, has India achieved greatness yet?  Narlikar (2011)  NOT  The country has not generated much in its favor in international politics;  Furthermore, India has not taken much responsability either.  What does it mean to take responsability in world politics?

8. Power Military Structural (Norms) CulturalEconomic Hard Power Soft Power Realists Liberals emphasis on conflict emphasis on cooperation

9.  But some analystis think India is responsible...  Stuenkel (2013, 413-414) lists some evidence:  India has experienced unprecedented growth and stability since the end of the Cold War;  Pursuit of a permanent seat on the UN Security Council;  More responsibility in institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank;  I would also add its enthusiasm with the BRICS’ Bank  The New Development Bank (NDB);  Recognition by the US as a Nuclear Power  MILITARY!!!

12.  Indian nuclear enterprise was initially not well received by the established powers!!!  First tests in 1974;  The country has never joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT);  Tests in 1998 in the context of a rising China, a turbulent Pakistan, and a decling Russia at that time;1998  Former USSR used to be a major Indian partner!!!  How did the established powers reacted?

13.  Sanctions!!!  Japan (all aid but humanitarian)  United States  Cut off all assistance except humanitarian;  Banned the export of defence material and technologies,  End of American credit and credit guarantees to India;  Opposition of lending by the World Bank and the IMF.  Did it hold for a long time???  2001 they were lifted!!!

14.  2005: US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement  In practice, the recognition of India’s status as a nuclear power!!!

15.  2005: US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement “India had achieved the improbable: despite its refusal to accept a global treaty, it transformed itself from a pariah into an accepted partner - a triumph that reflected India’s newfound strategic weight” (Stuenkel, 2008: 422)

16.  Quick task: in pairs, discuss which type of power attracts the US the most in using India as potential counterweight against China?  Military;  Economic;  Structural.

21.  India is a hard negotiator  The country that says “NO”; ... But must provide public goods if it actually wants to be a great power  emphasis on structural power;  Reform of current institutions, yet with different substantive views (commitment with non-intervention);  NOT revisionist + US regards India as being more trustworthy than China while backed by military and economic power as well  Responsible Stakeholder;  Yet domestic and regional constraints may limit the rise.

23. “The possibility of an intimate US–India military relationship has generated fears of encirclement in Beijing. India’s position astride China’s key maritime shipping lanes has made the prospect of a Washington–Delhi axis particularly worrisome… Not surprisingly, recent revelations about China’s shift away from a three-decades- old cautious approach on Jammu and Kashmir, its increasing military presence in Pakistan, its planning of infrastructure linking Xinjiang and Gwadar” (Pant, 2013: 3)

29.  China may encircle India (literally)!!!

31.  Regional organizations (Jain, 2011: 231)  “Member of virtually all important Asian regional organizations except Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)”;  “Frustration with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been a dragging anchor and not a launching pad…”  Continous frustration??? Cold War idea of Pan- Asianism never really took off!!!

32.  SAARC

33.  Regional organizations (Jain, 2011: 231)  Pursuit of other regions transcending South Asia.  IBSA as a regional organization??? In part…  South Africa (yes!!!  Let’s wait for a moment…);  Brazil (no!!!  located in South America).  Farewell to idealism as a Non-Alligment legacy from the Cold War in order to avoid frustration…  Remember: great powers, great responsibilities…  So what are the other options available at hand?

34.  India-ASEAN Free Trade Area (2009)

35.  ASEAN Free-Trade Agreements (playing all cards)

36.  More ambitious proposal!!!  Consolidation of ASEAN + 3  Proposal of an Asian Economic Community  Look East Policy (Jain, 2011)  Yet India’s region also extends to its West...  Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA)  Established in 1997.

42.  India also plays with mulitple cards!!! (PTAs)

43.  For all this at the regional level, India has been forced to flex its muscles beyond economic power;  By contrast, for instance Brazil does not face the same level of competition within South America...